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Calibrated predictions slate

UFC Fight Night: Song vs. Figueiredo

May 30, 2026Macau, China13 of 13 calibrated matchup cards liveFull slate live

This surface shows the governed calibrated stack honestly: probability splits, model reasons, and the caveats that matter when volatility or weak regimes are present.

premium stack
What this page is actually doing
  • Shows calibrated probabilities from the governed production alias rather than raw heuristic certainty.
  • Carries volatility and regime caveats forward instead of hiding them behind premium copy.
  • Keeps event rendering tied to real API outputs and real fighter identity data.
Bantamweight
guarded
Deiveson Figueiredo
vs
Song Yadong
lean
calibrated lean
Song Yadong
66% calibrated win probability for the current lean, but guarded by volatility or weak-regime caveats
Deiveson Figueiredo
34%
Song Yadong
66%
why the model leans this way

Song Yadong projects ahead on current measurable form and matchup profile. Deiveson Figueiredo holds the clearer grappling edge Song Yadong has the stronger proven sample in this division Empirical calibration applied from historical outcome bins.

  • Deiveson Figueiredo shows the clearer grappling edge
Risk flags
  • Both fighters carry high finish volatility
Uncertainty / caveats
  • High-volatility matchup: finish variance is elevated and certainty should be discounted.
  • Probability is shown through the calibrated presentation layer built from baseline-v4-clean.
Heavyweight
guarded
Tallison Teixeira
vs
Sergei Pavlovich
lean
calibrated lean
Sergei Pavlovich
64% calibrated win probability for the current lean, but guarded by volatility or weak-regime caveats
Tallison Teixeira
36%
Sergei Pavlovich
64%
why the model leans this way

Sergei Pavlovich projects ahead on current measurable form and matchup profile. Tallison Teixeira holds the clearer form edge Tallison Teixeira holds the clearer activity edge Sergei Pavlovich has the stronger proven sample in this division Empirical calibration applied from historical outcome bins.

  • Tallison Teixeira shows the clearer form edge
  • Tallison Teixeira shows the clearer activity edge
Risk flags
  • Both fighters carry high finish volatility
Uncertainty / caveats
  • High-volatility matchup: finish variance is elevated and certainty should be discounted.
  • Probability is shown through the calibrated presentation layer built from baseline-v4-clean.
Light Heavyweight
guarded
Zhang Mingyang
vs
Alonzo Menifield
lean
calibrated lean
Alonzo Menifield
51% calibrated win probability for the current lean, but guarded by volatility or weak-regime caveats
Zhang Mingyang
49%
Alonzo Menifield
51%
why the model leans this way

Alonzo Menifield projects ahead on current measurable form and matchup profile. Zhang Mingyang holds the clearer form edge Alonzo Menifield has the stronger proven sample in this division Empirical calibration applied from historical outcome bins.

  • Zhang Mingyang shows the clearer form edge
Risk flags
  • Both fighters carry high finish volatility
Uncertainty / caveats
  • High-volatility matchup: finish variance is elevated and certainty should be discounted.
  • Probability is shown through the calibrated presentation layer built from baseline-v4-clean.
Middleweight
guarded
Luis Felipe Dias
lean
vs
Yi Sak Lee
calibrated lean
Luis Felipe Dias
66% calibrated win probability for the current lean, but guarded by volatility or weak-regime caveats
Luis Felipe Dias
66%
Yi Sak Lee
34%
why the model leans this way

Luis Felipe Dias projects ahead on current measurable form and matchup profile. Luis Felipe Dias holds the clearer grappling edge Luis Felipe Dias has the clearer incumbency edge in this division Division-transition caution: Luis Felipe Dias is only in a second fight in this division; Yi Sak Lee is making a division debut. Empirical calibration applied from historical outcome bins.

  • Luis Felipe Dias shows the clearer grappling edge
Risk flags
  • Luis Felipe Dias low recent sample
  • Yi Sak Lee low recent sample
  • Yi Sak Lee division debut
Uncertainty / caveats
  • Luis Felipe Dias is only in a second fight in this division
  • Yi Sak Lee is making a division debut
  • At least one fighter has thin recent sample coverage behind the proxy stats
  • Probability is shown through the calibrated presentation layer built from baseline-v4-clean.
Welterweight
guarded
Muslim Salikhov
vs
Jake Matthews
lean
calibrated lean
Jake Matthews
66% calibrated win probability for the current lean, but guarded by volatility or weak-regime caveats
Muslim Salikhov
34%
Jake Matthews
66%
why the model leans this way

Jake Matthews projects ahead on current measurable form and matchup profile. Jake Matthews holds the clearer form edge Jake Matthews holds the clearer grappling edge Jake Matthews has the stronger proven sample in this division Empirical calibration applied from historical outcome bins.

  • Jake Matthews shows the clearer form edge
  • Jake Matthews shows the clearer grappling edge
Risk flags
  • Both fighters carry high finish volatility
Uncertainty / caveats
  • High-volatility matchup: finish variance is elevated and certainty should be discounted.
  • Probability is shown through the calibrated presentation layer built from baseline-v4-clean.
Welterweight
guarded
Jose Henrique
vs
Ding Meng
lean
calibrated lean
Ding Meng
66% calibrated win probability for the current lean, but guarded by volatility or weak-regime caveats
Jose Henrique
34%
Ding Meng
66%
why the model leans this way

Ding Meng projects ahead on current measurable form and matchup profile. Jose Henrique holds the clearer activity edge Ding Meng holds the clearer grappling edge Division-transition caution: Ding Meng is only in a second fight in this division; At least one fighter has thin recent sample coverage behind the proxy stats. Empirical calibration applied from historical outcome bins.

  • Jose Henrique shows the clearer activity edge
  • Ding Meng shows the clearer grappling edge
Risk flags
  • Ding Meng long layoff
  • Jose Henrique low recent sample
  • Ding Meng low recent sample
Uncertainty / caveats
  • Ding Meng is only in a second fight in this division
  • At least one fighter has thin recent sample coverage behind the proxy stats
  • Probability is shown through the calibrated presentation layer built from baseline-v4-clean.
Featherweight
guarded
Zhu Kangjie
lean
vs
Ramon Taveras
calibrated lean
Zhu Kangjie
66% calibrated win probability for the current lean, but guarded by volatility or weak-regime caveats
Zhu Kangjie
66%
Ramon Taveras
34%
why the model leans this way

Zhu Kangjie projects ahead on current measurable form and matchup profile. Zhu Kangjie holds the clearer form edge Zhu Kangjie holds the clearer activity edge Zhu Kangjie has the stronger proven sample in this division Zhu Kangjie has the clearer incumbency edge in this division Zhu Kangjie has shown more recent division stability Division-transition caution: Ramon Taveras is only in a second fight in this division; Proxy-stat sample coverage is only moderate for this matchup. Empirical calibration applied from historical outcome bins.

  • Zhu Kangjie shows the clearer form edge
  • Zhu Kangjie shows the clearer activity edge
Risk flags
  • Both fighters carry high finish volatility
Uncertainty / caveats
  • High-volatility matchup: finish variance is elevated and certainty should be discounted.
  • Ramon Taveras is only in a second fight in this division
  • Proxy-stat sample coverage is only moderate for this matchup
  • Probability is shown through the calibrated presentation layer built from baseline-v4-clean.
Bantamweight
guarded
Cameron Smotherman
lean
vs
Kai Asakura
calibrated lean
Cameron Smotherman
59% calibrated win probability for the current lean, but guarded by volatility or weak-regime caveats
Cameron Smotherman
59%
Kai Asakura
41%
why the model leans this way

Cameron Smotherman projects ahead on current measurable form and matchup profile. Cameron Smotherman holds the clearer form edge Cameron Smotherman has the stronger proven sample in this division Cameron Smotherman has the clearer incumbency edge in this division Cameron Smotherman has shown more recent division stability Division-transition caution: Kai Asakura is making a division debut; Kai Asakura is moving up in weight. Empirical calibration applied from historical outcome bins.

  • Cameron Smotherman shows the clearer form edge
Risk flags
  • Kai Asakura division debut
  • Kai Asakura moving up in weight
Uncertainty / caveats
  • Known weak regime: stable-incumbent-versus-mover fights remain less trustworthy than the overall stack.
  • Kai Asakura is making a division debut
  • Kai Asakura is moving up in weight
  • One fighter is moving up against a stable incumbent
  • At least one fighter has thin recent sample coverage behind the proxy stats
Bantamweight
guarded
Aoriqileng
vs
Cody Haddon
lean
calibrated lean
Cody Haddon
66% calibrated win probability for the current lean, but guarded by volatility or weak-regime caveats
Aoriqileng
34%
Cody Haddon
66%
why the model leans this way

Cody Haddon projects ahead on current measurable form and matchup profile. Cody Haddon holds the clearer form edge Aoriqileng holds the clearer activity edge Cody Haddon holds the clearer grappling edge Aoriqileng has the stronger proven sample in this division Division-transition caution: At least one fighter has thin recent sample coverage behind the proxy stats; The matchup has uneven recent sample coverage between the fighters. Empirical calibration applied from historical outcome bins.

  • Cody Haddon shows the clearer form edge
  • Aoriqileng shows the clearer activity edge
  • Cody Haddon shows the clearer grappling edge
Risk flags
  • Cody Haddon long layoff
  • Both fighters carry high finish volatility
Uncertainty / caveats
  • High-volatility matchup: finish variance is elevated and certainty should be discounted.
  • At least one fighter has thin recent sample coverage behind the proxy stats
  • The matchup has uneven recent sample coverage between the fighters
  • Probability is shown through the calibrated presentation layer built from baseline-v4-clean.
Flyweight
guarded
Sumudaerji
lean
vs
Alex Perez
calibrated lean
Sumudaerji
62% calibrated win probability for the current lean, but guarded by volatility or weak-regime caveats
Sumudaerji
62%
Alex Perez
38%
why the model leans this way

Sumudaerji projects ahead on current measurable form and matchup profile. Sumudaerji holds the clearer form edge Alex Perez has the stronger proven sample in this division Empirical calibration applied from historical outcome bins.

  • Sumudaerji shows the clearer form edge
Risk flags
  • Both fighters carry high finish volatility
Uncertainty / caveats
  • High-volatility matchup: finish variance is elevated and certainty should be discounted.
  • Probability is shown through the calibrated presentation layer built from baseline-v4-clean.
Flyweight
guarded
Rei Tsuruya
vs
Jesus Aguilar
lean
calibrated lean
Jesus Aguilar
64% calibrated win probability for the current lean, but guarded by volatility or weak-regime caveats
Rei Tsuruya
36%
Jesus Aguilar
64%
why the model leans this way

Jesus Aguilar projects ahead on current measurable form and matchup profile. Jesus Aguilar holds the clearer activity edge Rei Tsuruya holds the clearer grappling edge Jesus Aguilar has the stronger proven sample in this division Empirical calibration applied from historical outcome bins.

  • Jesus Aguilar shows the clearer activity edge
  • Rei Tsuruya shows the clearer grappling edge
Risk flags
  • Rei Tsuruya long layoff
  • Both fighters carry high finish volatility
Uncertainty / caveats
  • High-volatility matchup: finish variance is elevated and certainty should be discounted.
  • Probability is shown through the calibrated presentation layer built from baseline-v4-clean.
Women's Strawweight
guarded
Xiong Jingnan
vs
Angela Hill
lean
calibrated lean
Angela Hill
66% calibrated win probability for the current lean, but guarded by volatility or weak-regime caveats
Xiong Jingnan
34%
Angela Hill
66%
why the model leans this way

Angela Hill projects ahead on current measurable form and matchup profile. Angela Hill holds the clearer grappling edge Angela Hill has the stronger proven sample in this division Angela Hill has the clearer incumbency edge in this division Division-transition caution: Xiong Jingnan is making a division debut; At least one fighter has thin recent sample coverage behind the proxy stats. Empirical calibration applied from historical outcome bins.

  • Angela Hill shows the clearer grappling edge
Risk flags
  • Xiong Jingnan low recent sample
  • Xiong Jingnan division debut
Uncertainty / caveats
  • Xiong Jingnan is making a division debut
  • At least one fighter has thin recent sample coverage behind the proxy stats
  • The matchup has uneven recent sample coverage between the fighters
  • Probability is shown through the calibrated presentation layer built from baseline-v4-clean.
Women's Strawweight
guarded
Loma Lookboonmee
lean
vs
Jaqueline Amorim
calibrated lean
Loma Lookboonmee
66% calibrated win probability for the current lean, but guarded by volatility or weak-regime caveats
Loma Lookboonmee
66%
Jaqueline Amorim
34%
why the model leans this way

Loma Lookboonmee projects ahead on current measurable form and matchup profile. Jaqueline Amorim holds the clearer grappling edge Loma Lookboonmee has the stronger proven sample in this division Empirical calibration applied from historical outcome bins.

  • Jaqueline Amorim shows the clearer grappling edge
Risk flags
  • Both fighters carry high finish volatility
Uncertainty / caveats
  • High-volatility matchup: finish variance is elevated and certainty should be discounted.
  • Probability is shown through the calibrated presentation layer built from baseline-v4-clean.