Back to predictions hub
Calibrated predictions slate

UFC Fight Night: Muhammad vs. Bonfim

Jun 6, 2026Las Vegas, Nevada, USA12 of 12 calibrated matchup cards liveFull slate live

This surface shows the governed calibrated stack honestly: probability splits, model reasons, and the caveats that matter when volatility or weak regimes are present.

premium stack
What this page is actually doing
  • Shows calibrated probabilities from the governed production alias rather than raw heuristic certainty.
  • Carries volatility and regime caveats forward instead of hiding them behind premium copy.
  • Keeps event rendering tied to real API outputs and real fighter identity data.
Welterweight
guarded
Gabriel Bonfim
vs
Belal Muhammad
lean
calibrated lean
Belal Muhammad
62% calibrated win probability for the current lean, but guarded by volatility or weak-regime caveats
Gabriel Bonfim
38%
Belal Muhammad
62%
why the model leans this way

Belal Muhammad projects ahead on current measurable form and matchup profile. Gabriel Bonfim holds the clearer form edge Belal Muhammad has the stronger proven sample in this division Empirical calibration applied from historical outcome bins.

  • Gabriel Bonfim shows the clearer form edge
Risk flags
  • Both fighters carry high finish volatility
Uncertainty / caveats
  • High-volatility matchup: finish variance is elevated and certainty should be discounted.
  • Probability is shown through the calibrated presentation layer built from baseline-v4-clean.
Light Heavyweight
guarded
Billy Elekana
lean
vs
Iwo Baraniewski
calibrated lean
Billy Elekana
51% calibrated win probability for the current lean, but guarded by volatility or weak-regime caveats
Billy Elekana
51%
Iwo Baraniewski
49%
why the model leans this way

Billy Elekana projects ahead on current measurable form and matchup profile. Iwo Baraniewski holds the clearer form edge Billy Elekana holds the clearer grappling edge Empirical calibration applied from historical outcome bins.

  • Iwo Baraniewski shows the clearer form edge
  • Billy Elekana shows the clearer grappling edge
Risk flags
  • Both fighters carry high finish volatility
Uncertainty / caveats
  • High-volatility matchup: finish variance is elevated and certainty should be discounted.
  • Probability is shown through the calibrated presentation layer built from baseline-v4-clean.
Middleweight
guarded
Brendan Allen
lean
vs
Edmen Shahbazyan
calibrated lean
Brendan Allen
66% calibrated win probability for the current lean, but guarded by volatility or weak-regime caveats
Brendan Allen
66%
Edmen Shahbazyan
34%
why the model leans this way

Brendan Allen projects ahead on current measurable form and matchup profile. Brendan Allen holds the clearer grappling edge Brendan Allen has the stronger proven sample in this division Empirical calibration applied from historical outcome bins.

  • Brendan Allen shows the clearer grappling edge
Risk flags
  • Both fighters carry high finish volatility
Uncertainty / caveats
  • High-volatility matchup: finish variance is elevated and certainty should be discounted.
  • Probability is shown through the calibrated presentation layer built from baseline-v4-clean.
Lightweight
guarded
Fares Ziam
lean
vs
Tom Nolan
calibrated lean
Fares Ziam
66% calibrated win probability for the current lean, but guarded by volatility or weak-regime caveats
Fares Ziam
66%
Tom Nolan
34%
why the model leans this way

Fares Ziam projects ahead on current measurable form and matchup profile. Fares Ziam holds the clearer form edge Fares Ziam has the stronger proven sample in this division Empirical calibration applied from historical outcome bins.

  • Fares Ziam shows the clearer form edge
Risk flags
  • Both fighters carry high finish volatility
Uncertainty / caveats
  • High-volatility matchup: finish variance is elevated and certainty should be discounted.
  • Probability is shown through the calibrated presentation layer built from baseline-v4-clean.
Featherweight
guarded
Joanderson Brito
lean
vs
Jordan Leavitt
calibrated lean
Joanderson Brito
66% calibrated win probability for the current lean, but guarded by volatility or weak-regime caveats
Joanderson Brito
66%
Jordan Leavitt
34%
why the model leans this way

Joanderson Brito projects ahead on current measurable form and matchup profile. Joanderson Brito holds the clearer grappling edge Joanderson Brito has the stronger proven sample in this division Joanderson Brito has the clearer incumbency edge in this division Joanderson Brito has shown more recent division stability Division-transition caution: Jordan Leavitt is only in a second fight in this division; At least one fighter has thin recent sample coverage behind the proxy stats. Empirical calibration applied from historical outcome bins.

  • Joanderson Brito shows the clearer grappling edge
Risk flags
  • Both fighters carry high finish volatility
Uncertainty / caveats
  • High-volatility matchup: finish variance is elevated and certainty should be discounted.
  • Jordan Leavitt is only in a second fight in this division
  • At least one fighter has thin recent sample coverage behind the proxy stats
  • The matchup has uneven recent sample coverage between the fighters
  • Probability is shown through the calibrated presentation layer built from baseline-v4-clean.
Bantamweight
guarded
Bryce Mitchell
vs
Victor Henry
lean
calibrated lean
Victor Henry
66% calibrated win probability for the current lean, but guarded by volatility or weak-regime caveats
Bryce Mitchell
34%
Victor Henry
66%
why the model leans this way

Victor Henry projects ahead on current measurable form and matchup profile. Bryce Mitchell holds the clearer grappling edge Victor Henry has the stronger proven sample in this division Victor Henry has the clearer incumbency edge in this division Victor Henry has shown more recent division stability Division-transition caution: Bryce Mitchell is only in a second fight in this division; Proxy-stat sample coverage is only moderate for this matchup. Empirical calibration applied from historical outcome bins.

  • Bryce Mitchell shows the clearer grappling edge
Risk flags
  • Victor Henry long layoff
  • Both fighters carry high finish volatility
Uncertainty / caveats
  • High-volatility matchup: finish variance is elevated and certainty should be discounted.
  • Bryce Mitchell is only in a second fight in this division
  • Proxy-stat sample coverage is only moderate for this matchup
  • Probability is shown through the calibrated presentation layer built from baseline-v4-clean.
Bantamweight
guarded
Jakub Wiklacz
vs
Marcus McGhee
lean
calibrated lean
Marcus McGhee
62% calibrated win probability for the current lean, but guarded by volatility or weak-regime caveats
Jakub Wiklacz
38%
Marcus McGhee
62%
why the model leans this way

Marcus McGhee projects ahead on current measurable form and matchup profile. Jakub Wiklacz holds the clearer form edge Jakub Wiklacz holds the clearer activity edge Jakub Wiklacz holds the clearer grappling edge Marcus McGhee has the stronger proven sample in this division Division-transition caution: At least one fighter has thin recent sample coverage behind the proxy stats. Empirical calibration applied from historical outcome bins.

  • Jakub Wiklacz shows the clearer form edge
  • Jakub Wiklacz shows the clearer activity edge
  • Jakub Wiklacz shows the clearer grappling edge
Risk flags
  • Both fighters carry high finish volatility
Uncertainty / caveats
  • High-volatility matchup: finish variance is elevated and certainty should be discounted.
  • At least one fighter has thin recent sample coverage behind the proxy stats
  • Probability is shown through the calibrated presentation layer built from baseline-v4-clean.
Flyweight
guarded
Matt Schnell
vs
Imanol Rodriguez
lean
calibrated lean
Imanol Rodriguez
66% calibrated win probability for the current lean, but guarded by volatility or weak-regime caveats
Matt Schnell
34%
Imanol Rodriguez
66%
why the model leans this way

Imanol Rodriguez projects ahead on current measurable form and matchup profile. Imanol Rodriguez holds the clearer form edge Matt Schnell has the stronger proven sample in this division Division-transition caution: At least one fighter has thin recent sample coverage behind the proxy stats. Empirical calibration applied from historical outcome bins.

  • Imanol Rodriguez shows the clearer form edge
Risk flags
  • Both fighters carry high finish volatility
Uncertainty / caveats
  • High-volatility matchup: finish variance is elevated and certainty should be discounted.
  • At least one fighter has thin recent sample coverage behind the proxy stats
  • Probability is shown through the calibrated presentation layer built from baseline-v4-clean.
Flyweight
guarded
Bruno Silva
lean
vs
Edgar Chairez
calibrated lean
Bruno Silva
62% calibrated win probability for the current lean, but guarded by volatility or weak-regime caveats
Bruno Silva
62%
Edgar Chairez
38%
why the model leans this way

Bruno Silva projects ahead on current measurable form and matchup profile. Bruno Silva holds the clearer grappling edge Bruno Silva has the stronger proven sample in this division Empirical calibration applied from historical outcome bins.

  • Bruno Silva shows the clearer grappling edge
Risk flags
  • Both fighters carry high finish volatility
Uncertainty / caveats
  • High-volatility matchup: finish variance is elevated and certainty should be discounted.
  • Probability is shown through the calibrated presentation layer built from baseline-v4-clean.
Women's Bantamweight
guarded
Chelsea Chandler
vs
Priscila Cachoeira
lean
calibrated lean
Priscila Cachoeira
62% calibrated win probability for the current lean, but guarded by volatility or weak-regime caveats
Chelsea Chandler
38%
Priscila Cachoeira
62%
why the model leans this way

Priscila Cachoeira projects ahead on current measurable form and matchup profile. Priscila Cachoeira holds the clearer activity edge Priscila Cachoeira has the stronger proven sample in this division Empirical calibration applied from historical outcome bins.

  • Priscila Cachoeira shows the clearer activity edge
Risk flags
  • Chelsea Chandler long layoff
  • Both fighters carry high finish volatility
Uncertainty / caveats
  • High-volatility matchup: finish variance is elevated and certainty should be discounted.
  • Probability is shown through the calibrated presentation layer built from baseline-v4-clean.
Women's Flyweight
guarded
Jeisla Chaves
lean
vs
Yuneisy Duben
calibrated lean
Jeisla Chaves
66% calibrated win probability for the current lean, but guarded by volatility or weak-regime caveats
Jeisla Chaves
66%
Yuneisy Duben
34%
why the model leans this way

Jeisla Chaves projects ahead on current measurable form and matchup profile. Jeisla Chaves holds the clearer form edge Jeisla Chaves holds the clearer activity edge Division-transition caution: Jeisla Chaves is only in a second fight in this division; At least one fighter has thin recent sample coverage behind the proxy stats. Empirical calibration applied from historical outcome bins.

  • Jeisla Chaves shows the clearer form edge
  • Jeisla Chaves shows the clearer activity edge
Risk flags
  • Yuneisy Duben long layoff
  • Jeisla Chaves low recent sample
  • Both fighters carry high finish volatility
Uncertainty / caveats
  • High-volatility matchup: finish variance is elevated and certainty should be discounted.
  • Jeisla Chaves is only in a second fight in this division
  • At least one fighter has thin recent sample coverage behind the proxy stats
  • Probability is shown through the calibrated presentation layer built from baseline-v4-clean.
Women's Strawweight
guarded
Ketlen Souza
lean
vs
Ariane Carnelossi
calibrated lean
Ketlen Souza
66% calibrated win probability for the current lean, but guarded by volatility or weak-regime caveats
Ketlen Souza
66%
Ariane Carnelossi
34%
why the model leans this way

Ketlen Souza projects ahead on current measurable form and matchup profile. The matchup looks relatively balanced on current measurable form. Division-transition caution: Proxy-stat sample coverage is only moderate for this matchup; The matchup has uneven recent sample coverage between the fighters. Empirical calibration applied from historical outcome bins.

Risk flags
  • Both fighters carry high finish volatility
Uncertainty / caveats
  • High-volatility matchup: finish variance is elevated and certainty should be discounted.
  • Proxy-stat sample coverage is only moderate for this matchup
  • The matchup has uneven recent sample coverage between the fighters
  • Probability is shown through the calibrated presentation layer built from baseline-v4-clean.