Event· May 9, 2026

UFC 328: Chimaev vs. Strickland

The fight card and the model read for every bout, together. Each read shows the probability split, the reasons behind the lean, and the caveats that matter. The model is early-stage and no live track record has been published yet.

Newark, New Jersey, USACompleted eventFull slate live14 of 14 bouts with a model readPublished Mar 26, 2026 · 43d before the card

Receipt

Read first published: Mar 26, 2026
Lead time: 43 days before the card
Read last refreshed: May 6, 2026
Card last checked: Aug 27, 2026, 2:15 AM UTC
Card vs read: In sync

Shown unedited since first publication. The date above is the first publication, not the refresh.

Bouts

Model reads

Full slate live

Toss-ups

Within half a point of 50/50

Completed

Official results recorded

Scored receipt

Model 7 of 13

Every bout with a published read, scored against the official result. One card is a small sample; the running record is what counts.

Bout	Model	Winner
Sean Strickland vs Khamzat Chimaev	Sean Strickland66%Right	Sean Strickland
Joshua Van vs Tatsuro Taira	Joshua Van66%Right	Joshua Van
Alexander Volkov vs Waldo Cortes Acosta	Waldo Cortes Acosta51%Wrong	Alexander Volkov
Sean Brady vs Joaquin Buckley	Sean Brady55%Right	Sean Brady
Jeremy Stephens vs King Green	King Green66%Right	King Green
Ateba Gautier vs Ozzy Diaz	Ateba Gautier66%Right	Ateba Gautier
Joel Alvarez vs Yaroslav Amosov	Joel Alvarez66%Wrong	Yaroslav Amosov
Mateusz Rebecki vs Grant Dawson	Grant Dawson51%Right	Grant Dawson
Jared Gordon vs Jim Miller	Jim Miller51%Right	Jim Miller
Marco Tulio vs Roman Kopylov	Marco Tulio66%Wrong	Roman Kopylov
Pat Sabatini vs William Gomis	William Gomis66%Wrong	Pat Sabatini
Djorden Santos vs Baisangur Susurkaev	Djorden Santos66%Wrong	Baisangur Susurkaev
Jose Ochoa vs Clayton Carpenter	Clayton Carpenter51%Wrong	Jose Ochoa

01Middleweight TitleTitle fight

guarded

Fighter A

Sean Strickland

Winner

lean

Div #5P4P #2636M 3-2-0

Win vs Khamzat Chimaev • S-DEC • May 9, 2026

2-fight win streak

Fighter B

Khamzat Chimaev

Div #3P4P #1536M 3-1-0

Loss vs Sean Strickland • S-DEC • May 9, 2026

66%

model lean

Sean Strickland

34%

model leanSean Strickland

66% model win probability for the current lean, but guarded by volatility or weak-regime caveats

Official result: Sean Strickland

S-DEC • R5 • 5:00

why the model leans this way

Sean Strickland projects ahead on current measurable form and matchup profile. Sean Strickland holds the clearer activity edge. Sean Strickland has the stronger proven sample in this division.

Sean Strickland shows the clearer activity edge

Risk flags

Both fighters carry high finish volatility

Uncertainty / caveats

High-volatility matchup: finish variance is elevated and certainty should be discounted.
Probability is adjusted against historical outcome bins; no live track record has been published yet.

02Flyweight TitleTitle fight

guarded

Fighter A

Joshua Van

Winner

lean

Div #1P4P #1736M 10-1-0

Win vs Alexandre Pantoja • Decision - Unanimous • Sep 19, 2026

8-fight win streak

Fighter B

Tatsuro Taira

Div #4P4P #8436M 4-2-0

Loss vs Joshua Van • KO/TKO • May 9, 2026

66%

model lean

Joshua Van

34%

model leanJoshua Van

66% model win probability for the current lean, but guarded by volatility or weak-regime caveats

Official result: Joshua Van

KO/TKO • R5 • 1:32

why the model leans this way

Joshua Van projects ahead on current measurable form and matchup profile. Joshua Van has the stronger proven sample in this division.

Risk flags

Both fighters carry high finish volatility

Uncertainty / caveats

High-volatility matchup: finish variance is elevated and certainty should be discounted.
Probability is adjusted against historical outcome bins; no live track record has been published yet.

03Heavyweight

guarded

Fighter A

Alexander Volkov

Winner

Div #3P4P #2836M 3-1-0

Win vs Waldo Cortes Acosta • U-DEC • May 9, 2026

2-fight win streak

Fighter B

Waldo Cortes Acosta

lean

Div #5P4P #3836M 7-3-0

Loss vs Curtis Blaydes • Decision - Unanimous • Sep 12, 2026

2-fight losing streak

49%

model lean

Waldo Cortes Acosta

51%

model leanWaldo Cortes Acosta

51% model win probability for the current lean, but guarded by volatility or weak-regime caveats

Official result: Alexander Volkov

U-DEC • R3 • 5:00

why the model leans this way

Waldo Cortes Acosta projects ahead on current measurable form and matchup profile.

Risk flags

Both fighters carry high finish volatility

Uncertainty / caveats

High-volatility matchup: finish variance is elevated and certainty should be discounted.
Probability is adjusted against historical outcome bins; no live track record has been published yet.

04Welterweight

guarded

Fighter A

Sean Brady

Winner

lean

Div #5P4P #2236M 4-1-0

Win vs Joaquin Buckley • U-DEC • May 9, 2026

Fighter B

Joaquin Buckley

Div #11P4P #6536M 4-3-0

Loss vs Mike Malott • KO/TKO • Oct 17, 2026

3-fight losing streak

55%

model lean

Sean Brady

45%

model leanSean Brady

55% model win probability for the current lean, but guarded by volatility or weak-regime caveats

Official result: Sean Brady

U-DEC • R3 • 5:00

why the model leans this way

Sean Brady projects ahead on current measurable form and matchup profile. Sean Brady holds the clearer activity edge. Sean Brady holds the clearer grappling edge. Sean Brady has the stronger proven sample in this division.

Sean Brady shows the clearer activity edge
Sean Brady shows the clearer grappling edge

Risk flags

Both fighters carry high finish volatility

Uncertainty / caveats

High-volatility matchup: finish variance is elevated and certainty should be discounted.
Probability is adjusted against historical outcome bins; no live track record has been published yet.

05Lightweight

guarded

Fighter A

Jeremy Stephens

Div #91P4P #64136M 0-2-0

Loss vs King Green • SUB • May 9, 2026

7-fight losing streak

Fighter B

King Green

Winner

lean

Div #15P4P #11736M 5-4-0

Loss vs Esteban Ribovics • KO/TKO • Oct 3, 2026

34%

model lean

King Green

66%

model leanKing Green

66% model win probability for the current lean, but guarded by volatility or weak-regime caveats

Official result: King Green

SUB • R1 • 4:20

why the model leans this way

King Green projects ahead on current measurable form and matchup profile. King Green holds the clearer form edge. King Green holds the clearer activity edge. King Green has the stronger proven sample in this division. Division-transition caution: At least one fighter has thin recent sample coverage behind the proxy stats; The matchup has uneven recent sample coverage between the fighters.

King Green shows the clearer form edge
King Green shows the clearer activity edge

Risk flags

Jeremy Stephens long layoff
Jeremy Stephens low recent sample

Uncertainty / caveats

At least one fighter has thin recent sample coverage behind the proxy stats
The matchup has uneven recent sample coverage between the fighters
Probability is adjusted against historical outcome bins; no live track record has been published yet.

06Middleweight

guarded

Fighter A

Ateba Gautier

Winner

lean

Div #31P4P #22636M 6-1-0

Loss vs Roman Kopylov • KO/TKO • Oct 3, 2026

Fighter B

Ozzy Diaz

Div #74P4P #64936M 1-3-0

Loss vs Ryan Gandra • KO/TKO • Sep 19, 2026

2-fight losing streak

66%

model lean

Ateba Gautier

34%

model leanAteba Gautier

66% model win probability for the current lean, but guarded by volatility or weak-regime caveats

Official result: Ateba Gautier

KO/TKO • R2 • 1:10

why the model leans this way

Ateba Gautier projects ahead on current measurable form and matchup profile. Ateba Gautier holds the clearer form edge. Ateba Gautier holds the clearer activity edge. Ateba Gautier has the stronger proven sample in this division. Ateba Gautier has shown more recent division stability. Division-transition caution: At least one fighter has thin recent sample coverage behind the proxy stats; The matchup has uneven recent sample coverage between the fighters.

Ateba Gautier shows the clearer form edge
Ateba Gautier shows the clearer activity edge

Risk flags

Ozzy Diaz long layoff
Both fighters carry high finish volatility

Uncertainty / caveats

High-volatility matchup: finish variance is elevated and certainty should be discounted.
At least one fighter has thin recent sample coverage behind the proxy stats
The matchup has uneven recent sample coverage between the fighters
Probability is adjusted against historical outcome bins; no live track record has been published yet.

07Welterweight

guarded

Fighter A

Joel Alvarez

lean

Div #25P4P #14836M 3-2-0

Loss vs Chidi Njokuani • Decision - Unanimous • Aug 15, 2026

2-fight losing streak

Fighter B

Yaroslav Amosov

Winner

Div #10P4P #6436M 2-0-0

Win vs Joel Alvarez • SUB • May 9, 2026

2-fight win streak

66%

model lean

Joel Alvarez

34%

model leanJoel Alvarez

66% model win probability for the current lean, but guarded by volatility or weak-regime caveats

Official result: Yaroslav Amosov

SUB • R2 • 1:13

why the model leans this way

Joel Alvarez projects ahead on current measurable form and matchup profile. Division-transition caution: Joel Alvarez is only in a second fight in this division; Yaroslav Amosov is only in a second fight in this division.

Risk flags

Yaroslav Amosov low recent sample
Both fighters carry high finish volatility

Uncertainty / caveats

High-volatility matchup: finish variance is elevated and certainty should be discounted.
Joel Alvarez is only in a second fight in this division
Yaroslav Amosov is only in a second fight in this division
At least one fighter has thin recent sample coverage behind the proxy stats
Probability is adjusted against historical outcome bins; no live track record has been published yet.

08Lightweight

guarded

Fighter A

Mateusz Rebecki

Div #39P4P #26636M 3-4-0

Win vs Kyle Prepolec • KO/TKO • Aug 1, 2026

Fighter B

Grant Dawson

Winner

lean

Div #9P4P #7236M 4-1-0

Win vs Mateusz Rebecki • SUB • May 9, 2026

49%

model lean

Grant Dawson

51%

model leanGrant Dawson

51% model win probability for the current lean, but guarded by volatility or weak-regime caveats

Official result: Grant Dawson

SUB • R3 • 4:42

why the model leans this way

Grant Dawson projects ahead on current measurable form and matchup profile. Grant Dawson holds the clearer form edge. Grant Dawson has the stronger proven sample in this division.

Grant Dawson shows the clearer form edge

Risk flags

Both fighters carry high finish volatility

Uncertainty / caveats

High-volatility matchup: finish variance is elevated and certainty should be discounted.
Probability is adjusted against historical outcome bins; no live track record has been published yet.

09Lightweight

guarded

Fighter A

Jared Gordon

Div #44P4P #29136M 2-3-0

Loss vs Jim Miller • SUB • May 9, 2026

2-fight losing streak

Fighter B

Jim Miller

Winner

lean

Div #33P4P #20036M 3-2-0

Win vs Jared Gordon • SUB • May 9, 2026

49%

model lean

Jim Miller

51%

model leanJim Miller

51% model win probability for the current lean, but guarded by volatility or weak-regime caveats

Official result: Jim Miller

SUB • R1 • 3:29

why the model leans this way

Jim Miller projects ahead on current measurable form and matchup profile. Jim Miller holds the clearer grappling edge. Jim Miller has the stronger proven sample in this division.

Jim Miller shows the clearer grappling edge

Risk flags

Jim Miller long layoff
Both fighters carry high finish volatility

Uncertainty / caveats

High-volatility matchup: finish variance is elevated and certainty should be discounted.
Probability is adjusted against historical outcome bins; no live track record has been published yet.

10Middleweight

guarded

Fighter A

Marco Tulio

lean

Div #45P4P #36736M 3-2-0

Loss vs Roman Kopylov • U-DEC • May 9, 2026

2-fight losing streak

Fighter B

Roman Kopylov

Winner

Div #18P4P #13236M 4-3-0

Win vs Ateba Gautier • KO/TKO • Oct 3, 2026

2-fight win streak

66%

model lean

Marco Tulio

34%

model leanMarco Tulio

66% model win probability for the current lean, but guarded by volatility or weak-regime caveats

Official result: Roman Kopylov

U-DEC • R3 • 5:00

why the model leans this way

Marco Tulio projects ahead on current measurable form and matchup profile. Marco Tulio holds the clearer form edge.

Marco Tulio shows the clearer form edge

Risk flags

Both fighters carry high finish volatility

Uncertainty / caveats

High-volatility matchup: finish variance is elevated and certainty should be discounted.
Probability is adjusted against historical outcome bins; no live track record has been published yet.

11Featherweight

guarded

Fighter A

Pat Sabatini

Winner

Div #7P4P #6836M 4-1-0

Win vs William Gomis • U-DEC • May 9, 2026

4-fight win streak

Fighter B

William Gomis

lean

Div #30P4P #25536M 2-2-0

Loss vs Pat Sabatini • U-DEC • May 9, 2026

34%

model lean

William Gomis

66%

model leanWilliam Gomis

66% model win probability for the current lean, but guarded by volatility or weak-regime caveats

Official result: Pat Sabatini

U-DEC • R3 • 5:00

why the model leans this way

William Gomis projects ahead on current measurable form and matchup profile.

Risk flags

Both fighters carry high finish volatility

Uncertainty / caveats

High-volatility matchup: finish variance is elevated and certainty should be discounted.
Probability is adjusted against historical outcome bins; no live track record has been published yet.

12Middleweight

guarded

Fighter A

Djorden Santos

lean

Div #64P4P #55136M 2-3-0

Loss vs Yousri Belgaroui • KO/TKO • Sep 12, 2026

2-fight losing streak

Fighter B

Baisangur Susurkaev

Winner

Div #35P4P #24236M 4-0-0

Win vs Djorden Santos • SUB • May 9, 2026

4-fight win streak

66%

model lean

Djorden Santos

34%

model leanDjorden Santos

66% model win probability for the current lean, but guarded by volatility or weak-regime caveats

Official result: Baisangur Susurkaev

SUB • R3 • 4:12

why the model leans this way

Djorden Santos projects ahead on current measurable form and matchup profile.

Risk flags

Both fighters carry high finish volatility

Uncertainty / caveats

High-volatility matchup: finish variance is elevated and certainty should be discounted.
Probability is adjusted against historical outcome bins; no live track record has been published yet.

13Flyweight

guarded

Fighter A

Jose Ochoa

Winner

Div #32P4P #43836M 2-2-0

Win vs Clayton Carpenter • U-DEC • May 9, 2026

Fighter B

Clayton Carpenter

lean

Div #43P4P #55736M 1-3-0

Loss vs Jose Ochoa • U-DEC • May 9, 2026

3-fight losing streak

49%

model lean

Clayton Carpenter

51%

model leanClayton Carpenter

51% model win probability for the current lean, but guarded by volatility or weak-regime caveats

Official result: Jose Ochoa

U-DEC • R3 • 5:00

why the model leans this way

Clayton Carpenter projects ahead on current measurable form and matchup profile. Clayton Carpenter has the stronger proven sample in this division.

Risk flags

Both fighters carry high finish volatility

Uncertainty / caveats

High-volatility matchup: finish variance is elevated and certainty should be discounted.
Probability is adjusted against historical outcome bins; no live track record has been published yet.

14Light Heavyweight

low

Fighter A

Jan Blachowicz

lean

Div #18P4P #27036M 0-2-1

Loss vs Navajo Stirling • KO/TKO • Aug 1, 2026

3-fight losing streak

Fighter B

Bogdan Guskov

Div #13P4P #14136M 4-1-1

Loss vs Magomed Ankalaev • KO/TKO • Jul 25, 2026

66%

model lean

Jan Blachowicz

34%

model leanJan Blachowicz

66% model win probability for the current lean

why the model leans this way

Jan Blachowicz projects ahead on current measurable form and matchup profile. Jan Blachowicz holds the clearer grappling edge. Jan Blachowicz has the stronger proven sample in this division.

Jan Blachowicz shows the clearer grappling edge

Uncertainty / caveats

Probability is adjusted against historical outcome bins; no live track record has been published yet.