Event· May 16, 2026

UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Costa

The fight card and the model read for every bout, together. Each read shows the probability split, the reasons behind the lean, and the caveats that matter. The model is early-stage and no live track record has been published yet.

Las Vegas, Nevada, USACompleted eventFull slate live16 of 16 bouts with a model readPublished Mar 26, 2026 · 50d before the card

Receipt

Read first published: Mar 26, 2026
Lead time: 50 days before the card
Read last refreshed: May 15, 2026
Card last checked: Aug 27, 2026, 2:15 AM UTC
Card vs read: In sync

Shown unedited since first publication. The date above is the first publication, not the refresh.

Bouts

Model reads

Full slate live

Toss-ups

Within half a point of 50/50

Completed

Official results recorded

Scored receipt

Model 8 of 13

Every bout with a published read, scored against the official result. One card is a small sample; the running record is what counts.

Bout	Model	Winner
Arnold Allen vs Melquizael Costa	Melquizael Costa65%Wrong	Arnold Allen
Daniel Santos vs Dooho Choi	Dooho Choi64%Right	Dooho Choi
Malcolm Wellmaker vs Juan Diaz	Juan Diaz66%Right	Juan Diaz
Modestas Bukauskas vs Christian Edwards	Modestas Bukauskas55%Right	Modestas Bukauskas
Timmy Cuamba vs Benardo Sopaj	Benardo Sopaj66%Right	Benardo Sopaj
Nikolay Veretennikov vs Khaos Williams	Khaos Williams62%Right	Khaos Williams
Tuco Tokkos vs Ivan Erslan	Tuco Tokkos64%Wrong	Ivan Erslan
Artur Minev vs Tommy Gantt	Tommy Gantt65%Right	Tommy Gantt
Ketlen Vieira vs Jacqueline Cavalcanti	Jacqueline Cavalcanti66%Wrong	Ketlen Vieira
Andre Petroski vs Cody Brundage	Andre Petroski66%Wrong	Cody Brundage
Alice Ardelean vs Polyana Viana	Alice Ardelean66%Right	Alice Ardelean
Luis Gurule vs Daniel Barez	Luis Gurule62%Right	Luis Gurule
Shauna Bannon vs Nicolle Caliari	Shauna Bannon59%Wrong	Nicolle Caliari

01Featherweight

guarded

Fighter A

Arnold Allen

Winner

Div #10P4P #8536M 2-2-0

Win vs Melquizael Costa • U-DEC • May 16, 2026

Fighter B

Melquizael Costa

lean

Div #9P4P #8036M 6-2-0

Loss vs Arnold Allen • U-DEC • May 16, 2026

35%

model lean

Melquizael Costa

65%

model leanMelquizael Costa

65% model win probability for the current lean, but guarded by volatility or weak-regime caveats

Official result: Arnold Allen

U-DEC • R5 • 5:00

why the model leans this way

Melquizael Costa projects ahead on current measurable form and matchup profile. Melquizael Costa holds the clearer form edge. Melquizael Costa holds the clearer grappling edge.

Melquizael Costa shows the clearer form edge
Melquizael Costa shows the clearer grappling edge

Risk flags

Both fighters carry high finish volatility

Uncertainty / caveats

High-volatility matchup: finish variance is elevated and certainty should be discounted.
Probability is adjusted against historical outcome bins; no live track record has been published yet.

02Featherweight

guarded

Fighter A

Daniel Santos

Div #36P4P #28436M 2-1-0

Loss vs Dooho Choi • KO/TKO • May 16, 2026

Fighter B

Dooho Choi

Winner

lean

Div #27P4P #23636M 3-1-0

Loss vs Patricio Pitbull • KO/TKO • Sep 19, 2026

36%

model lean

Dooho Choi

64%

model leanDooho Choi

64% model win probability for the current lean, but guarded by volatility or weak-regime caveats

Official result: Dooho Choi

KO/TKO • R2 • 4:29

why the model leans this way

Dooho Choi projects ahead on current measurable form and matchup profile. Dooho Choi has the stronger proven sample in this division. Dooho Choi has the clearer incumbency edge in this division. Dooho Choi has shown more recent division stability. Division-transition caution: Daniel Santos is only in a second fight in this division; At least one fighter has thin recent sample coverage behind the proxy stats.

Risk flags

Dooho Choi long layoff
Both fighters carry high finish volatility

Uncertainty / caveats

High-volatility matchup: finish variance is elevated and certainty should be discounted.
Daniel Santos is only in a second fight in this division
At least one fighter has thin recent sample coverage behind the proxy stats
Probability is adjusted against historical outcome bins; no live track record has been published yet.

03Bantamweight

guarded

Fighter A

Malcolm Wellmaker

Div #67P4P #56736M 3-3-0

Loss vs Otari Tanzilovi • KO/TKO • Oct 10, 2026

3-fight losing streak

Fighter B

Juan Diaz

Winner

lean

Div #39P4P #33636M 2-0-0

Win vs Malcolm Wellmaker • SUB • May 16, 2026

2-fight win streak

34%

model lean

Juan Diaz

66%

model leanJuan Diaz

66% model win probability for the current lean, but guarded by volatility or weak-regime caveats

Official result: Juan Diaz

SUB • R2 • 4:08

why the model leans this way

Juan Diaz projects ahead on current measurable form and matchup profile. Juan Diaz holds the clearer form edge. Juan Diaz holds the clearer grappling edge. Division-transition caution: Malcolm Wellmaker is moving down in weight; Juan Diaz is only in a second fight in this division.

Juan Diaz shows the clearer form edge
Juan Diaz shows the clearer grappling edge

Risk flags

Juan Diaz low recent sample
Both fighters carry high finish volatility
Malcolm Wellmaker moving down in weight

Uncertainty / caveats

High-volatility matchup: finish variance is elevated and certainty should be discounted.
Malcolm Wellmaker is moving down in weight
Juan Diaz is only in a second fight in this division
At least one fighter has thin recent sample coverage behind the proxy stats
The matchup has uneven recent sample coverage between the fighters

04Light Heavyweight

guarded

Fighter A

Modestas Bukauskas

Div #15P4P #14536M 6-2-0

Win vs Oumar Sy • KO/TKO • Sep 5, 2026

2-fight win streak

Fighter B

Rodolfo Bellato

lean

Div #35P4P #46936M 2-2-1

Loss vs Christian Edwards • KO/TKO • Sep 26, 2026

35%

model lean

Rodolfo Bellato

65%

model leanRodolfo Bellato

65% model win probability for the current lean, but guarded by volatility or weak-regime caveats

why the model leans this way

Rodolfo Bellato projects ahead on current measurable form and matchup profile. Rodolfo Bellato holds the clearer grappling edge.

Rodolfo Bellato shows the clearer grappling edge

Risk flags

Both fighters carry high finish volatility

Uncertainty / caveats

High-volatility matchup: finish variance is elevated and certainty should be discounted.
Probability is adjusted against historical outcome bins; no live track record has been published yet.

05Catch Weight

guarded

Fighter A

Modestas Bukauskas

Winner

lean

Div #15P4P #14536M 6-2-0

Win vs Oumar Sy • KO/TKO • Sep 5, 2026

2-fight win streak

Fighter B

Christian Edwards

Div #38P4P #52136M 1-1-0

Win vs Rodolfo Bellato • KO/TKO • Sep 26, 2026

55%

model lean

Modestas Bukauskas

45%

model leanModestas Bukauskas

55% model win probability for the current lean, but guarded by volatility or weak-regime caveats

Official result: Modestas Bukauskas

S-DEC • R3 • 5:00

why the model leans this way

Modestas Bukauskas projects ahead on current measurable form and matchup profile. The matchup looks relatively balanced on current measurable form. Division-transition caution: Modestas Bukauskas is making a division debut; Christian Edwards is making a division debut.

Risk flags

Christian Edwards low recent sample
Modestas Bukauskas division debut
Christian Edwards division debut

Uncertainty / caveats

Modestas Bukauskas is making a division debut
Christian Edwards is making a division debut
At least one fighter has thin recent sample coverage behind the proxy stats
The matchup has uneven recent sample coverage between the fighters
Probability is adjusted against historical outcome bins; no live track record has been published yet.

06Bantamweight

guarded

Fighter A

Timmy Cuamba

Div #45P4P #39636M 3-3-0

Win vs Louis Jourdain • SUB • Oct 17, 2026

Fighter B

Benardo Sopaj

Winner

lean

Div #52P4P #45436M 2-1-0

Win vs Timmy Cuamba • SUB • May 16, 2026

2-fight win streak

34%

model lean

Benardo Sopaj

66%

model leanBenardo Sopaj

66% model win probability for the current lean, but guarded by volatility or weak-regime caveats

Official result: Benardo Sopaj

SUB • R2 • 2:25

why the model leans this way

Benardo Sopaj projects ahead on current measurable form and matchup profile. Benardo Sopaj holds the clearer grappling edge. Benardo Sopaj has the clearer incumbency edge in this division. Benardo Sopaj has shown more recent division stability. Division-transition caution: Timmy Cuamba is only in a second fight in this division; At least one fighter has thin recent sample coverage behind the proxy stats.

Benardo Sopaj shows the clearer grappling edge

Risk flags

Benardo Sopaj long layoff
Both fighters carry high finish volatility

Uncertainty / caveats

High-volatility matchup: finish variance is elevated and certainty should be discounted.
Timmy Cuamba is only in a second fight in this division
At least one fighter has thin recent sample coverage behind the proxy stats
Probability is adjusted against historical outcome bins; no live track record has been published yet.

07Welterweight

guarded

Fighter A

Nikolay Veretennikov

Div #63P4P #50736M 2-4-0

Loss vs Khaos Williams • KO/TKO • May 16, 2026

Fighter B

Khaos Williams

Winner

lean

Div #50P4P #34336M 2-3-0

Loss vs Roberto Soldic • U-DEC • Oct 3, 2026

38%

model lean

Khaos Williams

62%

model leanKhaos Williams

62% model win probability for the current lean, but guarded by volatility or weak-regime caveats

Official result: Khaos Williams

KO/TKO • R1 • 3:31

why the model leans this way

Khaos Williams projects ahead on current measurable form and matchup profile. Khaos Williams has the stronger proven sample in this division.

Risk flags

Both fighters carry high finish volatility

Uncertainty / caveats

High-volatility matchup: finish variance is elevated and certainty should be discounted.
Probability is adjusted against historical outcome bins; no live track record has been published yet.

08Light Heavyweight

low

Fighter A

Tuco Tokkos

lean

Div #53P4P #68736M 1-3-0

Loss vs Ivan Erslan • U-DEC • May 16, 2026

Fighter B

Ivan Erslan

Winner

Div #50P4P #65536M 1-3-0

Win vs Tuco Tokkos • U-DEC • May 16, 2026

64%

model lean

Tuco Tokkos

36%

model leanTuco Tokkos

64% model win probability for the current lean

Official result: Ivan Erslan

U-DEC • R3 • 5:00

why the model leans this way

Tuco Tokkos projects ahead on current measurable form and matchup profile. Tuco Tokkos holds the clearer form edge. Tuco Tokkos holds the clearer grappling edge.

Tuco Tokkos shows the clearer form edge
Tuco Tokkos shows the clearer grappling edge

Uncertainty / caveats

Probability is adjusted against historical outcome bins; no live track record has been published yet.

09Welterweight

guarded

Fighter A

Nicolas Dalby

lean

Div #31P4P #20736M 2-2-0

Win vs Saygid Izagakhmaev • S-DEC • Nov 22, 2025

Fighter B

Jeremiah Wells

Div #26P4P #15036M 2-1-0

Win vs Myktybek Orolbai • Submission • Aug 15, 2026

2-fight win streak

66%

model lean

Nicolas Dalby

34%

model leanNicolas Dalby

66% model win probability for the current lean, but guarded by volatility or weak-regime caveats

why the model leans this way

Nicolas Dalby projects ahead on current measurable form and matchup profile. Nicolas Dalby holds the clearer form edge. Nicolas Dalby has the stronger proven sample in this division. Division-transition caution: Proxy-stat sample coverage is only moderate for this matchup.

Nicolas Dalby shows the clearer form edge

Risk flags

Both fighters carry high finish volatility

Uncertainty / caveats

High-volatility matchup: finish variance is elevated and certainty should be discounted.
Proxy-stat sample coverage is only moderate for this matchup
Probability is adjusted against historical outcome bins; no live track record has been published yet.

10Lightweight

guarded

Fighter A

Trey Ogden

lean

36M 2-1-0

Loss vs Thiago Moises • U-DEC • Jan 11, 2025

Fighter B

Tommy Gantt

Div #31P4P #18836M 3-0-0

Win vs Drakkar Klose • Submission • Sep 12, 2026

3-fight win streak

65%

model lean

Trey Ogden

35%

model leanTrey Ogden

65% model win probability for the current lean, but guarded by volatility or weak-regime caveats

why the model leans this way

Trey Ogden projects ahead on current measurable form and matchup profile. Trey Ogden has the stronger proven sample in this division. Trey Ogden has the clearer incumbency edge in this division. Division-transition caution: Tommy Gantt is only in a second fight in this division; At least one fighter has thin recent sample coverage behind the proxy stats.

Risk flags

Trey Ogden long layoff
Tommy Gantt low recent sample
Both fighters carry high finish volatility

Uncertainty / caveats

High-volatility matchup: finish variance is elevated and certainty should be discounted.
Tommy Gantt is only in a second fight in this division
At least one fighter has thin recent sample coverage behind the proxy stats
The matchup has uneven recent sample coverage between the fighters
Probability is adjusted against historical outcome bins; no live track record has been published yet.

11Lightweight

guarded

Fighter A

Artur Minev

Div #106P4P #73636M 0-1-0

Loss vs Tommy Gantt • KO/TKO • May 16, 2026

Fighter B

Tommy Gantt

Winner

lean

Div #31P4P #18836M 3-0-0

Win vs Drakkar Klose • Submission • Sep 12, 2026

3-fight win streak

35%

model lean

Tommy Gantt

65%

model leanTommy Gantt

65% model win probability for the current lean, but guarded by volatility or weak-regime caveats

Official result: Tommy Gantt

KO/TKO • R2 • 2:51

why the model leans this way

Tommy Gantt projects ahead on current measurable form and matchup profile. Tommy Gantt holds the clearer grappling edge. Tommy Gantt has the clearer incumbency edge in this division. Division-transition caution: Artur Minev is making a division debut; Tommy Gantt is only in a second fight in this division.

Tommy Gantt shows the clearer grappling edge

Risk flags

Artur Minev low recent sample
Tommy Gantt low recent sample
Artur Minev division debut

Uncertainty / caveats

Artur Minev is making a division debut
Tommy Gantt is only in a second fight in this division
At least one fighter has thin recent sample coverage behind the proxy stats
Probability is adjusted against historical outcome bins; no live track record has been published yet.

12Women's Bantamweight

guarded

Fighter A

Ketlen Vieira

Winner

Div #5P4P #17736M 2-2-0

Win vs Jacqueline Cavalcanti • U-DEC • May 16, 2026

Fighter B

Jacqueline Cavalcanti

lean

Div #9P4P #21036M 4-1-0

Loss vs Ketlen Vieira • U-DEC • May 16, 2026

34%

model lean

Jacqueline Cavalcanti

66%

model leanJacqueline Cavalcanti

66% model win probability for the current lean, but guarded by volatility or weak-regime caveats

Official result: Ketlen Vieira

U-DEC • R3 • 5:00

why the model leans this way

Jacqueline Cavalcanti projects ahead on current measurable form and matchup profile. Jacqueline Cavalcanti holds the clearer form edge.

Jacqueline Cavalcanti shows the clearer form edge

Risk flags

Both fighters carry high finish volatility

Uncertainty / caveats

High-volatility matchup: finish variance is elevated and certainty should be discounted.
Probability is adjusted against historical outcome bins; no live track record has been published yet.

13Middleweight

guarded

Fighter A

Andre Petroski

lean

Div #48P4P #37636M 3-4-0

Loss vs Cody Brundage • KO/TKO • May 16, 2026

3-fight losing streak

Fighter B

Cody Brundage

Winner

Div #44P4P #36636M 3-4-1

Win vs Andre Petroski • KO/TKO • May 16, 2026

66%

model lean

Andre Petroski

34%

model leanAndre Petroski

66% model win probability for the current lean, but guarded by volatility or weak-regime caveats

Official result: Cody Brundage

KO/TKO • R2 • 0:44

why the model leans this way

Andre Petroski projects ahead on current measurable form and matchup profile. Andre Petroski holds the clearer form edge. Andre Petroski holds the clearer grappling edge.

Andre Petroski shows the clearer form edge
Andre Petroski shows the clearer grappling edge

Risk flags

Both fighters carry high finish volatility

Uncertainty / caveats

High-volatility matchup: finish variance is elevated and certainty should be discounted.
Probability is adjusted against historical outcome bins; no live track record has been published yet.

14Women's Strawweight

guarded

Fighter A

Alice Ardelean

Winner

lean

Div #36P4P #58236M 3-2-0

Win vs Polyana Viana • SUB • May 16, 2026

3-fight win streak

Fighter B

Polyana Viana

Div #45P4P #68536M 0-3-0

Loss vs Alice Ardelean • SUB • May 16, 2026

4-fight losing streak

66%

model lean

Alice Ardelean

34%

model leanAlice Ardelean

66% model win probability for the current lean, but guarded by volatility or weak-regime caveats

Official result: Alice Ardelean

SUB • R2 • 4:36

why the model leans this way

Alice Ardelean projects ahead on current measurable form and matchup profile. Alice Ardelean holds the clearer form edge. Alice Ardelean holds the clearer activity edge. Division-transition caution: Proxy-stat sample coverage is only moderate for this matchup.

Alice Ardelean shows the clearer form edge
Alice Ardelean shows the clearer activity edge

Risk flags

Polyana Viana long layoff

Uncertainty / caveats

Proxy-stat sample coverage is only moderate for this matchup
Probability is adjusted against historical outcome bins; no live track record has been published yet.

15Flyweight

guarded

Fighter A

Luis Gurule

Winner

lean

Div #65P4P #55836M 2-4-0

Loss vs Rei Tsuruya • SUB • May 30, 2026

Fighter B

Daniel Barez

Div #50P4P #67636M 1-2-0

Loss vs Luis Gurule • U-DEC • May 16, 2026

2-fight losing streak

62%

model lean

Luis Gurule

38%

model leanLuis Gurule

62% model win probability for the current lean, but guarded by volatility or weak-regime caveats

Official result: Luis Gurule

U-DEC • R3 • 5:00

why the model leans this way

Luis Gurule projects ahead on current measurable form and matchup profile. Luis Gurule holds the clearer activity edge.

Luis Gurule shows the clearer activity edge

Risk flags

Daniel Barez long layoff
Both fighters carry high finish volatility

Uncertainty / caveats

High-volatility matchup: finish variance is elevated and certainty should be discounted.
Probability is adjusted against historical outcome bins; no live track record has been published yet.

16Women's Strawweight

guarded

Fighter A

Shauna Bannon

lean

Div #41P4P #61836M 2-2-0

Loss vs Nicolle Caliari • SUB • May 16, 2026

2-fight losing streak

Fighter B

Nicolle Caliari

Winner

Div #38P4P #59736M 2-2-0

Win vs Shauna Bannon • SUB • May 16, 2026

59%

model lean

Shauna Bannon

41%

model leanShauna Bannon

59% model win probability for the current lean, but guarded by volatility or weak-regime caveats

Official result: Nicolle Caliari

SUB • R3 • 3:08

why the model leans this way

Shauna Bannon projects ahead on current measurable form and matchup profile. Shauna Bannon holds the clearer form edge. Shauna Bannon has the stronger proven sample in this division. Shauna Bannon has the clearer incumbency edge in this division. Shauna Bannon has shown more recent division stability. Division-transition caution: Nicolle Caliari is making a division debut; Nicolle Caliari is moving down in weight.

Shauna Bannon shows the clearer form edge

Risk flags

Both fighters carry high finish volatility
Nicolle Caliari division debut
Nicolle Caliari moving down in weight

Uncertainty / caveats

Known weak regime: stable-incumbent-versus-mover fights remain less trustworthy than the overall stack.
High-volatility matchup: finish variance is elevated and certainty should be discounted.
Nicolle Caliari is making a division debut
Nicolle Caliari is moving down in weight
One fighter is moving down against a stable incumbent