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Calibrated predictions slate

UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Costa

May 16, 2026Las Vegas, Nevada, USA13 of 13 calibrated matchup cards liveFull slate live

This surface shows the governed calibrated stack honestly: probability splits, model reasons, and the caveats that matter when volatility or weak regimes are present.

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What this page is actually doing
  • Shows calibrated probabilities from the governed production alias rather than raw heuristic certainty.
  • Carries volatility and regime caveats forward instead of hiding them behind premium copy.
  • Keeps event rendering tied to real API outputs and real fighter identity data.
Featherweight
guarded
Arnold Allen
vs
Melquizael Costa
lean
calibrated lean
Melquizael Costa
66% calibrated win probability for the current lean, but guarded by volatility or weak-regime caveats
Arnold Allen
34%
Melquizael Costa
66%
why the model leans this way

Melquizael Costa projects ahead on current measurable form and matchup profile. Melquizael Costa holds the clearer form edge Melquizael Costa holds the clearer grappling edge Arnold Allen has the stronger proven sample in this division Empirical calibration applied from historical outcome bins.

  • Melquizael Costa shows the clearer form edge
  • Melquizael Costa shows the clearer grappling edge
Risk flags
  • Both fighters carry high finish volatility
Uncertainty / caveats
  • High-volatility matchup: finish variance is elevated and certainty should be discounted.
  • Probability is shown through the calibrated presentation layer built from baseline-v4-clean.
Light Heavyweight
guarded
Modestas Bukauskas
vs
Rodolfo Bellato
lean
calibrated lean
Rodolfo Bellato
66% calibrated win probability for the current lean, but guarded by volatility or weak-regime caveats
Modestas Bukauskas
34%
Rodolfo Bellato
66%
why the model leans this way

Rodolfo Bellato projects ahead on current measurable form and matchup profile. Modestas Bukauskas holds the clearer form edge Rodolfo Bellato holds the clearer grappling edge Modestas Bukauskas has the stronger proven sample in this division Empirical calibration applied from historical outcome bins.

  • Modestas Bukauskas shows the clearer form edge
  • Rodolfo Bellato shows the clearer grappling edge
Risk flags
  • Both fighters carry high finish volatility
Uncertainty / caveats
  • High-volatility matchup: finish variance is elevated and certainty should be discounted.
  • Probability is shown through the calibrated presentation layer built from baseline-v4-clean.
Light Heavyweight
low
Tuco Tokkos
lean
vs
Ivan Erslan
calibrated lean
Tuco Tokkos
64% calibrated win probability for the current lean
Tuco Tokkos
64%
Ivan Erslan
36%
why the model leans this way

Tuco Tokkos projects ahead on current measurable form and matchup profile. Tuco Tokkos holds the clearer form edge Tuco Tokkos holds the clearer grappling edge Empirical calibration applied from historical outcome bins.

  • Tuco Tokkos shows the clearer form edge
  • Tuco Tokkos shows the clearer grappling edge
Uncertainty / caveats
  • Probability is shown through the calibrated presentation layer built from baseline-v4-clean.
Middleweight
guarded
Andre Petroski
lean
vs
Cody Brundage
calibrated lean
Andre Petroski
66% calibrated win probability for the current lean, but guarded by volatility or weak-regime caveats
Andre Petroski
66%
Cody Brundage
34%
why the model leans this way

Andre Petroski projects ahead on current measurable form and matchup profile. Andre Petroski holds the clearer form edge Cody Brundage holds the clearer activity edge Andre Petroski holds the clearer grappling edge Cody Brundage has the stronger proven sample in this division Empirical calibration applied from historical outcome bins.

  • Andre Petroski shows the clearer form edge
  • Cody Brundage shows the clearer activity edge
  • Andre Petroski shows the clearer grappling edge
Risk flags
  • Both fighters carry high finish volatility
Uncertainty / caveats
  • High-volatility matchup: finish variance is elevated and certainty should be discounted.
  • Probability is shown through the calibrated presentation layer built from baseline-v4-clean.
Welterweight
guarded
Nicolas Dalby
lean
vs
Jeremiah Wells
calibrated lean
Nicolas Dalby
66% calibrated win probability for the current lean, but guarded by volatility or weak-regime caveats
Nicolas Dalby
66%
Jeremiah Wells
34%
why the model leans this way

Nicolas Dalby projects ahead on current measurable form and matchup profile. Nicolas Dalby holds the clearer form edge Jeremiah Wells holds the clearer grappling edge Nicolas Dalby has the stronger proven sample in this division Division-transition caution: Proxy-stat sample coverage is only moderate for this matchup. Empirical calibration applied from historical outcome bins.

  • Nicolas Dalby shows the clearer form edge
  • Jeremiah Wells shows the clearer grappling edge
Risk flags
  • Both fighters carry high finish volatility
Uncertainty / caveats
  • High-volatility matchup: finish variance is elevated and certainty should be discounted.
  • Proxy-stat sample coverage is only moderate for this matchup
  • Probability is shown through the calibrated presentation layer built from baseline-v4-clean.
Lightweight
guarded
Trey Ogden
lean
vs
Tommy Gantt
calibrated lean
Trey Ogden
66% calibrated win probability for the current lean, but guarded by volatility or weak-regime caveats
Trey Ogden
66%
Tommy Gantt
34%
why the model leans this way

Trey Ogden projects ahead on current measurable form and matchup profile. Tommy Gantt holds the clearer form edge Tommy Gantt holds the clearer activity edge Trey Ogden has the stronger proven sample in this division Trey Ogden has the clearer incumbency edge in this division Division-transition caution: Tommy Gantt is only in a second fight in this division; At least one fighter has thin recent sample coverage behind the proxy stats. Empirical calibration applied from historical outcome bins.

  • Tommy Gantt shows the clearer form edge
  • Tommy Gantt shows the clearer activity edge
Risk flags
  • Trey Ogden long layoff
  • Tommy Gantt low recent sample
  • Both fighters carry high finish volatility
Uncertainty / caveats
  • High-volatility matchup: finish variance is elevated and certainty should be discounted.
  • Tommy Gantt is only in a second fight in this division
  • At least one fighter has thin recent sample coverage behind the proxy stats
  • The matchup has uneven recent sample coverage between the fighters
  • Probability is shown through the calibrated presentation layer built from baseline-v4-clean.
Featherweight
guarded
Daniel Santos
vs
Dooho Choi
lean
calibrated lean
Dooho Choi
64% calibrated win probability for the current lean, but guarded by volatility or weak-regime caveats
Daniel Santos
36%
Dooho Choi
64%
why the model leans this way

Dooho Choi projects ahead on current measurable form and matchup profile. Daniel Santos holds the clearer activity edge Daniel Santos holds the clearer grappling edge Dooho Choi has the stronger proven sample in this division Dooho Choi has the clearer incumbency edge in this division Dooho Choi has shown more recent division stability Division-transition caution: Daniel Santos is only in a second fight in this division; At least one fighter has thin recent sample coverage behind the proxy stats. Empirical calibration applied from historical outcome bins.

  • Daniel Santos shows the clearer activity edge
  • Daniel Santos shows the clearer grappling edge
Risk flags
  • Dooho Choi long layoff
  • Both fighters carry high finish volatility
Uncertainty / caveats
  • High-volatility matchup: finish variance is elevated and certainty should be discounted.
  • Daniel Santos is only in a second fight in this division
  • At least one fighter has thin recent sample coverage behind the proxy stats
  • Probability is shown through the calibrated presentation layer built from baseline-v4-clean.
Bantamweight
guarded
Malcolm Wellmaker
vs
Juan Diaz
lean
calibrated lean
Juan Diaz
66% calibrated win probability for the current lean, but guarded by volatility or weak-regime caveats
Malcolm Wellmaker
34%
Juan Diaz
66%
why the model leans this way

Juan Diaz projects ahead on current measurable form and matchup profile. Juan Diaz holds the clearer form edge Juan Diaz holds the clearer grappling edge Malcolm Wellmaker has the stronger proven sample in this division Malcolm Wellmaker has the clearer incumbency edge in this division Division-transition caution: Malcolm Wellmaker is moving down in weight; Juan Diaz is only in a second fight in this division. Empirical calibration applied from historical outcome bins.

  • Juan Diaz shows the clearer form edge
  • Juan Diaz shows the clearer grappling edge
Risk flags
  • Juan Diaz low recent sample
  • Both fighters carry high finish volatility
  • Malcolm Wellmaker moving down in weight
Uncertainty / caveats
  • High-volatility matchup: finish variance is elevated and certainty should be discounted.
  • Malcolm Wellmaker is moving down in weight
  • Juan Diaz is only in a second fight in this division
  • At least one fighter has thin recent sample coverage behind the proxy stats
  • The matchup has uneven recent sample coverage between the fighters
Bantamweight
guarded
Timmy Cuamba
vs
Benardo Sopaj
lean
calibrated lean
Benardo Sopaj
66% calibrated win probability for the current lean, but guarded by volatility or weak-regime caveats
Timmy Cuamba
34%
Benardo Sopaj
66%
why the model leans this way

Benardo Sopaj projects ahead on current measurable form and matchup profile. Timmy Cuamba holds the clearer activity edge Benardo Sopaj holds the clearer grappling edge Benardo Sopaj has the clearer incumbency edge in this division Benardo Sopaj has shown more recent division stability Division-transition caution: Timmy Cuamba is only in a second fight in this division; At least one fighter has thin recent sample coverage behind the proxy stats. Empirical calibration applied from historical outcome bins.

  • Timmy Cuamba shows the clearer activity edge
  • Benardo Sopaj shows the clearer grappling edge
Risk flags
  • Benardo Sopaj long layoff
  • Both fighters carry high finish volatility
Uncertainty / caveats
  • High-volatility matchup: finish variance is elevated and certainty should be discounted.
  • Timmy Cuamba is only in a second fight in this division
  • At least one fighter has thin recent sample coverage behind the proxy stats
  • Probability is shown through the calibrated presentation layer built from baseline-v4-clean.
Flyweight
guarded
Luis Gurule
lean
vs
Daniel Barez
calibrated lean
Luis Gurule
62% calibrated win probability for the current lean, but guarded by volatility or weak-regime caveats
Luis Gurule
62%
Daniel Barez
38%
why the model leans this way

Luis Gurule projects ahead on current measurable form and matchup profile. Luis Gurule holds the clearer activity edge Daniel Barez holds the clearer grappling edge Empirical calibration applied from historical outcome bins.

  • Luis Gurule shows the clearer activity edge
  • Daniel Barez shows the clearer grappling edge
Risk flags
  • Daniel Barez long layoff
  • Both fighters carry high finish volatility
Uncertainty / caveats
  • High-volatility matchup: finish variance is elevated and certainty should be discounted.
  • Probability is shown through the calibrated presentation layer built from baseline-v4-clean.
Women's Bantamweight
guarded
Ketlen Vieira
vs
Jacqueline Cavalcanti
lean
calibrated lean
Jacqueline Cavalcanti
66% calibrated win probability for the current lean, but guarded by volatility or weak-regime caveats
Ketlen Vieira
34%
Jacqueline Cavalcanti
66%
why the model leans this way

Jacqueline Cavalcanti projects ahead on current measurable form and matchup profile. Jacqueline Cavalcanti holds the clearer form edge Ketlen Vieira holds the clearer grappling edge Ketlen Vieira has the stronger proven sample in this division Empirical calibration applied from historical outcome bins.

  • Jacqueline Cavalcanti shows the clearer form edge
  • Ketlen Vieira shows the clearer grappling edge
Risk flags
  • Both fighters carry high finish volatility
Uncertainty / caveats
  • High-volatility matchup: finish variance is elevated and certainty should be discounted.
  • Probability is shown through the calibrated presentation layer built from baseline-v4-clean.
Women's Strawweight
guarded
Alice Ardelean
lean
vs
Polyana Viana
calibrated lean
Alice Ardelean
66% calibrated win probability for the current lean, but guarded by volatility or weak-regime caveats
Alice Ardelean
66%
Polyana Viana
34%
why the model leans this way

Alice Ardelean projects ahead on current measurable form and matchup profile. Alice Ardelean holds the clearer form edge Alice Ardelean holds the clearer activity edge Polyana Viana has the stronger proven sample in this division Division-transition caution: Proxy-stat sample coverage is only moderate for this matchup. Empirical calibration applied from historical outcome bins.

  • Alice Ardelean shows the clearer form edge
  • Alice Ardelean shows the clearer activity edge
Risk flags
  • Polyana Viana long layoff
Uncertainty / caveats
  • Proxy-stat sample coverage is only moderate for this matchup
  • Probability is shown through the calibrated presentation layer built from baseline-v4-clean.
Women's Strawweight
guarded
Shauna Bannon
lean
vs
Nicolle Caliari
calibrated lean
Shauna Bannon
59% calibrated win probability for the current lean, but guarded by volatility or weak-regime caveats
Shauna Bannon
59%
Nicolle Caliari
41%
why the model leans this way

Shauna Bannon projects ahead on current measurable form and matchup profile. Shauna Bannon holds the clearer form edge Nicolle Caliari holds the clearer grappling edge Shauna Bannon has the stronger proven sample in this division Shauna Bannon has the clearer incumbency edge in this division Shauna Bannon has shown more recent division stability Division-transition caution: Nicolle Caliari is making a division debut; Nicolle Caliari is moving down in weight. Empirical calibration applied from historical outcome bins.

  • Shauna Bannon shows the clearer form edge
  • Nicolle Caliari shows the clearer grappling edge
Risk flags
  • Both fighters carry high finish volatility
  • Nicolle Caliari division debut
  • Nicolle Caliari moving down in weight
Uncertainty / caveats
  • Known weak regime: stable-incumbent-versus-mover fights remain less trustworthy than the overall stack.
  • High-volatility matchup: finish variance is elevated and certainty should be discounted.
  • Nicolle Caliari is making a division debut
  • Nicolle Caliari is moving down in weight
  • One fighter is moving down against a stable incumbent