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UFC 331: Van vs. Pantoja 2

Sep 19, 2026Los Angeles, California, USA13 of 13 calibrated matchup cards liveFull slate live

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What this page is actually doing
  • Shows calibrated probabilities from the governed production alias rather than raw heuristic certainty.
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  • Keeps event rendering tied to real API outputs and real fighter identity data.
UFC Flyweight Title
guarded
Joshua Van
lean
vs
Alexandre Pantoja
calibrated lean
Joshua Van
66% calibrated win probability for the current lean, but guarded by volatility or weak-regime caveats
Joshua Van
66%
Alexandre Pantoja
34%
why the model leans this way

Joshua Van projects ahead on current measurable form and matchup profile. Joshua Van holds the clearer activity edge Alexandre Pantoja holds the clearer grappling edge Alexandre Pantoja has the stronger proven sample in this division Empirical calibration applied from historical outcome bins.

  • Joshua Van shows the clearer activity edge
  • Alexandre Pantoja shows the clearer grappling edge
Risk flags
  • Both fighters carry high finish volatility
Uncertainty / caveats
  • High-volatility matchup: finish variance is elevated and certainty should be discounted.
  • Probability is shown through the calibrated presentation layer built from baseline-v4-clean.
Heavyweight
guarded
Sean Sharaf
vs
Gable Steveson
lean
calibrated lean
Gable Steveson
66% calibrated win probability for the current lean, but guarded by volatility or weak-regime caveats
Sean Sharaf
34%
Gable Steveson
66%
why the model leans this way

Gable Steveson projects ahead on current measurable form and matchup profile. Gable Steveson holds the clearer form edge Sean Sharaf has the stronger proven sample in this division Sean Sharaf has the clearer incumbency edge in this division Division-transition caution: Gable Steveson is only in a second fight in this division; At least one fighter has thin recent sample coverage behind the proxy stats. Empirical calibration applied from historical outcome bins.

  • Gable Steveson shows the clearer form edge
Risk flags
  • Gable Steveson low recent sample
Uncertainty / caveats
  • Gable Steveson is only in a second fight in this division
  • At least one fighter has thin recent sample coverage behind the proxy stats
  • The matchup has uneven recent sample coverage between the fighters
  • Probability is shown through the calibrated presentation layer built from baseline-v4-clean.
Heavyweight
locked
Robelis Despaigne
vs
Tai Tuivasa
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Light Heavyweight
locked
Iwo Baraniewski
vs
Alonzo Menifield
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Middleweight
locked
Brunno Ferreira
vs
Edmen Shahbazyan
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Middleweight
locked
Ozzy Diaz
vs
Ryan Gandra
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Lightweight
locked
Mauricio Ruffy
vs
Arman Tsarukyan
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Lightweight
locked
Renato Moicano
vs
Brian Ortega
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Featherweight
locked
Patricio Pitbull
vs
Dooho Choi
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Featherweight
locked
Joanderson Brito
vs
Giga Chikadze
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Featherweight
locked
Michael Aswell Jr.
vs
JooSang Yoo
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Bantamweight
locked
Marlon Vera
vs
Charles Jourdain
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Women's Flyweight
locked
Casey O'Neill
vs
Eduarda Moura
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11 more bouts on this card

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