All events
Event· Sep 12, 2026

Noche UFC: Silva vs. Delgado

The fight card and the model read for every bout, together. Each read shows the probability split, the reasons behind the lean, and the caveats that matter. The model is early-stage and no live track record has been published yet.

Glendale, Arizona, USACompleted eventFull slate live14 of 14 bouts with a model readPublished Aug 28, 2026 · 14d before the card
Receipt
Read first published
Aug 28, 2026
Lead time
14 days before the card
Read last refreshed
Sep 11, 2026
Card last checked
Sep 25, 2026, 10:02 AM UTC
Card vs read
In sync

Shown unedited since first publication. The date above is the first publication, not the refresh.

Bouts
14
Model reads
14
Full slate live
Toss-ups
1
Within half a point of 50/50
Completed
13
Official results recorded
Scored receipt
Model 8 of 12

Every bout with a published read, scored against the official result. One card is a small sample; the running record is what counts.

BoutModelWinner
Jean Silva vs Jose DelgadoJose Delgado66%WrongJean Silva
Joseph Morales vs Brandon MorenoBrandon Moreno66%RightBrandon Moreno
Tommy McMillen vs Marwan RahikiTommy McMillen66%RightTommy McMillen
Manon Fiorot vs Alexa GrassoManon Fiorot66%WrongAlexa Grasso
Curtis Blaydes vs Waldo Cortes AcostaWaldo Cortes Acosta66%WrongCurtis Blaydes
Dan Ige vs David MartinezDavid Martinez59%RightDavid Martinez
Edgar Chairez vs Tim ElliottTim Elliott66%RightTim Elliott
Muslim Salikhov vs Ignacio BahamondesToss-up50%Ignacio Bahamondes
Djorden Santos vs Yousri BelgarouiYousri Belgaroui66%RightYousri Belgaroui
Drakkar Klose vs Tommy GanttDrakkar Klose62%WrongTommy Gantt
Rongzhu vs Rafa GarciaRongzhu55%RightRongzhu
Sean King III vs Jessie RosasSean King III51%RightSean King III
JJ Aldrich vs Regina TarinRegina Tarin55%RightRegina Tarin
01Featherweight
guarded
Fighter A
Jean Silva
Winner
Div #5P4P #3136M 7-1-0
Win vs Jose Delgado • SUB • Sep 12, 2026
2-fight win streak
vs
Fighter B
Jose Delgado
lean
Div #16P4P #13536M 5-2-0
Loss vs Jean Silva • SUB • Sep 12, 2026
34%
66%
model leanJose Delgado

66% model win probability for the current lean, but guarded by volatility or weak-regime caveats

Official result: Jean Silva
SUB • R3 • 2:57
why the model leans this way

Jose Delgado projects ahead on current measurable form and matchup profile. Jose Delgado holds the clearer activity edge.

  • Jose Delgado shows the clearer activity edge
Risk flags
  • Both fighters carry high finish volatility
Uncertainty / caveats
  • High-volatility matchup: finish variance is elevated and certainty should be discounted.
  • Probability is adjusted against historical outcome bins; no live track record has been published yet.
02Flyweight
guarded
Fighter A
Joseph Morales
Div #30P4P #42336M 2-1-0
Loss vs Brandon Moreno • S-DEC • Sep 12, 2026
vs
Fighter B
Brandon Moreno
Winner
lean
Div #7P4P #14236M 3-3-0
Win vs Joseph Morales • S-DEC • Sep 12, 2026
34%
66%
model leanBrandon Moreno

66% model win probability for the current lean, but guarded by volatility or weak-regime caveats

Official result: Brandon Moreno
S-DEC • R3 • 5:00
why the model leans this way

Brandon Moreno projects ahead on current measurable form and matchup profile. Brandon Moreno has the stronger proven sample in this division. Brandon Moreno has shown more recent division stability. Division-transition caution: Proxy-stat sample coverage is only moderate for this matchup; The matchup has uneven recent sample coverage between the fighters.

Risk flags
  • Both fighters carry high finish volatility
Uncertainty / caveats
  • High-volatility matchup: finish variance is elevated and certainty should be discounted.
  • Proxy-stat sample coverage is only moderate for this matchup
  • The matchup has uneven recent sample coverage between the fighters
  • Probability is adjusted against historical outcome bins; no live track record has been published yet.
03Featherweight
guarded
Fighter A
Tommy McMillen
Winner
lean
Div #20P4P #17836M 4-0-0
Win vs Marwan Rahiki • Decision - Unanimous • Sep 12, 2026
4-fight win streak
vs
Fighter B
Marwan Rahiki
Div #47P4P #38236M 3-1-0
Loss vs Tommy McMillen • Decision - Unanimous • Sep 12, 2026
66%
34%
model leanTommy McMillen

66% model win probability for the current lean, but guarded by volatility or weak-regime caveats

Official result: Tommy McMillen
Decision - Unanimous • R3 • 5:00
why the model leans this way

Tommy McMillen projects ahead on current measurable form and matchup profile. The matchup looks relatively balanced on current measurable form.

Risk flags
  • Both fighters carry high finish volatility
Uncertainty / caveats
  • High-volatility matchup: finish variance is elevated and certainty should be discounted.
  • Probability is adjusted against historical outcome bins; no live track record has been published yet.
04Women's Flyweight
guarded
Fighter A
Manon Fiorot
lean
Div #7P4P #10936M 2-2-0
Loss vs Alexa Grasso • Decision - Unanimous • Sep 12, 2026
vs
Fighter B
Alexa Grasso
Winner
Div #5P4P #8236M 2-2-0
Win vs Manon Fiorot • Decision - Unanimous • Sep 12, 2026
2-fight win streak
66%
34%
model leanManon Fiorot

66% model win probability for the current lean, but guarded by volatility or weak-regime caveats

Official result: Alexa Grasso
Decision - Unanimous • R3 • 5:00
why the model leans this way

Manon Fiorot projects ahead on current measurable form and matchup profile. Manon Fiorot holds the clearer form edge.

  • Manon Fiorot shows the clearer form edge
Risk flags
  • Both fighters carry high finish volatility
Uncertainty / caveats
  • High-volatility matchup: finish variance is elevated and certainty should be discounted.
  • Probability is adjusted against historical outcome bins; no live track record has been published yet.
05Heavyweight
guarded
Fighter A
Curtis Blaydes
Winner
Div #7P4P #5236M 3-2-0
Win vs Waldo Cortes Acosta • Decision - Unanimous • Sep 12, 2026
vs
Fighter B
Waldo Cortes Acosta
lean
Div #5P4P #3836M 7-3-0
Loss vs Curtis Blaydes • Decision - Unanimous • Sep 12, 2026
2-fight losing streak
34%
66%
model leanWaldo Cortes Acosta

66% model win probability for the current lean, but guarded by volatility or weak-regime caveats

Official result: Curtis Blaydes
Decision - Unanimous • R3 • 5:00
why the model leans this way

Waldo Cortes Acosta projects ahead on current measurable form and matchup profile. Waldo Cortes Acosta holds the clearer form edge.

  • Waldo Cortes Acosta shows the clearer form edge
Risk flags
  • Both fighters carry high finish volatility
Uncertainty / caveats
  • High-volatility matchup: finish variance is elevated and certainty should be discounted.
  • Probability is adjusted against historical outcome bins; no live track record has been published yet.
06Bantamweight
guarded
Fighter A
Dan Ige
Div #27P4P #22336M 2-5-0
Loss vs David Martinez • Decision - Unanimous • Sep 12, 2026
3-fight losing streak
vs
Fighter B
David Martinez
Winner
lean
Div #8P4P #6236M 5-0-0
Win vs Dan Ige • Decision - Unanimous • Sep 12, 2026
5-fight win streak
41%
59%
model leanDavid Martinez

59% model win probability for the current lean, but guarded by volatility or weak-regime caveats

Official result: David Martinez
Decision - Unanimous • R3 • 5:00
why the model leans this way

David Martinez projects ahead on current measurable form and matchup profile. David Martinez holds the clearer form edge. David Martinez has the stronger proven sample in this division. David Martinez has the clearer incumbency edge in this division. David Martinez has shown more recent division stability. Division-transition caution: Dan Ige is making a division debut; Dan Ige is moving down in weight.

  • David Martinez shows the clearer form edge
Risk flags
  • Both fighters carry high finish volatility
  • Dan Ige division debut
  • Dan Ige moving down in weight
Uncertainty / caveats
  • Known weak regime: stable-incumbent-versus-mover fights remain less trustworthy than the overall stack.
  • High-volatility matchup: finish variance is elevated and certainty should be discounted.
  • Dan Ige is making a division debut
  • Dan Ige is moving down in weight
  • One fighter is moving down against a stable incumbent
07Catch Weight
guarded
Fighter A
Edgar Chairez
Div #22P4P #37336M 4-2-0
Loss vs Tim Elliott • U-DEC • Sep 12, 2026
vs
Fighter B
Tim Elliott
Winner
lean
Div #19P4P #28636M 3-2-0
Win vs Edgar Chairez • U-DEC • Sep 12, 2026
34%
66%
model leanTim Elliott

66% model win probability for the current lean, but guarded by volatility or weak-regime caveats

Official result: Tim Elliott
U-DEC • R3 • 5:00
why the model leans this way

Tim Elliott projects ahead on current measurable form and matchup profile. Tim Elliott holds the clearer grappling edge. Division-transition caution: Edgar Chairez is only in a second fight in this division; Tim Elliott is making a division debut.

  • Tim Elliott shows the clearer grappling edge
Risk flags
  • Both fighters carry high finish volatility
  • Tim Elliott division debut
Uncertainty / caveats
  • High-volatility matchup: finish variance is elevated and certainty should be discounted.
  • Edgar Chairez is only in a second fight in this division
  • Tim Elliott is making a division debut
  • At least one fighter has thin recent sample coverage behind the proxy stats
  • Probability is adjusted against historical outcome bins; no live track record has been published yet.
08Welterweight
guarded
Fighter A
Muslim Salikhov
even
Div #32P4P #22036M 3-3-0
Loss vs Ignacio Bahamondes • Decision - Unanimous • Sep 12, 2026
2-fight losing streak
vs
Fighter B
Ignacio Bahamondes
Winner
even
Div #30P4P #16636M 4-2-0
Win vs Muslim Salikhov • Decision - Unanimous • Sep 12, 2026
50%
50%
model readToss-up

Even 50/50 model read, no lean on this bout, but guarded by volatility or weak-regime caveats

Official result: Ignacio Bahamondes
Decision - Unanimous • R3 • 5:00
what the model sees

The model splits this bout evenly between Muslim Salikhov and Ignacio Bahamondes. Neither fighter projects ahead on the measured dimensions, so there is no lean to justify.

Risk flags
  • Both fighters carry high finish volatility
  • Ignacio Bahamondes moving up in weight
Uncertainty / caveats
  • Known weak regime: stable-incumbent-versus-mover fights remain less trustworthy than the overall stack.
  • High-volatility matchup: finish variance is elevated and certainty should be discounted.
  • Incumbent-versus-unproven-mover dynamic: this regime remains structurally fragile for the model.
  • Ignacio Bahamondes is only in a second fight in this division
  • Ignacio Bahamondes is moving up in weight
09Middleweight
guarded
Fighter A
Djorden Santos
Div #64P4P #55136M 2-3-0
Loss vs Yousri Belgaroui • KO/TKO • Sep 12, 2026
2-fight losing streak
vs
Fighter B
Yousri Belgaroui
Winner
lean
Div #21P4P #17636M 4-0-0
Win vs Djorden Santos • KO/TKO • Sep 12, 2026
4-fight win streak
34%
66%
model leanYousri Belgaroui

66% model win probability for the current lean, but guarded by volatility or weak-regime caveats

Official result: Yousri Belgaroui
KO/TKO • R1 • 4:25
why the model leans this way

Yousri Belgaroui projects ahead on current measurable form and matchup profile. Yousri Belgaroui holds the clearer form edge. Yousri Belgaroui holds the clearer striking edge.

  • Yousri Belgaroui shows the clearer form edge
  • Yousri Belgaroui shows the clearer striking edge
Risk flags
  • Both fighters carry high finish volatility
Uncertainty / caveats
  • High-volatility matchup: finish variance is elevated and certainty should be discounted.
  • Probability is adjusted against historical outcome bins; no live track record has been published yet.
10Lightweight
guarded
Fighter A
Drakkar Klose
lean
Div #25P4P #16736M 3-2-0
Loss vs Tommy Gantt • Submission • Sep 12, 2026
vs
Fighter B
Tommy Gantt
Winner
Div #31P4P #18836M 3-0-0
Win vs Drakkar Klose • Submission • Sep 12, 2026
3-fight win streak
62%
38%
model leanDrakkar Klose

62% model win probability for the current lean, but guarded by volatility or weak-regime caveats

Official result: Tommy Gantt
Submission • R3 • 2:46
why the model leans this way

Drakkar Klose projects ahead on current measurable form and matchup profile. Drakkar Klose has the stronger proven sample in this division. Division-transition caution: Proxy-stat sample coverage is only moderate for this matchup.

Risk flags
  • Drakkar Klose long layoff
  • Both fighters carry high finish volatility
Uncertainty / caveats
  • High-volatility matchup: finish variance is elevated and certainty should be discounted.
  • Proxy-stat sample coverage is only moderate for this matchup
  • Probability is adjusted against historical outcome bins; no live track record has been published yet.
11Featherweight
guarded
Fighter A
Ramiro Jimenez
lean
Div #69P4P #52936M 1-0-0
Win vs Tommy Cuozzi Jr. • KO/TKO • Aug 19, 2025
vs
Fighter B
Rodrigo Vera
Div #42P4P #33736M 1-0-0
Win vs Zhu Kangjie • KO/TKO • May 30, 2026
66%
34%
model leanRamiro Jimenez

66% model win probability for the current lean, but guarded by volatility or weak-regime caveats

why the model leans this way

Ramiro Jimenez projects ahead on current measurable form and matchup profile. Division-transition caution: Ramiro Jimenez is only in a second fight in this division; Rodrigo Vera is only in a second fight in this division.

Risk flags
  • Ramiro Jimenez long layoff
  • Ramiro Jimenez low recent sample
  • Rodrigo Vera low recent sample
  • Both fighters carry high finish volatility
Uncertainty / caveats
  • High-volatility matchup: finish variance is elevated and certainty should be discounted.
  • Ramiro Jimenez is only in a second fight in this division
  • Rodrigo Vera is only in a second fight in this division
  • At least one fighter has thin recent sample coverage behind the proxy stats
  • Probability is adjusted against historical outcome bins; no live track record has been published yet.
12Lightweight
guarded
Fighter A
Rongzhu
Winner
lean
Div #22P4P #15636M 5-1-0
Win vs Rafa Garcia • Decision - Unanimous • Sep 12, 2026
4-fight win streak
vs
Fighter B
Rafa Garcia
Div #26P4P #16936M 3-2-0
Loss vs Rongzhu • Decision - Unanimous • Sep 12, 2026
55%
45%
model leanRongzhu

55% model win probability for the current lean, but guarded by volatility or weak-regime caveats

Official result: Rongzhu
Decision - Unanimous • R3 • 5:00
why the model leans this way

Rongzhu projects ahead on current measurable form and matchup profile.

Risk flags
  • Both fighters carry high finish volatility
Uncertainty / caveats
  • High-volatility matchup: finish variance is elevated and certainty should be discounted.
  • Probability is adjusted against historical outcome bins; no live track record has been published yet.
13Featherweight
guarded
Fighter A
Sean King III
Winner
lean
Div #66P4P #51036M 1-0-0
Win vs Jessie Rosas • KO/TKO • Sep 12, 2026
vs
Fighter B
Jessie Rosas
Div #104P4P #75636M 0-1-0
Loss vs Sean King III • KO/TKO • Sep 12, 2026
51%
49%
model leanSean King III

51% model win probability for the current lean, but guarded by volatility or weak-regime caveats

Official result: Sean King III
KO/TKO • R1 • 0:36
why the model leans this way

Sean King III projects ahead on current measurable form and matchup profile. The matchup looks relatively balanced on current measurable form. Division-transition caution: Sean King III is making a division debut; Jessie Rosas is making a division debut.

Risk flags
  • Sean King III low recent sample
  • Jessie Rosas low recent sample
  • Sean King III division debut
  • Jessie Rosas division debut
Uncertainty / caveats
  • Sean King III is making a division debut
  • Jessie Rosas is making a division debut
  • At least one fighter has thin recent sample coverage behind the proxy stats
  • Probability is adjusted against historical outcome bins; no live track record has been published yet.
14Women's Flyweight
guarded
Fighter A
JJ Aldrich
Div #21P4P #37236M 2-2-0
Loss vs Regina Tarin • U-DEC • Sep 12, 2026
vs
Fighter B
Regina Tarin
Winner
lean
Div #13P4P #25436M 2-0-0
Win vs JJ Aldrich • U-DEC • Sep 12, 2026
2-fight win streak
45%
55%
model leanRegina Tarin

55% model win probability for the current lean, but guarded by volatility or weak-regime caveats

Official result: Regina Tarin
U-DEC • R3 • 5:00
why the model leans this way

Regina Tarin projects ahead on current measurable form and matchup profile. Regina Tarin holds the clearer form edge. Division-transition caution: Regina Tarin is making a division debut; At least one fighter has thin recent sample coverage behind the proxy stats.

  • Regina Tarin shows the clearer form edge
Risk flags
  • Regina Tarin low recent sample
  • Both fighters carry high finish volatility
  • Regina Tarin division debut
Uncertainty / caveats
  • High-volatility matchup: finish variance is elevated and certainty should be discounted.
  • Regina Tarin is making a division debut
  • At least one fighter has thin recent sample coverage behind the proxy stats
  • The matchup has uneven recent sample coverage between the fighters
  • Probability is adjusted against historical outcome bins; no live track record has been published yet.