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Event· Sep 19, 2026

UFC 331: Van vs. Pantoja 2

The fight card and the model read for every bout, together. Each read shows the probability split, the reasons behind the lean, and the caveats that matter. The model is early-stage and no live track record has been published yet.

Los Angeles, California, USACompleted eventFull slate live13 of 13 bouts with a model readPublished Aug 28, 2026 · 21d before the card
Receipt
Read first published
Aug 28, 2026
Lead time
21 days before the card
Read last refreshed
Never
Card last checked
Oct 2, 2026, 10:02 AM UTC
Card vs read
In sync

Shown unedited since first publication.

Bouts
13
Model reads
13
Full slate live
Toss-ups
0
Within half a point of 50/50
Completed
12
Official results recorded
Scored receipt
Model 7 of 12

Every bout with a published read, scored against the official result. One card is a small sample; the running record is what counts.

BoutModelWinner
Joshua Van vs Alexandre PantojaJoshua Van66%RightJoshua Van
Mauricio Ruffy vs Arman TsarukyanArman Tsarukyan66%RightArman Tsarukyan
Patricio Pitbull vs Dooho ChoiDooho Choi66%WrongPatricio Pitbull
Sean Sharaf vs Gable StevesonGable Steveson66%WrongSean Sharaf
Iwo Baraniewski vs Alonzo MenifieldAlonzo Menifield66%RightAlonzo Menifield
Marlon Vera vs Charles JourdainCharles Jourdain66%WrongMarlon Vera
Robelis Despaigne vs Tai TuivasaTai Tuivasa62%WrongRobelis Despaigne
Michael Aswell Jr. vs JooSang YooMichael Aswell Jr.66%RightMichael Aswell Jr.
Ozzy Diaz vs Ryan GandraRyan Gandra66%RightRyan Gandra
Brunno Ferreira vs Edmen ShahbazyanEdmen Shahbazyan62%RightEdmen Shahbazyan
Casey O'Neill vs Eduarda MouraCasey O'Neill66%RightCasey O'Neill
Joanderson Brito vs Giga ChikadzeGiga Chikadze51%WrongJoanderson Brito
01Flyweight TitleTitle fight
guarded
Fighter A
Joshua Van
Winner
lean
Div #1P4P #1736M 10-1-0
Win vs Alexandre Pantoja • Decision - Unanimous • Sep 19, 2026
8-fight win streak
vs
Fighter B
Alexandre Pantoja
Div #3P4P #8336M 4-2-0
Loss vs Joshua Van • Decision - Unanimous • Sep 19, 2026
2-fight losing streak
66%
34%
model leanJoshua Van

66% model win probability for the current lean, but guarded by volatility or weak-regime caveats

Official result: Joshua Van
Decision - Unanimous • R5 • 5:00
why the model leans this way

Joshua Van projects ahead on current measurable form and matchup profile. Joshua Van holds the clearer activity edge.

  • Joshua Van shows the clearer activity edge
Risk flags
  • Both fighters carry high finish volatility
Uncertainty / caveats
  • High-volatility matchup: finish variance is elevated and certainty should be discounted.
  • Probability is adjusted against historical outcome bins; no live track record has been published yet.
02Lightweight
guarded
Fighter A
Mauricio Ruffy
Div #12P4P #8136M 5-2-0
Loss vs Arman Tsarukyan • KO/TKO • Sep 19, 2026
vs
Fighter B
Arman Tsarukyan
Winner
lean
Div #3P4P #836M 4-0-0
Win vs Mauricio Ruffy • KO/TKO • Sep 19, 2026
6-fight win streak
34%
66%
model leanArman Tsarukyan

66% model win probability for the current lean, but guarded by volatility or weak-regime caveats

Official result: Arman Tsarukyan
KO/TKO • R1 • 4:56
why the model leans this way

Arman Tsarukyan projects ahead on current measurable form and matchup profile. Arman Tsarukyan holds the clearer grappling edge. Arman Tsarukyan has the stronger proven sample in this division. Division-transition caution: Proxy-stat sample coverage is only moderate for this matchup; The matchup has uneven recent sample coverage between the fighters.

  • Arman Tsarukyan shows the clearer grappling edge
Risk flags
  • Both fighters carry high finish volatility
Uncertainty / caveats
  • High-volatility matchup: finish variance is elevated and certainty should be discounted.
  • Proxy-stat sample coverage is only moderate for this matchup
  • The matchup has uneven recent sample coverage between the fighters
  • Probability is adjusted against historical outcome bins; no live track record has been published yet.
03Featherweight
guarded
Fighter A
Patricio Pitbull
Winner
Div #39P4P #32236M 2-2-0
Win vs Dooho Choi • KO/TKO • Sep 19, 2026
vs
Fighter B
Dooho Choi
lean
Div #27P4P #23636M 3-1-0
Loss vs Patricio Pitbull • KO/TKO • Sep 19, 2026
34%
66%
model leanDooho Choi

66% model win probability for the current lean, but guarded by volatility or weak-regime caveats

Official result: Patricio Pitbull
KO/TKO • R1 • 3:28
why the model leans this way

Dooho Choi projects ahead on current measurable form and matchup profile. Dooho Choi holds the clearer form edge. Dooho Choi has the stronger proven sample in this division.

  • Dooho Choi shows the clearer form edge
Risk flags
  • Both fighters carry high finish volatility
Uncertainty / caveats
  • High-volatility matchup: finish variance is elevated and certainty should be discounted.
  • Probability is adjusted against historical outcome bins; no live track record has been published yet.
04Heavyweight
guarded
Fighter A
Sean Sharaf
Winner
Div #49P4P #66736M 1-2-0
Win vs Gable Steveson • KO/TKO • Sep 19, 2026
vs
Fighter B
Gable Steveson
lean
Div #52P4P #69236M 1-1-0
Loss vs Sean Sharaf • KO/TKO • Sep 19, 2026
34%
66%
model leanGable Steveson

66% model win probability for the current lean, but guarded by volatility or weak-regime caveats

Official result: Sean Sharaf
KO/TKO • R1 • 0:12
why the model leans this way

Gable Steveson projects ahead on current measurable form and matchup profile. Gable Steveson holds the clearer form edge. Division-transition caution: Gable Steveson is only in a second fight in this division; At least one fighter has thin recent sample coverage behind the proxy stats.

  • Gable Steveson shows the clearer form edge
Risk flags
  • Gable Steveson low recent sample
Uncertainty / caveats
  • Gable Steveson is only in a second fight in this division
  • At least one fighter has thin recent sample coverage behind the proxy stats
  • The matchup has uneven recent sample coverage between the fighters
  • Probability is adjusted against historical outcome bins; no live track record has been published yet.
05Lightweight
guarded
Fighter A
Renato Moicano
lean
Div #8P4P #5436M 4-2-0
Win vs Chris Duncan • SUB • Apr 4, 2026
vs
Fighter B
Brian Ortega
Div #18P4P #13936M 1-2-0
Loss vs Aljamain Sterling • U-DEC • Aug 23, 2025
2-fight losing streak
66%
34%
model leanRenato Moicano

66% model win probability for the current lean, but guarded by volatility or weak-regime caveats

why the model leans this way

Renato Moicano projects ahead on current measurable form and matchup profile. Renato Moicano holds the clearer form edge. Renato Moicano holds the clearer activity edge. Renato Moicano has the stronger proven sample in this division. Renato Moicano has the clearer incumbency edge in this division. Renato Moicano has shown more recent division stability. Division-transition caution: Brian Ortega is making a division debut; At least one fighter has thin recent sample coverage behind the proxy stats.

  • Renato Moicano shows the clearer form edge
  • Renato Moicano shows the clearer activity edge
Risk flags
  • Brian Ortega long layoff
  • Both fighters carry high finish volatility
  • Brian Ortega division debut
Uncertainty / caveats
  • High-volatility matchup: finish variance is elevated and certainty should be discounted.
  • Brian Ortega is making a division debut
  • At least one fighter has thin recent sample coverage behind the proxy stats
  • The matchup has uneven recent sample coverage between the fighters
  • Probability is adjusted against historical outcome bins; no live track record has been published yet.
06Light Heavyweight
guarded
Fighter A
Iwo Baraniewski
Div #24P4P #31136M 4-1-0
Loss vs Alonzo Menifield • Decision - Split • Sep 19, 2026
vs
Fighter B
Alonzo Menifield
Winner
lean
Div #9P4P #10836M 5-3-0
Win vs Iwo Baraniewski • Decision - Split • Sep 19, 2026
2-fight win streak
34%
66%
model leanAlonzo Menifield

66% model win probability for the current lean, but guarded by volatility or weak-regime caveats

Official result: Alonzo Menifield
Decision - Split • R3 • 5:00
why the model leans this way

Alonzo Menifield projects ahead on current measurable form and matchup profile. Alonzo Menifield has the stronger proven sample in this division.

Risk flags
  • Both fighters carry high finish volatility
Uncertainty / caveats
  • High-volatility matchup: finish variance is elevated and certainty should be discounted.
  • Probability is adjusted against historical outcome bins; no live track record has been published yet.
07Bantamweight
low
Fighter A
Marlon Vera
Winner
Div #21P4P #17936M 1-4-0
Win vs Charles Jourdain • KO/TKO • Sep 19, 2026
vs
Fighter B
Charles Jourdain
lean
Div #24P4P #21136M 3-3-0
Loss vs Marlon Vera • KO/TKO • Sep 19, 2026
34%
66%
model leanCharles Jourdain

66% model win probability for the current lean

Official result: Marlon Vera
KO/TKO • R3 • 2:02
why the model leans this way

Charles Jourdain projects ahead on current measurable form and matchup profile. Charles Jourdain holds the clearer form edge.

  • Charles Jourdain shows the clearer form edge
Uncertainty / caveats
  • Probability is adjusted against historical outcome bins; no live track record has been published yet.
08Heavyweight
guarded
Fighter A
Robelis Despaigne
Winner
Div #38P4P #50236M 2-2-0
Win vs Tai Tuivasa • Decision - Split • Sep 19, 2026
vs
Fighter B
Tai Tuivasa
lean
Div #42P4P #53536M 0-5-0
Loss vs Robelis Despaigne • Decision - Split • Sep 19, 2026
8-fight losing streak
38%
62%
model leanTai Tuivasa

62% model win probability for the current lean, but guarded by volatility or weak-regime caveats

Official result: Robelis Despaigne
Decision - Split • R3 • 5:00
why the model leans this way

Tai Tuivasa projects ahead on current measurable form and matchup profile. Tai Tuivasa holds the clearer activity edge. Tai Tuivasa has the stronger proven sample in this division. Division-transition caution: Proxy-stat sample coverage is only moderate for this matchup.

  • Tai Tuivasa shows the clearer activity edge
Risk flags
  • Robelis Despaigne long layoff
Uncertainty / caveats
  • Proxy-stat sample coverage is only moderate for this matchup
  • Probability is adjusted against historical outcome bins; no live track record has been published yet.
09Featherweight
guarded
Fighter A
Michael Aswell Jr.
Winner
lean
Div #80P4P #59236M 2-4-0
Win vs JooSang Yoo • Decision - Split • Sep 19, 2026
vs
Fighter B
JooSang Yoo
Div #87P4P #65736M 1-2-0
Loss vs Michael Aswell Jr. • Decision - Split • Sep 19, 2026
2-fight losing streak
66%
34%
model leanMichael Aswell Jr.

66% model win probability for the current lean, but guarded by volatility or weak-regime caveats

Official result: Michael Aswell Jr.
Decision - Split • R3 • 5:00
why the model leans this way

Michael Aswell Jr. projects ahead on current measurable form and matchup profile. holds the clearer activity edge. has the stronger proven sample in this division. has the clearer incumbency edge in this division. has shown more recent division stability. Division-transition caution: JooSang Yoo is only in a second fight in this division; At least one fighter has thin recent sample coverage behind the proxy stats.

  • Michael Aswell Jr. shows the clearer activity edge
Risk flags
  • Both fighters carry high finish volatility
Uncertainty / caveats
  • High-volatility matchup: finish variance is elevated and certainty should be discounted.
  • JooSang Yoo is only in a second fight in this division
  • At least one fighter has thin recent sample coverage behind the proxy stats
  • The matchup has uneven recent sample coverage between the fighters
  • Probability is adjusted against historical outcome bins; no live track record has been published yet.
10Middleweight
guarded
Fighter A
Ozzy Diaz
Div #74P4P #64936M 1-3-0
Loss vs Ryan Gandra • KO/TKO • Sep 19, 2026
2-fight losing streak
vs
Fighter B
Ryan Gandra
Winner
lean
Div #37P4P #28236M 4-0-0
Win vs Ozzy Diaz • KO/TKO • Sep 19, 2026
4-fight win streak
34%
66%
model leanRyan Gandra

66% model win probability for the current lean, but guarded by volatility or weak-regime caveats

Official result: Ryan Gandra
KO/TKO • R1 • 2:04
why the model leans this way

Ryan Gandra projects ahead on current measurable form and matchup profile. Ryan Gandra holds the clearer form edge. Ryan Gandra holds the clearer striking edge. Ryan Gandra has shown more recent division stability. Division-transition caution: Proxy-stat sample coverage is only moderate for this matchup.

  • Ryan Gandra shows the clearer form edge
  • Ryan Gandra shows the clearer striking edge
Risk flags
  • Both fighters carry high finish volatility
Uncertainty / caveats
  • High-volatility matchup: finish variance is elevated and certainty should be discounted.
  • Proxy-stat sample coverage is only moderate for this matchup
  • Probability is adjusted against historical outcome bins; no live track record has been published yet.
11Middleweight
guarded
Fighter A
Brunno Ferreira
Div #20P4P #17136M 5-4-0
Loss vs Edmen Shahbazyan • U-DEC • Sep 19, 2026
3-fight losing streak
vs
Fighter B
Edmen Shahbazyan
Winner
lean
Div #16P4P #11636M 5-2-0
Win vs Brunno Ferreira • U-DEC • Sep 19, 2026
38%
62%
model leanEdmen Shahbazyan

62% model win probability for the current lean, but guarded by volatility or weak-regime caveats

Official result: Edmen Shahbazyan
U-DEC • R3 • 5:00
why the model leans this way

Edmen Shahbazyan projects ahead on current measurable form and matchup profile. Edmen Shahbazyan has the stronger proven sample in this division.

Risk flags
  • Both fighters carry high finish volatility
Uncertainty / caveats
  • High-volatility matchup: finish variance is elevated and certainty should be discounted.
  • Probability is adjusted against historical outcome bins; no live track record has been published yet.
12Women's Flyweight
guarded
Fighter A
Casey O'Neill
Winner
lean
Div #11P4P #21936M 3-1-0
Win vs Eduarda Moura • Submission • Sep 19, 2026
3-fight win streak
vs
Fighter B
Eduarda Moura
Div #20P4P #35636M 3-3-0
Loss vs Casey O'Neill • Submission • Sep 19, 2026
2-fight losing streak
66%
34%
model leanCasey O'Neill

66% model win probability for the current lean, but guarded by volatility or weak-regime caveats

Official result: Casey O'Neill
Submission • R1 • 3:22
why the model leans this way

Casey O'Neill projects ahead on current measurable form and matchup profile. Casey O'Neill has the stronger proven sample in this division. Casey O'Neill has shown more recent division stability. Division-transition caution: Proxy-stat sample coverage is only moderate for this matchup.

Risk flags
  • Both fighters carry high finish volatility
Uncertainty / caveats
  • High-volatility matchup: finish variance is elevated and certainty should be discounted.
  • Proxy-stat sample coverage is only moderate for this matchup
  • Probability is adjusted against historical outcome bins; no live track record has been published yet.
13Featherweight
low
Fighter A
Joanderson Brito
Winner
Div #14P4P #10236M 5-2-0
Win vs Giga Chikadze • KO/TKO • Sep 19, 2026
3-fight win streak
vs
Fighter B
Giga Chikadze
lean
Div #52P4P #40036M 0-4-0
Loss vs Joanderson Brito • KO/TKO • Sep 19, 2026
4-fight losing streak
49%
51%
model leanGiga Chikadze

51% model win probability for the current lean

Official result: Joanderson Brito
KO/TKO • R1 • 1:57
why the model leans this way

Giga Chikadze projects ahead on current measurable form and matchup profile. Giga Chikadze has the stronger proven sample in this division.

Uncertainty / caveats
  • Probability is adjusted against historical outcome bins; no live track record has been published yet.