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Event· Oct 24, 2026

UFC 333: Volkanovski vs. Evloev

The fight card and the model read for every bout, together. Each read shows the probability split, the reasons behind the lean, and the caveats that matter. The model is early-stage and no live track record has been published yet.

Abu Dhabi, Abu Dhabi, United Arab EmiratesUpcoming eventPartial slate live11 of 12 bouts with a model read1 without a read (UFC debut)Published Sep 29, 2026 · 24d before the card
Receipt
Read first published
Sep 29, 2026
Lead time
24 days before the card
Read last refreshed
Oct 16, 2026
Card last checked
Oct 15, 2026, 11:03 AM UTC
Card vs read
In sync

Shown unedited since first publication. The date above is the first publication, not the refresh.

Bouts
12
Model reads
11
Partial slate live
Toss-ups
0
Within half a point of 50/50
Guarded
2
Volatility or weak-regime caveat
Partial governed prediction coverage
11 of 12 bouts currently have governed model outputs. 1 bout still render as unavailable until refresh completes.
01Featherweight TitleTitle fight
medium
Fighter A
Movsar Evloev
lean
Div #1P4P #436M 3-0-0
Win vs Lerone Murphy • M-DEC • Mar 21, 2026
10-fight win streak
vs
Fighter B
Alexander Volkanovski
Div #2P4P #2136M 2-2-0
Win vs Diego Lopes • U-DEC • Jan 31, 2026
2-fight win streak
64%
36%
model leanMovsar Evloev

64% model win probability for the current lean

Read published Oct 16, 2026 · revision 3
  • Earlier read (rev 1, Sep 29, 2026): Movsar Evloev 64% vs Alexander Volkanovski 36%; superseded Oct 9, 2026 because the model re-ran.
  • Earlier read (rev 2, Oct 9, 2026): Movsar Evloev 64% vs Alexander Volkanovski 36%; superseded Oct 16, 2026 because the model re-ran.
why the model leans this way

Movsar Evloev projects ahead at 64.3%.

  • Movsar Evloev has the edge on age
  • Movsar Evloev has the edge on wrestling offense
  • Movsar Evloev has the edge on age in the lighter divisions
Uncertainty / caveats
  • Winner-only read: this model does not call the method, the round, or whether the fight goes the distance.
02Bantamweight TitleTitle fight
high
Fighter A
Merab Dvalishvili
lean
Div #1P4P #336M 5-1-0
Loss vs Petr Yan • U-DEC • Dec 6, 2025
vs
Fighter B
Petr Yan
Div #2P4P #1236M 4-0-0
Win vs Merab Dvalishvili • U-DEC • Dec 6, 2025
4-fight win streak
66%
34%
model leanMerab Dvalishvili

66% model win probability for the current lean

Read published Oct 16, 2026 · revision 3
  • Earlier read (rev 1, Sep 29, 2026): Merab Dvalishvili 66% vs Petr Yan 34%; superseded Oct 9, 2026 because the model re-ran.
  • Earlier read (rev 2, Oct 9, 2026): Merab Dvalishvili 66% vs Petr Yan 34%; superseded Oct 16, 2026 because the model re-ran.
why the model leans this way

Merab Dvalishvili projects ahead at 65.9%.

  • Merab Dvalishvili has the edge on wrestling offense
  • Merab Dvalishvili has the edge on takedown volume
  • Merab Dvalishvili has the edge on strikes absorbed per minute
Uncertainty / caveats
  • Winner-only read: this model does not call the method, the round, or whether the fight goes the distance.
  • Incomplete inputs: 1 of 56 measured comparisons were unavailable for this matchup, so the read rests on fewer signals than a fully covered bout.
03Flyweight
locked
Lone'er Kavanagh
Div #17P4P #26936M 4-2-0
Loss vs Brandon Royval • SUB • Jul 11, 2026
vs
Ramazan Temirov
Div #10P4P #16436M 3-0-0
Win vs Steve Erceg • KO/TKO • Jul 25, 2026
3-fight win streak
Model probabilities hiddenGet all picks free
04Heavyweight
locked
Alexander Volkov
Div #3P4P #2836M 3-1-0
Win vs Waldo Cortes Acosta • U-DEC • May 9, 2026
2-fight win streak
vs
Rizvan Kuniev
Div #11P4P #11536M 3-1-0
Win vs Tyrell Fortune • KO/TKO • Jul 25, 2026
2-fight win streak
Model probabilities hiddenGet all picks free
05Featherweight
locked
Aaron Pico
Div #58P4P #43336M 1-1-0
Win vs Patricio Pitbull • U-DEC • Apr 11, 2026
vs
Arnold Allen
Div #10P4P #8536M 2-2-0
Win vs Melquizael Costa • U-DEC • May 16, 2026
Model probabilities hiddenGet all picks free
06Featherweight
locked
Aaron Pico
Div #58P4P #43336M 1-1-0
Win vs Patricio Pitbull • U-DEC • Apr 11, 2026
vs
Losene Keita
Div #60P4P #45936M 1-1-0
Win vs Muhammad Naimov • KO/TKO • Sep 5, 2026
Model probabilities hiddenGet all picks free
07Light Heavyweight
locked
Azamat Murzakanov
Div #10P4P #11236M 3-1-0
Loss vs Paulo Costa • KO/TKO • Apr 11, 2026
vs
Dominick Reyes
Div #6P4P #5736M 4-1-0
Win vs Johnny Walker • S-DEC • Apr 11, 2026
Model probabilities hiddenGet all picks free
08Light Heavyweight
locked
Abdul Rakhman Yakhyaev
Div #20P4P #27836M 4-0-0
Win vs Julius Walker • KO/TKO • Jun 27, 2026
4-fight win streak
vs
Nikita Krylov
Div #17P4P #25236M 1-3-0
Loss vs Robert Whittaker • KO/TKO • Jul 11, 2026
Model probabilities hiddenGet all picks free
09Middleweight
locked
Abus Magomedov
Div #17P4P #12436M 4-2-0
Win vs Michal Oleksiejczuk • SUB • Jun 27, 2026
vs
Cam Rowston
Div #30P4P #21836M 4-1-0
Win vs Robert Bryczek • U-DEC • May 2, 2026
4-fight win streak
Model probabilities hiddenGet all picks free
10Lightweight
locked
Grant Dawson
Div #9P4P #7236M 4-1-0
Win vs Mateusz Rebecki • SUB • May 9, 2026
vs
Nurullo Aliev
Div #19P4P #14736M 3-0-0
Win vs Mike Davis • U-DEC • Jul 25, 2026
5-fight win streak
Model probabilities hiddenGet all picks free
11Bantamweight
no read
Asaf Chopurov
vs
Colby Thicknesse
Div #62P4P #52836M 2-1-0
Win vs Vince Morales • U-DEC • May 2, 2026
2-fight win streak
No read on this bout

Asaf Chopurov has no UFC history. FightIndex does not predict a debut on no data, so the record only carries reads that had evidence behind them.

12Middleweight
locked
Abubakar Vagaev
Div #67P4P #53836M 1-0-0
Win vs Saygid Izagakhmaev • U-DEC • Jul 25, 2026
vs
Jacob Malkoun
Div #19P4P #15736M 3-0-0
Win vs Gerald Meerschaert • U-DEC • May 2, 2026
3-fight win streak
Model probabilities hiddenGet all picks free
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9 more bouts on this card

The full slate, with model probabilities, confidence, and the reasoning behind each lean, is published here by Friday for Saturday cards and goes out by email before the card.

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