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Event· Oct 10, 2026

UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Duncan

The fight card and the model read for every bout, together. Each read shows the probability split, the reasons behind the lean, and the caveats that matter. The model is early-stage and no live track record has been published yet.

Las Vegas, Nevada, USACompleted eventFull slate live12 of 12 bouts with a model readPublished Sep 29, 2026 · 10d before the card
Receipt
Read first published
Sep 29, 2026
Lead time
10 days before the card
Read last refreshed
Oct 2, 2026
Card last checked
Oct 18, 2026, 10:02 AM UTC
Card vs read
In sync

Shown unedited since first publication. The date above is the first publication, not the refresh.

Bouts
12
Model reads
12
Full slate live
Toss-ups
0
Within half a point of 50/50
Completed
12
Official results recorded
Scored receipt
Model 5 of 11

Every bout with a published read, scored against the official result. One card is a small sample; the running record is what counts.

BoutModelWinner
Brendan Allen vs Christian Leroy DuncanChristian Leroy Duncan55%WrongBrendan Allen
Jai Herbert vs Matheus CamiloMatheus Camilo72%WrongJai Herbert
Ketlen Souza vs Loopy GodinezLoopy Godinez58%RightLoopy Godinez
Andre Fili vs Kai Kamaka IIIAndre Fili51%RightAndre Fili
Malcolm Wellmaker vs Otari TanziloviMalcolm Wellmaker51%WrongOtari Tanzilovi
Gerald Meerschaert vs Julius WalkerJulius Walker60%RightJulius Walker
Francisco Prado vs Ismael BonfimIsmael Bonfim55%WrongFrancisco Prado
Leon Shahbazyan vs Niko PriceNiko Price56%RightNiko Price
Brendson Ribeiro vs Felipe FrancoFelipe Franco67%WrongBrendson Ribeiro
Allen Frye Jr. vs RJ HarrisRJ Harris64%WrongAllen Frye Jr.
Daria Zhelezniakova vs Alice PereiraAlice Pereira63%RightAlice Pereira
Melissa Gatto vs Ernesta KareckaiteMelissa Gatto54%No winner
01Middleweight
low
Fighter A
Brendan Allen
Winner
Div #4P4P #2036M 6-2-0
Win vs Christian Leroy Duncan • SUB • Oct 10, 2026
4-fight win streak
vs
Fighter B
Christian Leroy Duncan
lean
Div #9P4P #5636M 7-2-0
Loss vs Brendan Allen • SUB • Oct 10, 2026
45%
55%
model leanChristian Leroy Duncan

55% model win probability for the current lean

Read published Oct 9, 2026 · revision 2
  • Earlier read (rev 1, Sep 29, 2026): Brendan Allen 45% vs Christian Leroy Duncan 55%; superseded Oct 9, 2026 because the model re-ran.
Official result: Brendan Allen
SUB • R5 • 2:46
why the model leans this way

Christian Leroy Duncan projects ahead at 55.5%.

  • Christian Leroy Duncan has the edge on recent form
  • Christian Leroy Duncan has the edge on knockout losses on the record
  • Christian Leroy Duncan has the edge on reach
Uncertainty / caveats
  • Winner-only read: this model does not call the method, the round, or whether the fight goes the distance.
  • Incomplete inputs: 1 of 56 measured comparisons were unavailable for this matchup, so the read rests on fewer signals than a fully covered bout.
02Lightweight
high
Fighter A
Jai Herbert
Winner
Div #47P4P #29936M 3-1-0
Win vs Matheus Camilo • Decision - Unanimous • Oct 10, 2026
2-fight win streak
vs
Fighter B
Matheus Camilo
lean
Div #67P4P #46636M 2-2-0
Loss vs Jai Herbert • Decision - Unanimous • Oct 10, 2026
28%
72%
model leanMatheus Camilo

72% model win probability for the current lean

Read published Oct 9, 2026 · revision 2
  • Earlier read (rev 1, Sep 29, 2026): Jai Herbert 28% vs Matheus Camilo 72%; superseded Oct 9, 2026 because the model re-ran.
Official result: Jai Herbert
Decision - Unanimous • R3 • 5:00
why the model leans this way

Matheus Camilo projects ahead at 72.5%.

  • Matheus Camilo has the edge on age
  • Matheus Camilo has the edge on wrestling offense
  • Matheus Camilo has the edge on knockout losses on the record
Uncertainty / caveats
  • Winner-only read: this model does not call the method, the round, or whether the fight goes the distance.
  • Incomplete inputs: 1 of 56 measured comparisons were unavailable for this matchup, so the read rests on fewer signals than a fully covered bout.
03Women's Strawweight
medium
Fighter A
Ketlen Souza
Div #20P4P #35836M 4-3-0
Loss vs Loopy Godinez • U-DEC • Oct 10, 2026
vs
Fighter B
Loopy Godinez
Winner
lean
Div #7P4P #18736M 4-3-0
Win vs Ketlen Souza • U-DEC • Oct 10, 2026
42%
58%
model leanLoopy Godinez

58% model win probability for the current lean

Read published Sep 29, 2026
Official result: Loopy Godinez
U-DEC • R3 • 5:00
why the model leans this way

Loopy Godinez projects ahead at 57.7%.

  • Loopy Godinez has the edge on wrestling offense
  • Loopy Godinez has the edge on proven rating
  • Loopy Godinez has the edge on the head-to-head rating matchup
Uncertainty / caveats
  • Winner-only read: this model does not call the method, the round, or whether the fight goes the distance.
04Featherweight
low
Fighter A
Andre Fili
Winner
lean
Div #26P4P #22836M 4-4-0
Win vs Kai Kamaka III • KO/TKO • Oct 10, 2026
vs
Fighter B
Kai Kamaka III
Div #84P4P #63136M 1-2-0
Loss vs Andre Fili • KO/TKO • Oct 10, 2026
2-fight losing streak
51%
49%
model leanAndre Fili

51% model win probability for the current lean

Read published Oct 9, 2026 · revision 2
  • Earlier read (rev 1, Sep 29, 2026): Andre Fili 51% vs Kai Kamaka III 49%; superseded Oct 9, 2026 because the model re-ran.
Official result: Andre Fili
KO/TKO • R2 • 0:22
why the model leans this way

Andre Fili projects ahead at 50.5%.

  • Andre Fili has the edge on proven rating
  • Andre Fili has the edge on the head-to-head rating matchup
  • Andre Fili has the edge on overall rating
Uncertainty / caveats
  • Winner-only read: this model does not call the method, the round, or whether the fight goes the distance.
05Bantamweight
guarded
Fighter A
Malcolm Wellmaker
lean
Div #67P4P #56736M 3-3-0
Loss vs Otari Tanzilovi • KO/TKO • Oct 10, 2026
3-fight losing streak
vs
Fighter B
Otari Tanzilovi
Winner
Div #82P4P #66236M 1-2-0
Win vs Malcolm Wellmaker • KO/TKO • Oct 10, 2026
51%
49%
model leanMalcolm Wellmaker

51% model win probability for the current lean, but guarded by volatility or weak-regime caveats

Read published Oct 9, 2026 · revision 2
  • Earlier read (rev 1, Sep 29, 2026): Malcolm Wellmaker 51% vs Otari Tanzilovi 49%; superseded Oct 9, 2026 because the model re-ran.
Official result: Otari Tanzilovi
KO/TKO • R2 • 2:39
why the model leans this way

Malcolm Wellmaker projects ahead at 51.2%.

  • Malcolm Wellmaker has the edge on proven rating
  • Malcolm Wellmaker has the edge on the head-to-head rating matchup
  • Malcolm Wellmaker has the edge on overall rating
Risk flags
  • Otari Tanzilovi moving down in weight
Uncertainty / caveats
  • Winner-only read: this model does not call the method, the round, or whether the fight goes the distance.
  • Incomplete inputs: 4 of 56 measured comparisons were unavailable for this matchup, so the read rests on fewer signals than a fully covered bout.
06Light Heavyweight
guarded
Fighter A
Gerald Meerschaert
Div #31P4P #42036M 2-6-0
Loss vs Julius Walker • KO/TKO • Oct 10, 2026
6-fight losing streak
vs
Fighter B
Julius Walker
Winner
lean
Div #36P4P #48636M 2-3-0
Win vs Gerald Meerschaert • KO/TKO • Oct 10, 2026
40%
60%
model leanJulius Walker

60% model win probability for the current lean, but guarded by volatility or weak-regime caveats

Read published Oct 9, 2026 · revision 2
  • Earlier read (rev 1, Sep 29, 2026): Gerald Meerschaert 40% vs Julius Walker 60%; superseded Oct 9, 2026 because the model re-ran.
Official result: Julius Walker
KO/TKO • R2 • 3:35
why the model leans this way

Julius Walker projects ahead at 59.8%.

  • Julius Walker has the edge on age
  • Julius Walker has the edge on knockout losses on the record
  • Julius Walker has the edge on time established in this division
Risk flags
  • Gerald Meerschaert division debut
  • Gerald Meerschaert moving up in weight
Uncertainty / caveats
  • Winner-only read: this model does not call the method, the round, or whether the fight goes the distance.
  • Incomplete inputs: 2 of 56 measured comparisons were unavailable for this matchup, so the read rests on fewer signals than a fully covered bout.
07Lightweight
guarded
Fighter A
Francisco Prado
Winner
Div #89P4P #60236M 1-4-0
Win vs Ismael Bonfim • KO/TKO • Oct 10, 2026
vs
Fighter B
Ismael Bonfim
lean
Div #83P4P #55536M 1-4-0
Loss vs Francisco Prado • KO/TKO • Oct 10, 2026
4-fight losing streak
45%
55%
model leanIsmael Bonfim

55% model win probability for the current lean, but guarded by volatility or weak-regime caveats

Read published Oct 9, 2026 · revision 2
  • Earlier read (rev 1, Oct 2, 2026): Francisco Prado 45% vs Ismael Bonfim 55%; superseded Oct 9, 2026 because the model re-ran.
Official result: Francisco Prado
KO/TKO • R1 • 4:23
why the model leans this way

Ismael Bonfim projects ahead at 54.8%.

  • Ismael Bonfim has the edge on proven rating
  • Ismael Bonfim has the edge on the head-to-head rating matchup
  • Ismael Bonfim has the edge on overall rating
Risk flags
  • Francisco Prado moving down in weight
Uncertainty / caveats
  • Winner-only read: this model does not call the method, the round, or whether the fight goes the distance.
  • Incomplete inputs: 1 of 56 measured comparisons were unavailable for this matchup, so the read rests on fewer signals than a fully covered bout.
08Welterweight
guarded
Fighter A
Leon Shahbazyan
Div #94P4P #82736M 0-2-0
Loss vs Niko Price • KO/TKO • Oct 10, 2026
3-fight losing streak
vs
Fighter B
Niko Price
Winner
lean
Div #56P4P #43436M 2-4-0
Win vs Leon Shahbazyan • KO/TKO • Oct 10, 2026
44%
56%
model leanNiko Price

56% model win probability for the current lean, but guarded by volatility or weak-regime caveats

Read published Oct 9, 2026 · revision 2
  • Earlier read (rev 1, Oct 2, 2026): Leon Shahbazyan 44% vs Niko Price 56%; superseded Oct 9, 2026 because the model re-ran.
Official result: Niko Price
KO/TKO • R1 • 1:58
why the model leans this way

Niko Price projects ahead at 56.4%.

  • Niko Price has the edge on proven rating
  • Niko Price has the edge on the head-to-head rating matchup
  • Niko Price has the edge on overall rating
Risk flags
  • Leon Shahbazyan low recent sample
Uncertainty / caveats
  • Winner-only read: this model does not call the method, the round, or whether the fight goes the distance.
  • Incomplete inputs: 4 of 56 measured comparisons were unavailable for this matchup, so the read rests on fewer signals than a fully covered bout.
09Light Heavyweight
high
Fighter A
Brendson Ribeiro
Winner
Div #32P4P #42236M 3-6-0
Win vs Felipe Franco • Submission • Oct 10, 2026
vs
Fighter B
Felipe Franco
lean
Div #51P4P #67236M 1-3-0
Loss vs Brendson Ribeiro • Submission • Oct 10, 2026
33%
67%
model leanFelipe Franco

67% model win probability for the current lean

Read published Oct 9, 2026 · revision 2
  • Earlier read (rev 1, Oct 2, 2026): Brendson Ribeiro 33% vs Felipe Franco 67%; superseded Oct 9, 2026 because the model re-ran.
Official result: Brendson Ribeiro
Submission • R1 • 1:49
why the model leans this way

Felipe Franco projects ahead at 67.1%.

  • Felipe Franco has the edge on age
  • Felipe Franco has the edge on knockout losses on the record
  • Felipe Franco has the edge on wrestling offense
Uncertainty / caveats
  • Winner-only read: this model does not call the method, the round, or whether the fight goes the distance.
10Heavyweight
guarded
Fighter A
Allen Frye Jr.
Winner
Div #46P4P #62236M 1-1-0
Win vs RJ Harris • KO/TKO • Oct 10, 2026
vs
Fighter B
RJ Harris
lean
Div #51P4P #68036M 1-1-0
Loss vs Allen Frye Jr. • KO/TKO • Oct 10, 2026
36%
64%
model leanRJ Harris

64% model win probability for the current lean, but guarded by volatility or weak-regime caveats

Read published Oct 9, 2026 · revision 2
  • Earlier read (rev 1, Oct 2, 2026): Allen Frye Jr. 36% vs RJ Harris 64%; superseded Oct 9, 2026 because the model re-ran.
Official result: Allen Frye Jr.
KO/TKO • R1 • 2:59
why the model leans this way

RJ Harris projects ahead at 64.1%.

  • RJ Harris has the edge on proven rating
  • RJ Harris has the edge on damage absorbed
  • RJ Harris has the edge on overall rating
Risk flags
  • Allen Frye Jr. low recent sample
  • RJ Harris low recent sample
Uncertainty / caveats
  • Winner-only read: this model does not call the method, the round, or whether the fight goes the distance.
  • Incomplete inputs: 4 of 56 measured comparisons were unavailable for this matchup, so the read rests on fewer signals than a fully covered bout.
11Women's Bantamweight
medium
Fighter A
Daria Zhelezniakova
Div #22P4P #54636M 2-3-0
Loss vs Alice Pereira • KO/TKO • Oct 10, 2026
2-fight losing streak
vs
Fighter B
Alice Pereira
Winner
lean
Div #18P4P #48836M 2-1-0
Win vs Daria Zhelezniakova • KO/TKO • Oct 10, 2026
2-fight win streak
37%
63%
model leanAlice Pereira

63% model win probability for the current lean

Read published Oct 2, 2026
Official result: Alice Pereira
KO/TKO • R1 • 5:00
why the model leans this way

Alice Pereira projects ahead at 63.2%.

  • Alice Pereira has the edge on age
  • Alice Pereira has the edge on age in a women's division
  • Alice Pereira has the edge on finishing rate
Uncertainty / caveats
  • Winner-only read: this model does not call the method, the round, or whether the fight goes the distance.
12Women's Flyweight
low
Fighter A
Melissa Gatto
lean
Div #28P4P #56536M 1-1-1
Draw vs Ernesta Kareckaite • Decision - Majority • Oct 10, 2026
vs
Fighter B
Ernesta Kareckaite
Div #29P4P #58136M 1-2-1
Draw vs Melissa Gatto • Decision - Majority • Oct 10, 2026
54%
46%
model leanMelissa Gatto

54% model win probability for the current lean

Read published Oct 9, 2026 · revision 2
  • Earlier read (rev 1, Oct 2, 2026): Melissa Gatto 54% vs Ernesta Kareckaite 46%; superseded Oct 9, 2026 because the model re-ran.
Official result
Decision - Majority • R3 • 5:00
why the model leans this way

Melissa Gatto projects ahead at 54.1%.

  • Melissa Gatto has the edge on strikes absorbed per minute
  • Melissa Gatto has the edge on damage absorbed
  • Melissa Gatto has the edge on takedown volume
Uncertainty / caveats
  • Winner-only read: this model does not call the method, the round, or whether the fight goes the distance.