All events
Event· Nov 7, 2026

UFC Fight Night: Bonfim vs. Brady

The fight card and the model read for every bout, together. Each read shows the probability split, the reasons behind the lean, and the caveats that matter. The model is early-stage and no live track record has been published yet.

Las Vegas, Nevada, USAUpcoming eventFull slate live13 of 13 bouts with a model readPublished Sep 29, 2026 · 38d before the card
Receipt
Read first published
Sep 29, 2026
Lead time
38 days before the card
Read last refreshed
Oct 2, 2026
Card last checked
Sep 30, 2026, 11:03 AM UTC
Card vs read
In sync

Shown unedited since first publication. The date above is the first publication, not the refresh.

Bouts
13
Model reads
13
Full slate live
Toss-ups
0
Within half a point of 50/50
Guarded
7
Volatility or weak-regime caveat
01Welterweight
low
Fighter A
Gabriel Bonfim
lean
Div #7P4P #3536M 5-1-0
Win vs Belal Muhammad • U-DEC • Jun 6, 2026
5-fight win streak
vs
Fighter B
Sean Brady
Div #5P4P #2236M 4-1-0
Win vs Joaquin Buckley • U-DEC • May 9, 2026
53%
47%
model leanGabriel Bonfim

53% model win probability for the current lean

Read published Oct 16, 2026 · revision 3
  • Earlier read (rev 1, Sep 29, 2026): Gabriel Bonfim 53% vs Sean Brady 47%; superseded Oct 9, 2026 because the model re-ran.
  • Earlier read (rev 2, Oct 9, 2026): Gabriel Bonfim 53% vs Sean Brady 47%; superseded Oct 16, 2026 because the model re-ran.
why the model leans this way

Gabriel Bonfim projects ahead at 52.7%.

  • Gabriel Bonfim has the edge on age
  • Gabriel Bonfim has the edge on knockout losses on the record
  • Gabriel Bonfim has the edge on recent form
Uncertainty / caveats
  • Winner-only read: this model does not call the method, the round, or whether the fight goes the distance.
02Women's Strawweight
high
Fighter A
Virna Jandiroba
Div #2P4P #9636M 4-1-0
Win vs Tabatha Ricci • U-DEC • Apr 4, 2026
vs
Fighter B
Tatiana Suarez
lean
Div #1P4P #8736M 2-1-0
Win vs Loopy Godinez • SUB • Apr 11, 2026
2-fight win streak
34%
66%
model leanTatiana Suarez

66% model win probability for the current lean

Read published Oct 16, 2026 · revision 2
  • Earlier read (rev 1, Oct 2, 2026): Virna Jandiroba 34% vs Tatiana Suarez 66%; superseded Oct 16, 2026 because the model re-ran.
why the model leans this way

Tatiana Suarez projects ahead at 66.3%.

  • Tatiana Suarez has the edge on age
  • Tatiana Suarez has the edge on the stance matchup
  • Tatiana Suarez has the edge on the head-to-head rating matchup
Uncertainty / caveats
  • Winner-only read: this model does not call the method, the round, or whether the fight goes the distance.
03Bantamweight
locked
Davey Grant
Div #29P4P #24536M 3-1-0
Win vs Adrian Luna Martinetti • U-DEC • Apr 25, 2026
vs
Elijah Smith
Div #22P4P #18036M 4-0-0
Win vs SuYoung You • SUB • Mar 14, 2026
4-fight win streak
Model probabilities hiddenGet all picks free
04Welterweight
locked
Seokhyeon Ko
Div #38P4P #25336M 3-1-0
Loss vs Jean-Paul Lebosnoyani • U-DEC • Jul 18, 2026
vs
Wellington Turman
36M 0-1-0
Loss vs Jared Gooden • SUB • Dec 2, 2023
3-fight losing streak
Model probabilities hiddenGet all picks free
05Light Heavyweight
locked
Billy Elekana
Div #26P4P #34136M 3-1-0
Win vs Junior Tafa • SUB • Jan 31, 2026
3-fight win streak
vs
Lucas Fernando
Div #45P4P #59436M 1-0-0
Win vs Rafael Tobias • KO/TKO • Aug 15, 2026
Model probabilities hiddenGet all picks free
06Middleweight
locked
Mantas Kondratavicius
Div #56P4P #48036M 2-0-0
Win vs Antonio Trocoli • U-DEC • Mar 21, 2026
2-fight win streak
vs
Wes Schultz
Div #70P4P #60536M 2-3-0
Loss vs Jackson McVey • KO/TKO • Aug 22, 2026
Model probabilities hiddenGet all picks free
07Heavyweight
locked
Alvin Hines
Div #55P4P #73236M 0-2-0
Loss vs RJ Harris • KO/TKO • Jul 18, 2026
2-fight losing streak
vs
Gabriel Lorenco
Div #40P4P #51336M 1-0-0
Win vs Charlie Cleveland • KO/TKO • Sep 1, 2026
Model probabilities hiddenGet all picks free
08Women's Flyweight
locked
Gabriella Fernandes
Div #24P4P #45036M 3-1-0
Loss vs Casey O'Neill • KO/TKO • Mar 28, 2026
vs
Karine Silva
Div #17P4P #30936M 2-3-0
Loss vs Jasmine Jasudavicius • U-DEC • Apr 18, 2026
2-fight losing streak
Model probabilities hiddenGet all picks free
09Featherweight
locked
Jose Delano
Div #56P4P #42836M 2-0-0
Win vs Robert Ruchala • U-DEC • Apr 4, 2026
2-fight win streak
vs
Murtazali Magomedov
Div #40P4P #32636M 2-0-0
Win vs Melsik Baghdasaryan • SUB • Jun 20, 2026
2-fight win streak
Model probabilities hiddenGet all picks free
10Featherweight
locked
Keiichiro Nakamura
Div #21P4P #19336M 3-0-0
Win vs Sebastian Szalay • KO/TKO • Jan 31, 2026
3-fight win streak
vs
Ollie Schmid
Div #98P4P #71836M 0-1-0
Loss vs Marwan Rahiki • KO/TKO • May 2, 2026
Model probabilities hiddenGet all picks free
11Featherweight
locked
Austin Bashi
Div #64P4P #49236M 2-2-0
Loss vs Jose Delgado • U-DEC • Jul 18, 2026
vs
Lucas Brennan
Div #107P4P #74336M 0-1-0
Loss vs Francis Marshall • U-DEC • Apr 25, 2026
Model probabilities hiddenGet all picks free
12Women's Bantamweight
locked
Nina Milosevic
Div #23P4P #58536M 1-0-0
Win vs Hailey Cowan • KO/TKO • Aug 1, 2026
vs
Priscila Cachoeira
Div #25P4P #60736M 1-4-0
Loss vs Chelsea Chandler • SUB • Jun 6, 2026
3-fight losing streak
Model probabilities hiddenGet all picks free
13Welterweight
locked
Jonny Parsons
Win vs Danny Roberts • KO/TKO • Jul 22, 2023
2-fight win streak
vs
Jose Souza
Div #73P4P #62836M 1-0-0
Win vs Ding Meng • S-DEC • May 30, 2026
Model probabilities hiddenGet all picks free
Free by email
11 more bouts on this card

The full slate, with model probabilities, confidence, and the reasoning behind each lean, is published here by Friday for Saturday cards and goes out by email before the card.

Get all picks free