All events
Event· Oct 17, 2026

UFC Fight Night: Buckley vs. Malott

The fight card and the model read for every bout, together. Each read shows the probability split, the reasons behind the lean, and the caveats that matter. The model is early-stage and no live track record has been published yet.

Edmonton, Alberta, CanadaCompleted eventPartial slate live13 of 16 bouts with a model read3 without a read (UFC debut)Published Sep 29, 2026 · 17d before the card
Receipt
Read first published
Sep 29, 2026
Lead time
17 days before the card
Read last refreshed
Oct 16, 2026
Card last checked
Oct 18, 2026, 10:01 AM UTC
Card vs read
In sync

Shown unedited since first publication. The date above is the first publication, not the refresh.

Bouts
16
Model reads
13
Partial slate live
Toss-ups
1
Within half a point of 50/50
Completed
13
Official results recorded
Scored receipt
Model 6 of 11

Every bout with a published read, scored against the official result. One card is a small sample; the running record is what counts.

BoutModelWinner
Joaquin Buckley vs Mike MalottJoaquin Buckley52%WrongMike Malott
Erin Blanchfield vs Jasmine JasudaviciusErin Blanchfield70%WrongJasmine Jasudavicius
Kyle Nelson vs Cristian PerezCristian Perez55%RightCristian Perez
Marc-Andre Barriault vs Kyle DaukausKyle Daukaus70%WrongMarc-Andre Barriault
Timmy Cuamba vs Louis JourdainTimmy Cuamba52%RightTimmy Cuamba
Nate Landwehr vs Mandel NalloMandel Nallo53%RightMandel Nallo
Tanner Boser vs Jhonata DinizJhonata Diniz57%WrongTanner Boser
Nick Galanti vs Julien LeblancNick Galanti81%RightNick Galanti
Steven Koslow vs Chad AnheligerSteven Koslow56%RightSteven Koslow
Melissa Croden vs Chelsea ChandlerMelissa Croden67%WrongChelsea Chandler
Cody Chovancek vs SuYoung YouSuYoung You74%RightSuYoung You
Partial governed prediction coverage
13 of 16 bouts currently have governed model outputs. 3 bouts still render as unavailable until refresh completes.
01Welterweight
low
Fighter A
Joaquin Buckley
lean
Div #11P4P #6536M 4-3-0
Loss vs Mike Malott • KO/TKO • Oct 17, 2026
3-fight losing streak
vs
Fighter B
Mike Malott
Winner
Div #8P4P #4136M 5-1-0
Win vs Joaquin Buckley • KO/TKO • Oct 17, 2026
5-fight win streak
52%
48%
model leanJoaquin Buckley

52% model win probability for the current lean

Read published Oct 16, 2026 · revision 3
  • Earlier read (rev 1, Sep 29, 2026): Joaquin Buckley 52% vs Mike Malott 48%; superseded Oct 9, 2026 because the model re-ran.
  • Earlier read (rev 2, Oct 9, 2026): Joaquin Buckley 52% vs Mike Malott 48%; superseded Oct 16, 2026 because the model re-ran.
Official result: Mike Malott
KO/TKO • R2 • 2:32
why the model leans this way

Joaquin Buckley projects ahead at 52.0%.

  • Joaquin Buckley has the edge on age
  • Joaquin Buckley has the edge on the stance matchup
  • Joaquin Buckley has the edge on reach
Uncertainty / caveats
  • Winner-only read: this model does not call the method, the round, or whether the fight goes the distance.
02Women's Flyweight
high
Fighter A
Erin Blanchfield
lean
Div #8P4P #11036M 2-2-0
Loss vs Jasmine Jasudavicius • U-DEC • Oct 17, 2026
vs
Fighter B
Jasmine Jasudavicius
Winner
Div #3P4P #4936M 7-1-0
Win vs Erin Blanchfield • U-DEC • Oct 17, 2026
2-fight win streak
70%
30%
model leanErin Blanchfield

70% model win probability for the current lean

Read published Oct 16, 2026 · revision 3
  • Earlier read (rev 1, Sep 29, 2026): Erin Blanchfield 70% vs Jasmine Jasudavicius 30%; superseded Oct 9, 2026 because the model re-ran.
  • Earlier read (rev 2, Oct 9, 2026): Erin Blanchfield 70% vs Jasmine Jasudavicius 30%; superseded Oct 16, 2026 because the model re-ran.
Official result: Jasmine Jasudavicius
U-DEC • R3 • 5:00
why the model leans this way

Erin Blanchfield projects ahead at 69.7%.

  • Erin Blanchfield has the edge on age
  • Erin Blanchfield has the edge on the head-to-head rating matchup
  • Erin Blanchfield has the edge on proven rating
Uncertainty / caveats
  • Winner-only read: this model does not call the method, the round, or whether the fight goes the distance.
03Lightweight
low
Fighter A
Kyle Nelson
Div #55P4P #40136M 2-3-0
Loss vs Cristian Perez • KO/TKO • Oct 17, 2026
2-fight losing streak
vs
Fighter B
Cristian Perez
Winner
lean
Div #65P4P #44936M 2-1-0
Win vs Kyle Nelson • KO/TKO • Oct 17, 2026
2-fight win streak
45%
55%
model leanCristian Perez

55% model win probability for the current lean

Read published Oct 16, 2026 · revision 3
  • Earlier read (rev 1, Sep 29, 2026): Kyle Nelson 45% vs Cristian Perez 55%; superseded Oct 9, 2026 because the model re-ran.
  • Earlier read (rev 2, Oct 9, 2026): Kyle Nelson 45% vs Cristian Perez 55%; superseded Oct 16, 2026 because the model re-ran.
Official result: Cristian Perez
KO/TKO • R1 • 0:27
why the model leans this way

Cristian Perez projects ahead at 54.7%.

  • Cristian Perez has the edge on age
  • Cristian Perez has the edge on knockout losses on the record
Uncertainty / caveats
  • Winner-only read: this model does not call the method, the round, or whether the fight goes the distance.
  • Incomplete inputs: 2 of 56 measured comparisons were unavailable for this matchup, so the read rests on fewer signals than a fully covered bout.
04Middleweight
guarded
Fighter A
Marc-Andre Barriault
Winner
Div #43P4P #36336M 2-5-0
Win vs Kyle Daukaus • KO/TKO • Oct 17, 2026
vs
Fighter B
Kyle Daukaus
lean
Div #46P4P #36836M 2-2-0
Loss vs Marc-Andre Barriault • KO/TKO • Oct 17, 2026
2-fight losing streak
30%
70%
model leanKyle Daukaus

70% model win probability for the current lean, but guarded by volatility or weak-regime caveats

Read published Oct 16, 2026 · revision 3
  • Earlier read (rev 1, Sep 29, 2026): Marc-Andre Barriault 30% vs Kyle Daukaus 70%; superseded Oct 9, 2026 because the model re-ran.
  • Earlier read (rev 2, Oct 9, 2026): Marc-Andre Barriault 30% vs Kyle Daukaus 70%; superseded Oct 16, 2026 because the model re-ran.
Official result: Marc-Andre Barriault
KO/TKO • R1 • 4:28
why the model leans this way

Kyle Daukaus projects ahead at 69.7%.

  • Kyle Daukaus has the edge on strikes absorbed per minute
  • Kyle Daukaus has the edge on age
  • Kyle Daukaus has the edge on the head-to-head rating matchup
Risk flags
  • Both fighters carry high finish volatility
Uncertainty / caveats
  • Winner-only read: this model does not call the method, the round, or whether the fight goes the distance.
05Bantamweight
guarded
Fighter A
Timmy Cuamba
Winner
lean
Div #45P4P #39636M 3-3-0
Win vs Louis Jourdain • SUB • Oct 17, 2026
vs
Fighter B
Louis Jourdain
Div #79P4P #65236M 1-1-0
Loss vs Timmy Cuamba • SUB • Oct 17, 2026
52%
48%
model leanTimmy Cuamba

52% model win probability for the current lean, but guarded by volatility or weak-regime caveats

Read published Oct 16, 2026 · revision 3
  • Earlier read (rev 1, Sep 29, 2026): Timmy Cuamba 52% vs Louis Jourdain 48%; superseded Oct 9, 2026 because the model re-ran.
  • Earlier read (rev 2, Oct 9, 2026): Timmy Cuamba 52% vs Louis Jourdain 48%; superseded Oct 16, 2026 because the model re-ran.
Official result: Timmy Cuamba
SUB • R2 • 2:48
why the model leans this way

Timmy Cuamba projects ahead at 52.3%.

  • Timmy Cuamba has the edge on division moves over the last three years
  • Timmy Cuamba has the edge on win rate over the last three years
  • Timmy Cuamba has the edge on age
Risk flags
  • Louis Jourdain long layoff
  • Louis Jourdain low recent sample
Uncertainty / caveats
  • Winner-only read: this model does not call the method, the round, or whether the fight goes the distance.
  • Incomplete inputs: 1 of 56 measured comparisons were unavailable for this matchup, so the read rests on fewer signals than a fully covered bout.
06Lightweight
guarded
Fighter A
Nate Landwehr
Div #78P4P #53736M 1-4-0
Loss vs Mandel Nallo • KO/TKO • Oct 17, 2026
4-fight losing streak
vs
Fighter B
Mandel Nallo
Winner
lean
Div #68P4P #47136M 2-1-0
Win vs Nate Landwehr • KO/TKO • Oct 17, 2026
47%
53%
model leanMandel Nallo

53% model win probability for the current lean, but guarded by volatility or weak-regime caveats

Read published Oct 16, 2026 · revision 3
  • Earlier read (rev 1, Sep 29, 2026): Nate Landwehr 47% vs Mandel Nallo 53%; superseded Oct 9, 2026 because the model re-ran.
  • Earlier read (rev 2, Oct 9, 2026): Nate Landwehr 47% vs Mandel Nallo 53%; superseded Oct 16, 2026 because the model re-ran.
Official result: Mandel Nallo
KO/TKO • R2 • 0:47
why the model leans this way

Mandel Nallo projects ahead at 53.5%.

  • Mandel Nallo has the edge on knockout losses on the record
  • Mandel Nallo has the edge on damage absorbed
  • Mandel Nallo has the edge on time established in this division
Risk flags
  • Both fighters carry high finish volatility
  • Nate Landwehr division debut
  • Nate Landwehr moving up in weight
Uncertainty / caveats
  • Winner-only read: this model does not call the method, the round, or whether the fight goes the distance.
  • Incomplete inputs: 2 of 56 measured comparisons were unavailable for this matchup, so the read rests on fewer signals than a fully covered bout.
07Heavyweight
guarded
Fighter A
Tanner Boser
Winner
Div #37P4P #47036M 1-1-0
Win vs Jhonata Diniz • KO/TKO • Oct 17, 2026
vs
Fighter B
Jhonata Diniz
lean
Div #30P4P #39336M 3-3-0
Loss vs Tanner Boser • KO/TKO • Oct 17, 2026
2-fight losing streak
43%
57%
model leanJhonata Diniz

57% model win probability for the current lean, but guarded by volatility or weak-regime caveats

Read published Oct 16, 2026 · revision 3
  • Earlier read (rev 1, Sep 29, 2026): Tanner Boser 43% vs Jhonata Diniz 57%; superseded Oct 9, 2026 because the model re-ran.
  • Earlier read (rev 2, Oct 9, 2026): Tanner Boser 43% vs Jhonata Diniz 57%; superseded Oct 16, 2026 because the model re-ran.
Official result: Tanner Boser
KO/TKO • R3 • 4:26
why the model leans this way

Jhonata Diniz projects ahead at 57.1%.

  • Jhonata Diniz has the edge on the head-to-head rating matchup
  • Jhonata Diniz has the edge on proven rating
  • Jhonata Diniz has the edge on overall rating
Risk flags
  • Jhonata Diniz long layoff
  • Tanner Boser low recent sample
Uncertainty / caveats
  • Winner-only read: this model does not call the method, the round, or whether the fight goes the distance.
  • Incomplete inputs: 1 of 56 measured comparisons were unavailable for this matchup, so the read rests on fewer signals than a fully covered bout.
08Middleweight
guarded
Fighter A
Gilbert Urbina
lean
Div #72P4P #61436M 1-2-0
Win vs Vlasto Cepo • KO/TKO • Aug 1, 2026
vs
Fighter B
Julien Leblanc
Div #94P4P #83336M 0-2-0
Loss vs Nick Galanti • SUB • Oct 17, 2026
2-fight losing streak
72%
28%
model leanGilbert Urbina

72% model win probability for the current lean, but guarded by volatility or weak-regime caveats

Read published Oct 16, 2026 · revision 3
  • Earlier read (rev 1, Sep 29, 2026): Gilbert Urbina 72% vs Julien Leblanc 28%; superseded Oct 9, 2026 because the model re-ran.
  • Earlier read (rev 2, Oct 9, 2026): Gilbert Urbina 72% vs Julien Leblanc 28%; superseded Oct 16, 2026 because the model re-ran.
why the model leans this way

Gilbert Urbina projects ahead at 72.3%.

  • Gilbert Urbina has the edge on proven rating
  • Gilbert Urbina has the edge on age
  • Gilbert Urbina has the edge on time spent under control
Risk flags
  • Julien Leblanc low recent sample
Uncertainty / caveats
  • Winner-only read: this model does not call the method, the round, or whether the fight goes the distance.
  • Incomplete inputs: 2 of 56 measured comparisons were unavailable for this matchup, so the read rests on fewer signals than a fully covered bout.
09Middleweight
guarded
Fighter A
Nick Galanti
Winner
lean
Div #55P4P #47636M 2-0-0
Win vs Julien Leblanc • SUB • Oct 17, 2026
2-fight win streak
vs
Fighter B
Julien Leblanc
Div #94P4P #83336M 0-2-0
Loss vs Nick Galanti • SUB • Oct 17, 2026
2-fight losing streak
81%
19%
model leanNick Galanti

81% model win probability for the current lean, but guarded by volatility or weak-regime caveats

Read published Oct 16, 2026
Official result: Nick Galanti
SUB • R1 • 1:26
why the model leans this way

Nick Galanti projects ahead at 81.3%.

  • Nick Galanti has the edge on takedown volume
  • Nick Galanti has the edge on age
  • Nick Galanti has the edge on proven rating
Risk flags
  • Nick Galanti low recent sample
  • Julien Leblanc low recent sample
Uncertainty / caveats
  • Winner-only read: this model does not call the method, the round, or whether the fight goes the distance.
  • Incomplete inputs: 4 of 56 measured comparisons were unavailable for this matchup, so the read rests on fewer signals than a fully covered bout.
10Women's Flyweight
guarded
Fighter A
Jamey-Lyn Horth
even
Div #23P4P #41036M 3-3-0
Loss vs JJ Aldrich • U-DEC • Apr 18, 2026
vs
Fighter B
Katlyn Cerminara
even
Div #16P4P #30736M 1-1-0
Win vs Mackenzie Stiller • KO/TKO • Oct 17, 2026
50%
50%
model readToss-up

Even 50/50 model read, no lean on this bout, but guarded by volatility or weak-regime caveats

Read published Oct 16, 2026 · revision 3
  • Earlier read (rev 1, Sep 29, 2026): Jamey-Lyn Horth 50% vs Katlyn Cerminara 50%; superseded Oct 9, 2026 because the model re-ran.
  • Earlier read (rev 2, Oct 9, 2026): Jamey-Lyn Horth 50% vs Katlyn Cerminara 50%; superseded Oct 16, 2026 because the model re-ran.
what the model sees

The model splits this bout evenly between Jamey-Lyn Horth and Katlyn Cerminara. Neither fighter projects ahead on the measured dimensions, so there is no lean to justify.

Risk flags
  • Katlyn Cerminara long layoff
  • Katlyn Cerminara low recent sample
Uncertainty / caveats
  • Winner-only read: this model does not call the method, the round, or whether the fight goes the distance.
  • Incomplete inputs: 1 of 56 measured comparisons were unavailable for this matchup, so the read rests on fewer signals than a fully covered bout.
11Heavyweight
no read
Javad Mahjoub
Div #57P4P #75136M 0-1-0
Loss vs Joel Faglier • KO/TKO • Oct 17, 2026
vs
Louie Sutherland
Div #45P4P #61936M 1-3-0
Loss vs Jose Montanha • SUB • Aug 8, 2026
No read on this bout

Javad Mahjoub has no UFC history. FightIndex does not predict a debut on no data, so the record only carries reads that had evidence behind them.

12Heavyweight
no read
Javad Mahjoub
Div #57P4P #75136M 0-1-0
Loss vs Joel Faglier • KO/TKO • Oct 17, 2026
vs
Joel Faglier
Winner
Div #39P4P #50536M 1-0-0
Win vs Javad Mahjoub • KO/TKO • Oct 17, 2026
Official result: Joel Faglier
KO/TKO • R2 • 2:11
No read on this bout

Javad Mahjoub has no UFC history. FightIndex does not predict a debut on no data, so the record only carries reads that had evidence behind them.

13Women's Flyweight
no read
Katlyn Cerminara
Winner
Div #16P4P #30736M 1-1-0
Win vs Mackenzie Stiller • KO/TKO • Oct 17, 2026
vs
Mackenzie Stiller
Div #33P4P #70036M 0-1-0
Loss vs Katlyn Cerminara • KO/TKO • Oct 17, 2026
Official result: Katlyn Cerminara
KO/TKO • R1 • 4:46
No read on this bout

Mackenzie Stiller has no UFC history. FightIndex does not predict a debut on no data, so the record only carries reads that had evidence behind them.

14Bantamweight
guarded
Fighter A
Steven Koslow
Winner
lean
Div #64P4P #54236M 1-0-0
Win vs Chad Anheliger • SUB • Oct 17, 2026
vs
Fighter B
Chad Anheliger
Div #85P4P #66936M 1-3-0
Loss vs Steven Koslow • SUB • Oct 17, 2026
2-fight losing streak
56%
44%
model leanSteven Koslow

56% model win probability for the current lean, but guarded by volatility or weak-regime caveats

Read published Oct 16, 2026 · revision 3
  • Earlier read (rev 1, Sep 29, 2026): Steven Koslow 56% vs Chad Anheliger 44%; superseded Oct 9, 2026 because the model re-ran.
  • Earlier read (rev 2, Oct 9, 2026): Steven Koslow 56% vs Chad Anheliger 44%; superseded Oct 16, 2026 because the model re-ran.
Official result: Steven Koslow
SUB • R3 • 4:31
why the model leans this way

Steven Koslow projects ahead at 56.1%.

  • Steven Koslow has the edge on age
  • Steven Koslow has the edge on age in the lighter divisions
  • Steven Koslow has the edge on wrestling offense
Risk flags
  • Steven Koslow long layoff
  • Chad Anheliger long layoff
  • Steven Koslow low recent sample
Uncertainty / caveats
  • Winner-only read: this model does not call the method, the round, or whether the fight goes the distance.
  • Incomplete inputs: 6 of 56 measured comparisons were unavailable for this matchup, so the read rests on fewer signals than a fully covered bout.
15Women's Bantamweight
high
Fighter A
Melissa Croden
lean
Div #16P4P #46836M 2-2-0
Loss vs Chelsea Chandler • SUB • Oct 17, 2026
vs
Fighter B
Chelsea Chandler
Winner
Div #14P4P #36136M 3-2-0
Win vs Melissa Croden • SUB • Oct 17, 2026
2-fight win streak
67%
33%
model leanMelissa Croden

67% model win probability for the current lean

Read published Oct 16, 2026 · revision 2
  • Earlier read (rev 1, Sep 29, 2026): Melissa Croden 67% vs Chelsea Chandler 33%; superseded Oct 16, 2026 because the model re-ran.
Official result: Chelsea Chandler
SUB • R1 • 4:52
why the model leans this way

Melissa Croden projects ahead at 66.7%.

  • Melissa Croden has the edge on striking defense
  • Melissa Croden has the edge on strikes absorbed per minute
  • Melissa Croden has the edge on striking offense
Uncertainty / caveats
  • Winner-only read: this model does not call the method, the round, or whether the fight goes the distance.
16Bantamweight
guarded
Fighter A
Cody Chovancek
Div #69P4P #59636M 1-1-0
Loss vs SuYoung You • SUB • Oct 17, 2026
vs
Fighter B
SuYoung You
Winner
lean
Div #20P4P #17336M 6-1-0
Win vs Cody Chovancek • SUB • Oct 17, 2026
26%
74%
model leanSuYoung You

74% model win probability for the current lean, but guarded by volatility or weak-regime caveats

Read published Oct 16, 2026 · revision 3
  • Earlier read (rev 1, Sep 29, 2026): Cody Chovancek 26% vs SuYoung You 74%; superseded Oct 9, 2026 because the model re-ran.
  • Earlier read (rev 2, Oct 9, 2026): Cody Chovancek 26% vs SuYoung You 74%; superseded Oct 16, 2026 because the model re-ran.
Official result: SuYoung You
SUB • R3 • 4:19
why the model leans this way

SuYoung You projects ahead at 73.6%.

  • SuYoung You has the edge on wrestling offense
  • SuYoung You has the edge on proven rating
  • SuYoung You has the edge on recent form
Risk flags
  • Cody Chovancek long layoff
  • Cody Chovancek low recent sample
Uncertainty / caveats
  • Winner-only read: this model does not call the method, the round, or whether the fight goes the distance.
  • Incomplete inputs: 2 of 56 measured comparisons were unavailable for this matchup, so the read rests on fewer signals than a fully covered bout.