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Event· Apr 18, 2026

UFC Fight Night: Burns vs. Malott

The fight card and the model read for every bout, together. Each read shows the probability split, the reasons behind the lean, and the caveats that matter. The model is early-stage and no live track record has been published yet.

Winnipeg, Manitoba, CanadaCompleted eventPartial slate live9 of 15 bouts with a model read1 without a read (UFC debut)Published Mar 26, 2026 · 22d before the card
Receipt
Read first published
Mar 26, 2026
Lead time
22 days before the card
Read last refreshed
Never
Card last checked
May 2, 2026, 10:02 AM UTC
Card vs read
In sync

Shown unedited since first publication.

Bouts
15
Model reads
9
Partial slate live
Toss-ups
0
Within half a point of 50/50
Completed
12
Official results recorded
Scored receipt
Model 4 of 6

Every bout with a published read, scored against the official result. One card is a small sample; the running record is what counts.

BoutModelWinner
Tanner Boser vs Gokhan SaricamTanner Boser66%WrongGokhan Saricam
Robert Valentin vs Julien LeblancRobert Valentin66%RightRobert Valentin
Gilbert Burns vs Mike MalottMike Malott66%RightMike Malott
Daria Zhelezniakova vs Melissa CrodenMelissa Croden63%RightMelissa Croden
Jamey-Lyn Horth vs JJ AldrichJamey-Lyn Horth51%WrongJJ Aldrich
Karine Silva vs Jasmine JasudaviciusJasmine Jasudavicius66%RightJasmine Jasudavicius
Partial governed prediction coverage
9 of 15 bouts currently have governed model outputs. 6 bouts still render as unavailable until refresh completes.
01Heavyweight
guarded
Fighter A
Tanner Boser
lean
Div #37P4P #47036M 1-1-0
Win vs Jhonata Diniz • KO/TKO • Oct 17, 2026
vs
Fighter B
Gokhan Saricam
Winner
Div #33P4P #44036M 1-0-0
Win vs Tanner Boser • KO/TKO • Apr 18, 2026
66%
34%
model leanTanner Boser

66% model win probability for the current lean, but guarded by volatility or weak-regime caveats

Official result: Gokhan Saricam
KO/TKO • R2 • 4:43
why the model leans this way

Tanner Boser projects ahead on current measurable form and matchup profile. Tanner Boser has the stronger proven sample in this division. Tanner Boser has the clearer incumbency edge in this division. Division-transition caution: Tanner Boser is moving up in weight; Gokhan Saricam is making a division debut.

Risk flags
  • Tanner Boser long layoff
  • Gokhan Saricam low recent sample
  • Gokhan Saricam division debut
  • Tanner Boser moving up in weight
Uncertainty / caveats
  • Tanner Boser is moving up in weight
  • Gokhan Saricam is making a division debut
  • At least one fighter has thin recent sample coverage behind the proxy stats
  • The matchup has uneven recent sample coverage between the fighters
  • Probability is adjusted against historical outcome bins; no live track record has been published yet.
02Middleweight
guarded
Fighter A
Robert Valentin
Winner
lean
Div #62P4P #54936M 2-3-0
Win vs Dusko Todorovic • SUB • Aug 1, 2026
2-fight win streak
vs
Fighter B
Julien Leblanc
Div #94P4P #83336M 0-2-0
Loss vs Nick Galanti • SUB • Oct 17, 2026
2-fight losing streak
66%
34%
model leanRobert Valentin

66% model win probability for the current lean, but guarded by volatility or weak-regime caveats

Official result: Robert Valentin
SUB • R1 • 2:22
why the model leans this way

Robert Valentin projects ahead on current measurable form and matchup profile. Robert Valentin has the stronger proven sample in this division. Robert Valentin has the clearer incumbency edge in this division. Division-transition caution: Julien Leblanc is making a division debut; At least one fighter has thin recent sample coverage behind the proxy stats.

Risk flags
  • Julien Leblanc low recent sample
  • Julien Leblanc division debut
Uncertainty / caveats
  • Julien Leblanc is making a division debut
  • At least one fighter has thin recent sample coverage behind the proxy stats
  • The matchup has uneven recent sample coverage between the fighters
  • Probability is adjusted against historical outcome bins; no live track record has been published yet.
03Welterweight
low
Fighter A
Gilbert Burns
Div #34P4P #23236M 0-4-0
Loss vs Mike Malott • KO/TKO • Apr 18, 2026
5-fight losing streak
vs
Fighter B
Mike Malott
Winner
lean
Div #8P4P #4136M 5-1-0
Win vs Joaquin Buckley • KO/TKO • Oct 17, 2026
5-fight win streak
34%
66%
model leanMike Malott

66% model win probability for the current lean

Official result: Mike Malott
KO/TKO • R3 • 2:08
why the model leans this way

Mike Malott projects ahead on current measurable form and matchup profile. Mike Malott holds the clearer form edge. Mike Malott holds the clearer activity edge.

  • Mike Malott shows the clearer form edge
  • Mike Malott shows the clearer activity edge
Uncertainty / caveats
  • Probability is adjusted against historical outcome bins; no live track record has been published yet.
04Lightweight
pending
Fighter A
Gauge Young
Winner
Div #82P4P #54736M 2-3-0
Loss vs Stan Dorsainvil • Decision - Unanimous • Aug 22, 2026
vs
Fighter B
Thiago Moises
Div #57P4P #40436M 2-3-0
Loss vs Gauge Young • S-DEC • Apr 18, 2026
2-fight losing streak
—
—
model leanNo lean available

Prediction unavailable

Official result: Gauge Young
S-DEC • R3 • 5:00
why the model leans this way

No model summary available for this bout yet.

No governed model output is available for this bout yet. Treat the card as incomplete rather than inferring confidence.
05Lightweight
pending
Fighter A
Jai Herbert
Winner
Div #47P4P #29936M 3-1-0
Win vs Matheus Camilo • Decision - Unanimous • Oct 10, 2026
2-fight win streak
vs
Fighter B
Mandel Nallo
Div #68P4P #47136M 2-1-0
Win vs Nate Landwehr • KO/TKO • Oct 17, 2026
—
—
model leanNo lean available

Prediction unavailable

Official result: Jai Herbert
KO/TKO • R1 • 2:05
why the model leans this way

No model summary available for this bout yet.

No governed model output is available for this bout yet. Treat the card as incomplete rather than inferring confidence.
06Featherweight
pending
Fighter A
Dennis Buzukja
Div #90P4P #67436M 1-4-0
Loss vs Bogdan Grad • SUB • Aug 1, 2026
3-fight losing streak
vs
Fighter B
Marcio Barbosa
Winner
Div #43P4P #34636M 3-0-0
Win vs Ryan Kuse • KO/TKO • Aug 22, 2026
3-fight win streak
—
—
model leanNo lean available

Prediction unavailable

Official result: Marcio Barbosa
KO/TKO • R1 • 1:20
why the model leans this way

No model summary available for this bout yet.

No governed model output is available for this bout yet. Treat the card as incomplete rather than inferring confidence.
07Bantamweight
no read
Jamie Siraj
Div #104P4P #83736M 0-1-0
Loss vs John Yannis • KO/TKO • Apr 18, 2026
vs
John Yannis
Winner
Div #78P4P #64536M 1-2-0
Loss vs Marcus McGhee • U-DEC • Jun 6, 2026
Official result: John Yannis
KO/TKO • R1 • 2:43
No read on this bout

Jamie Siraj has no UFC history. FightIndex does not predict a debut on no data, so the record only carries reads that had evidence behind them.

08Bantamweight
guarded
Fighter A
Mark Vologdin
Div #90P4P #69936M 0-2-1
Loss vs Borislav Nikolic • U-DEC • Aug 1, 2026
2-fight losing streak
vs
Fighter B
John Castaneda
lean
Div #58P4P #48536M 1-3-1
Loss vs Alatengheili • S-DEC • Sep 26, 2026
3-fight losing streak
38%
62%
model leanJohn Castaneda

62% model win probability for the current lean, but guarded by volatility or weak-regime caveats

why the model leans this way

John Castaneda projects ahead on current measurable form and matchup profile. John Castaneda holds the clearer form edge. John Castaneda holds the clearer grappling edge. John Castaneda has the stronger proven sample in this division. John Castaneda has the clearer incumbency edge in this division. Division-transition caution: Mark Vologdin is only in a second fight in this division; John Castaneda is moving down in weight.

  • John Castaneda shows the clearer form edge
  • John Castaneda shows the clearer grappling edge
Risk flags
  • Mark Vologdin low recent sample
  • John Castaneda moving down in weight
Uncertainty / caveats
  • Mark Vologdin is only in a second fight in this division
  • John Castaneda is moving down in weight
  • At least one fighter has thin recent sample coverage behind the proxy stats
  • The matchup has uneven recent sample coverage between the fighters
  • Probability is adjusted against historical outcome bins; no live track record has been published yet.
09Bantamweight
pending
Fighter A
Charles Jourdain
Winner
Div #24P4P #21136M 3-3-0
Loss vs Marlon Vera • KO/TKO • Sep 19, 2026
vs
Fighter B
Kyler Phillips
Div #40P4P #34036M 1-3-0
Loss vs Charles Jourdain • U-DEC • Apr 18, 2026
3-fight losing streak
—
—
model leanNo lean available

Prediction unavailable

Official result: Charles Jourdain
U-DEC • R3 • 5:00
why the model leans this way

No model summary available for this bout yet.

No governed model output is available for this bout yet. Treat the card as incomplete rather than inferring confidence.
10Flyweight
guarded
Fighter A
Mitch Raposo
Div #38P4P #51936M 2-2-0
Win vs Allan Nascimento • S-DEC • Jun 20, 2026
2-fight win streak
vs
Fighter B
Allan Nascimento
lean
Div #33P4P #43936M 2-1-0
Loss vs Mitch Raposo • S-DEC • Jun 20, 2026
34%
66%
model leanAllan Nascimento

66% model win probability for the current lean, but guarded by volatility or weak-regime caveats

why the model leans this way

Allan Nascimento projects ahead on current measurable form and matchup profile. Allan Nascimento holds the clearer form edge. Division-transition caution: Proxy-stat sample coverage is only moderate for this matchup.

  • Allan Nascimento shows the clearer form edge
Risk flags
  • Both fighters carry high finish volatility
Uncertainty / caveats
  • High-volatility matchup: finish variance is elevated and certainty should be discounted.
  • Proxy-stat sample coverage is only moderate for this matchup
  • Probability is adjusted against historical outcome bins; no live track record has been published yet.
11Flyweight
guarded
Fighter A
DongHun Choi
36M 3-0-0
Win vs Kiru Sahota • KO/TKO • Nov 23, 2024
3-fight win streak
vs
Fighter B
Andre Lima
lean
Div #15P4P #24436M 5-1-0
Win vs Namsrai Batbayar • Submission • Aug 29, 2026
34%
66%
model leanAndre Lima

66% model win probability for the current lean, but guarded by volatility or weak-regime caveats

why the model leans this way

Andre Lima projects ahead on current measurable form and matchup profile. Andre Lima holds the clearer grappling edge. Andre Lima has the stronger proven sample in this division. Andre Lima has shown more recent division stability. Division-transition caution: Proxy-stat sample coverage is only moderate for this matchup; The matchup has uneven recent sample coverage between the fighters.

  • Andre Lima shows the clearer grappling edge
Risk flags
  • DongHun Choi long layoff
  • Andre Lima long layoff
  • Both fighters carry high finish volatility
Uncertainty / caveats
  • High-volatility matchup: finish variance is elevated and certainty should be discounted.
  • Proxy-stat sample coverage is only moderate for this matchup
  • The matchup has uneven recent sample coverage between the fighters
  • Probability is adjusted against historical outcome bins; no live track record has been published yet.
12Women's Bantamweight
guarded
Fighter A
Daria Zhelezniakova
Div #22P4P #54636M 2-3-0
Loss vs Alice Pereira • KO/TKO • Oct 10, 2026
2-fight losing streak
vs
Fighter B
Melissa Croden
Winner
lean
Div #16P4P #46836M 2-2-0
Loss vs Chelsea Chandler • SUB • Oct 17, 2026
37%
63%
model leanMelissa Croden

63% model win probability for the current lean, but guarded by volatility or weak-regime caveats

Official result: Melissa Croden
U-DEC • R3 • 5:00
why the model leans this way

Melissa Croden projects ahead on current measurable form and matchup profile. Melissa Croden holds the clearer activity edge. Division-transition caution: At least one fighter has thin recent sample coverage behind the proxy stats.

  • Melissa Croden shows the clearer activity edge
Risk flags
  • Both fighters carry high finish volatility
Uncertainty / caveats
  • High-volatility matchup: finish variance is elevated and certainty should be discounted.
  • At least one fighter has thin recent sample coverage behind the proxy stats
  • Probability is adjusted against historical outcome bins; no live track record has been published yet.
13Women's Flyweight
guarded
Fighter A
Jamey-Lyn Horth
lean
Div #23P4P #41036M 3-3-0
Loss vs JJ Aldrich • U-DEC • Apr 18, 2026
vs
Fighter B
JJ Aldrich
Winner
Div #21P4P #37236M 2-2-0
Loss vs Regina Tarin • U-DEC • Sep 12, 2026
51%
49%
model leanJamey-Lyn Horth

51% model win probability for the current lean, but guarded by volatility or weak-regime caveats

Official result: JJ Aldrich
U-DEC • R3 • 5:00
why the model leans this way

Jamey-Lyn Horth projects ahead on current measurable form and matchup profile. Jamey-Lyn Horth holds the clearer activity edge.

  • Jamey-Lyn Horth shows the clearer activity edge
Risk flags
  • JJ Aldrich long layoff
  • Both fighters carry high finish volatility
Uncertainty / caveats
  • High-volatility matchup: finish variance is elevated and certainty should be discounted.
  • Probability is adjusted against historical outcome bins; no live track record has been published yet.
14Women's Flyweight
guarded
Fighter A
Karine Silva
Div #17P4P #30936M 2-3-0
Loss vs Jasmine Jasudavicius • U-DEC • Apr 18, 2026
2-fight losing streak
vs
Fighter B
Jasmine Jasudavicius
Winner
lean
Div #3P4P #4936M 7-1-0
Win vs Erin Blanchfield • U-DEC • Oct 17, 2026
2-fight win streak
34%
66%
model leanJasmine Jasudavicius

66% model win probability for the current lean, but guarded by volatility or weak-regime caveats

Official result: Jasmine Jasudavicius
U-DEC • R3 • 5:00
why the model leans this way

Jasmine Jasudavicius projects ahead on current measurable form and matchup profile. Jasmine Jasudavicius has the stronger proven sample in this division.

Risk flags
  • Both fighters carry high finish volatility
Uncertainty / caveats
  • High-volatility matchup: finish variance is elevated and certainty should be discounted.
  • Probability is adjusted against historical outcome bins; no live track record has been published yet.
15Catch Weight
pending
Fighter A
John Castaneda
Div #58P4P #48536M 1-3-1
Loss vs Alatengheili • S-DEC • Sep 26, 2026
3-fight losing streak
vs
Fighter B
Mark Vologdin
Div #90P4P #69936M 0-2-1
Loss vs Borislav Nikolic • U-DEC • Aug 1, 2026
2-fight losing streak
—
—
model leanNo lean available

Prediction unavailable

Official result
M-DEC • R3 • 5:00
why the model leans this way

No model summary available for this bout yet.

No governed model output is available for this bout yet. Treat the card as incomplete rather than inferring confidence.