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Event· May 2, 2026

UFC Fight Night: Della Maddalena vs. Prates

The fight card and the model read for every bout, together. Each read shows the probability split, the reasons behind the lean, and the caveats that matter. The model is early-stage and no live track record has been published yet.

Perth, Western Australia, AustraliaCompleted eventPartial slate live13 of 14 bouts with a model read1 without a read (UFC debut)Published Mar 26, 2026 · 36d before the card
Receipt
Read first published
Mar 26, 2026
Lead time
36 days before the card
Read last refreshed
Apr 25, 2026
Card last checked
Aug 27, 2026, 2:15 AM UTC
Card vs read
In sync

Shown unedited since first publication. The date above is the first publication, not the refresh.

Bouts
14
Model reads
13
Partial slate live
Toss-ups
0
Within half a point of 50/50
Completed
13
Official results recorded
Scored receipt
Model 5 of 10

Every bout with a published read, scored against the official result. One card is a small sample; the running record is what counts.

BoutModelWinner
Jack Della Maddalena vs Carlos PratesJack Della Maddalena66%WrongCarlos Prates
Beneil Dariush vs Quillan SalkilldQuillan Salkilld66%RightQuillan Salkilld
Steve Erceg vs Tim ElliottTim Elliott59%WrongSteve Erceg
Shamil Gaziev vs Brando PericicBrando Pericic66%RightBrando Pericic
Tai Tuivasa vs Louie SutherlandTai Tuivasa66%WrongLouie Sutherland
TBD vs TBDTBD51%No winner
Kevin Christian vs Junior TafaKevin Christian51%WrongJunior Tafa
Gerald Meerschaert vs Jacob MalkounJacob Malkoun66%RightJacob Malkoun
Vince Morales vs Colby ThicknesseColby Thicknesse66%RightColby Thicknesse
Ben Johnston vs Wes SchultzWes Schultz62%RightWes Schultz
TBD vs TBDTBD66%No winner
Dom Mar Fan vs Kody SteeleDom Mar Fan66%WrongKody Steele
Partial governed prediction coverage
13 of 14 bouts currently have governed model outputs. 1 bout still render as unavailable until refresh completes.
01Welterweight
guarded
Fighter A
Jack Della Maddalena
lean
vs
Fighter B
Carlos Prates
Winner
Div #2P4P #936M 7-1-0
Win vs Jack Della Maddalena • KO/TKO • May 2, 2026
3-fight win streak
66%
34%
model leanJack Della Maddalena

66% model win probability for the current lean, but guarded by volatility or weak-regime caveats

Official result: Carlos Prates
KO/TKO • R3 • 3:17
why the model leans this way

Jack Della Maddalena projects ahead on current measurable form and matchup profile. Jack Della Maddalena has the stronger proven sample in this division.

Risk flags
  • Both fighters carry high finish volatility
Uncertainty / caveats
  • High-volatility matchup: finish variance is elevated and certainty should be discounted.
  • Probability is adjusted against historical outcome bins; no live track record has been published yet.
02Lightweight
guarded
Fighter A
Beneil Dariush
vs
Fighter B
Quillan Salkilld
Winner
lean
Div #5P4P #3036M 7-0-0
Win vs Mateusz Gamrot • SUB • Aug 8, 2026
7-fight win streak
34%
66%
model leanQuillan Salkilld

66% model win probability for the current lean, but guarded by volatility or weak-regime caveats

Official result: Quillan Salkilld
KO/TKO • R1 • 3:29
why the model leans this way

Quillan Salkilld projects ahead on current measurable form and matchup profile. Quillan Salkilld holds the clearer form edge. Quillan Salkilld holds the clearer grappling edge.

  • Quillan Salkilld shows the clearer form edge
  • Quillan Salkilld shows the clearer grappling edge
Risk flags
  • Both fighters carry high finish volatility
Uncertainty / caveats
  • High-volatility matchup: finish variance is elevated and certainty should be discounted.
  • Probability is adjusted against historical outcome bins; no live track record has been published yet.
03Flyweight
guarded
Fighter A
Steve Erceg
Winner
vs
Fighter B
Tim Elliott
lean
41%
59%
model leanTim Elliott

59% model win probability for the current lean, but guarded by volatility or weak-regime caveats

Official result: Steve Erceg
U-DEC • R3 • 5:00
why the model leans this way

Tim Elliott projects ahead on current measurable form and matchup profile. Tim Elliott holds the clearer form edge. Tim Elliott holds the clearer grappling edge. Tim Elliott has the stronger proven sample in this division. Division-transition caution: Steve Erceg is moving down in weight; One fighter is moving down against a stable incumbent.

  • Tim Elliott shows the clearer form edge
  • Tim Elliott shows the clearer grappling edge
Risk flags
  • Both fighters carry high finish volatility
  • Steve Erceg moving down in weight
Uncertainty / caveats
  • Known weak regime: stable-incumbent-versus-mover fights remain less trustworthy than the overall stack.
  • High-volatility matchup: finish variance is elevated and certainty should be discounted.
  • Steve Erceg is moving down in weight
  • One fighter is moving down against a stable incumbent
  • Probability is adjusted against historical outcome bins; no live track record has been published yet.
04Featherweight
no read
Marwan Rahiki
Winner
vs
Ollie Schmid
Official result: Marwan Rahiki
KO/TKO • R1 • 2:47
No read on this bout

Ollie Schmid has no UFC history. FightIndex does not predict a debut on no data, so the record only carries reads that had evidence behind them.

05Heavyweight
guarded
Fighter A
Shamil Gaziev
vs
Fighter B
Brando Pericic
Winner
lean
34%
66%
model leanBrando Pericic

66% model win probability for the current lean, but guarded by volatility or weak-regime caveats

Official result: Brando Pericic
KO/TKO • R2 • 3:44
why the model leans this way

Brando Pericic projects ahead on current measurable form and matchup profile. Brando Pericic holds the clearer form edge. Brando Pericic holds the clearer striking edge. Division-transition caution: At least one fighter has thin recent sample coverage behind the proxy stats; The matchup has uneven recent sample coverage between the fighters.

  • Brando Pericic shows the clearer form edge
  • Brando Pericic shows the clearer striking edge
Risk flags
  • Both fighters carry high finish volatility
Uncertainty / caveats
  • High-volatility matchup: finish variance is elevated and certainty should be discounted.
  • At least one fighter has thin recent sample coverage behind the proxy stats
  • The matchup has uneven recent sample coverage between the fighters
  • Probability is adjusted against historical outcome bins; no live track record has been published yet.
06Heavyweight
low
Fighter A
Tai Tuivasa
lean
vs
Fighter B
Louie Sutherland
Winner
66%
34%
model leanTai Tuivasa

66% model win probability for the current lean

Official result: Louie Sutherland
U-DEC • R3 • 5:00
why the model leans this way

Tai Tuivasa projects ahead on current measurable form and matchup profile. Tai Tuivasa holds the clearer striking edge. Tai Tuivasa has the stronger proven sample in this division. Division-transition caution: At least one fighter has thin recent sample coverage behind the proxy stats.

  • Tai Tuivasa shows the clearer striking edge
Uncertainty / caveats
  • At least one fighter has thin recent sample coverage behind the proxy stats
  • Probability is adjusted against historical outcome bins; no live track record has been published yet.
07Middleweight
guarded
Fighter A
TBD
lean
vs
Fighter B
TBD
51%
49%
model leanTBD

51% model win probability for the current lean, but guarded by volatility or weak-regime caveats

Official result
U-DEC • R3 • 5:00
why the model leans this way

Cam Rowston projects ahead on current measurable form and matchup profile. Cam Rowston holds the clearer form edge. Cam Rowston holds the clearer activity edge. Cam Rowston has the stronger proven sample in this division. Division-transition caution: At least one fighter has thin recent sample coverage behind the proxy stats; The matchup has uneven recent sample coverage between the fighters.

Risk flags
  • Both fighters carry high finish volatility
Uncertainty / caveats
  • High-volatility matchup: finish variance is elevated and certainty should be discounted.
  • At least one fighter has thin recent sample coverage behind the proxy stats
  • The matchup has uneven recent sample coverage between the fighters
  • Probability is adjusted against historical outcome bins; no live track record has been published yet.
08Light Heavyweight
guarded
Fighter A
Kevin Christian
lean
vs
Fighter B
Junior Tafa
Winner
Div #42P4P #57936M 2-5-0
Loss vs Iwo Baraniewski • KO/TKO • Jun 6, 2026
51%
49%
model leanKevin Christian

51% model win probability for the current lean, but guarded by volatility or weak-regime caveats

Official result: Junior Tafa
KO/TKO • R1 • 2:42
why the model leans this way

Kevin Christian projects ahead on current measurable form and matchup profile. Kevin Christian holds the clearer form edge. Kevin Christian holds the clearer grappling edge. Kevin Christian has shown more recent division stability. Division-transition caution: At least one fighter has thin recent sample coverage behind the proxy stats.

  • Kevin Christian shows the clearer form edge
  • Kevin Christian shows the clearer grappling edge
Risk flags
  • Both fighters carry high finish volatility
Uncertainty / caveats
  • High-volatility matchup: finish variance is elevated and certainty should be discounted.
  • At least one fighter has thin recent sample coverage behind the proxy stats
  • Probability is adjusted against historical outcome bins; no live track record has been published yet.
09Middleweight
guarded
Fighter A
Gerald Meerschaert
Div #31P4P #42036M 2-6-0
Loss vs Julius Walker • KO/TKO • Oct 10, 2026
6-fight losing streak
vs
Fighter B
Jacob Malkoun
Winner
lean
34%
66%
model leanJacob Malkoun

66% model win probability for the current lean, but guarded by volatility or weak-regime caveats

Official result: Jacob Malkoun
U-DEC • R3 • 5:00
why the model leans this way

Jacob Malkoun projects ahead on current measurable form and matchup profile. Jacob Malkoun holds the clearer form edge. Jacob Malkoun holds the clearer grappling edge. Division-transition caution: Proxy-stat sample coverage is only moderate for this matchup; The matchup has uneven recent sample coverage between the fighters.

  • Jacob Malkoun shows the clearer form edge
  • Jacob Malkoun shows the clearer grappling edge
Risk flags
  • Both fighters carry high finish volatility
Uncertainty / caveats
  • High-volatility matchup: finish variance is elevated and certainty should be discounted.
  • Proxy-stat sample coverage is only moderate for this matchup
  • The matchup has uneven recent sample coverage between the fighters
  • Probability is adjusted against historical outcome bins; no live track record has been published yet.
10Bantamweight
guarded
Fighter A
Vince Morales
vs
Fighter B
Colby Thicknesse
Winner
lean
34%
66%
model leanColby Thicknesse

66% model win probability for the current lean, but guarded by volatility or weak-regime caveats

Official result: Colby Thicknesse
U-DEC • R3 • 5:00
why the model leans this way

Colby Thicknesse projects ahead on current measurable form and matchup profile. Colby Thicknesse holds the clearer form edge. Colby Thicknesse holds the clearer activity edge. Division-transition caution: At least one fighter has thin recent sample coverage behind the proxy stats.

  • Colby Thicknesse shows the clearer form edge
  • Colby Thicknesse shows the clearer activity edge
Risk flags
  • Vince Morales long layoff
Uncertainty / caveats
  • At least one fighter has thin recent sample coverage behind the proxy stats
  • Probability is adjusted against historical outcome bins; no live track record has been published yet.
11Middleweight
guarded
Fighter A
Ben Johnston
vs
Fighter B
Wes Schultz
Winner
lean
38%
62%
model leanWes Schultz

62% model win probability for the current lean, but guarded by volatility or weak-regime caveats

Official result: Wes Schultz
SUB • R3 • 1:50
why the model leans this way

Wes Schultz projects ahead on current measurable form and matchup profile. Wes Schultz holds the clearer grappling edge. Wes Schultz has the stronger proven sample in this division. Wes Schultz has the clearer incumbency edge in this division. Division-transition caution: Ben Johnston is making a division debut; At least one fighter has thin recent sample coverage behind the proxy stats.

  • Wes Schultz shows the clearer grappling edge
Risk flags
  • Ben Johnston low recent sample
  • Ben Johnston division debut
Uncertainty / caveats
  • Ben Johnston is making a division debut
  • At least one fighter has thin recent sample coverage behind the proxy stats
  • The matchup has uneven recent sample coverage between the fighters
  • Probability is adjusted against historical outcome bins; no live track record has been published yet.
12Welterweight
guarded
Fighter A
TBD
vs
Fighter B
TBD
lean
34%
66%
model leanTBD

66% model win probability for the current lean, but guarded by volatility or weak-regime caveats

Official result
S-DEC • R3 • 5:00
why the model leans this way

Jonathan Micallef projects ahead on current measurable form and matchup profile. Jonathan Micallef holds the clearer form edge. Themba Gorimbo holds the clearer grappling edge. Themba Gorimbo has the stronger proven sample in this division.

Risk flags
  • Both fighters carry high finish volatility
Uncertainty / caveats
  • High-volatility matchup: finish variance is elevated and certainty should be discounted.
  • Probability is adjusted against historical outcome bins; no live track record has been published yet.
13Lightweight
guarded
Fighter A
Dom Mar Fan
lean
vs
Fighter B
Kody Steele
Winner
66%
34%
model leanDom Mar Fan

66% model win probability for the current lean, but guarded by volatility or weak-regime caveats

Official result: Kody Steele
SUB • R1 • 3:56
why the model leans this way

Dom Mar Fan projects ahead on current measurable form and matchup profile. Dom Mar Fan holds the clearer form edge. Dom Mar Fan holds the clearer activity edge. Dom Mar Fan holds the clearer grappling edge. Division-transition caution: At least one fighter has thin recent sample coverage behind the proxy stats.

  • Dom Mar Fan shows the clearer form edge
  • Dom Mar Fan shows the clearer activity edge
  • Dom Mar Fan shows the clearer grappling edge
Risk flags
  • Kody Steele long layoff
Uncertainty / caveats
  • At least one fighter has thin recent sample coverage behind the proxy stats
  • Probability is adjusted against historical outcome bins; no live track record has been published yet.
14Heavyweight
low
Fighter A
Sean Sharaf
vs
Fighter B
Tai Tuivasa
lean
34%
66%
model leanTai Tuivasa

66% model win probability for the current lean

why the model leans this way

Tai Tuivasa projects ahead on current measurable form and matchup profile. Tai Tuivasa has the stronger proven sample in this division. Division-transition caution: At least one fighter has thin recent sample coverage behind the proxy stats.

Uncertainty / caveats
  • At least one fighter has thin recent sample coverage behind the proxy stats
  • Probability is adjusted against historical outcome bins; no live track record has been published yet.