Event· Sep 5, 2026

UFC Fight Night: Hooker vs. Parnasse

The fight card and the model read for every bout, together. Each read shows the probability split, the reasons behind the lean, and the caveats that matter. The model is early-stage and no live track record has been published yet.

Paris, Ile-de-France, FranceCompleted eventFull slate live15 of 15 bouts with a model readPublished Aug 28, 2026 · 7d before the card

Receipt

Read first published: Aug 28, 2026
Lead time: 7 days before the card
Read last refreshed: Sep 4, 2026
Card last checked: Sep 18, 2026, 10:03 AM UTC
Card vs read: In sync

Shown unedited since first publication. The date above is the first publication, not the refresh.

Bouts

Model reads

Full slate live

Toss-ups

Within half a point of 50/50

Completed

Official results recorded

Scored receipt

Model 5 of 13

Every bout with a published read, scored against the official result. One card is a small sample; the running record is what counts.

Bout	Model	Winner
Dan Hooker vs Salahdine Parnasse	Dan Hooker66%Wrong	Salahdine Parnasse
Axel Sola vs Fares Ziam	Fares Ziam66%Wrong	Axel Sola
Nursulton Ruziboev vs Michael Page	Michael Page56%Right	Michael Page
Punahele Soriano vs Daniil Donchenko	Daniil Donchenko66%Right	Daniil Donchenko
Trevor Peek vs Kurtis Campbell	Kurtis Campbell51%Right	Kurtis Campbell
Losene Keita vs Muhammad Naimov	Muhammad Naimov62%Wrong	Losene Keita
Morgan Charriere vs Felipe Lima	Toss-up50%	Felipe Lima
Mario Pinto vs Ryan Spann	Mario Pinto66%Right	Mario Pinto
Oumar Sy vs Modestas Bukauskas	Oumar Sy55%Wrong	Modestas Bukauskas
Nathaniel Wood vs Pavel Andrusca	Nathaniel Wood66%Wrong	Pavel Andrusca
Michael Aljarouj vs Fabia Sintes	Michael Aljarouj51%Wrong	Fabia Sintes
Klaudia Sygula vs Nora Cornolle	Klaudia Sygula66%Wrong	Nora Cornolle
Luis Felipe Dias vs Matthieu Duclos	Luis Felipe Dias66%Wrong	Matthieu Duclos
Delphine Benouaich vs Sofia Montenegro	Delphine Benouaich51%Right	Delphine Benouaich

01Lightweight

guarded

Fighter A

Dan Hooker

lean

Div #36P4P #22436M 1-3-0

Loss vs Salahdine Parnasse • KO/TKO • Sep 5, 2026

3-fight losing streak

Fighter B

Salahdine Parnasse

Winner

Div #37P4P #25136M 1-0-0

Win vs Dan Hooker • KO/TKO • Sep 5, 2026

66%

model lean

Dan Hooker

34%

model leanDan Hooker

66% model win probability for the current lean, but guarded by volatility or weak-regime caveats

Official result: Salahdine Parnasse

KO/TKO • R1 • 2:35

why the model leans this way

Dan Hooker projects ahead on current measurable form and matchup profile. Dan Hooker holds the clearer grappling edge. Dan Hooker has the stronger proven sample in this division. Dan Hooker has the clearer incumbency edge in this division. Division-transition caution: Salahdine Parnasse is making a division debut; At least one fighter has thin recent sample coverage behind the proxy stats.

Dan Hooker shows the clearer grappling edge

Risk flags

Salahdine Parnasse low recent sample
Salahdine Parnasse division debut

Uncertainty / caveats

Salahdine Parnasse is making a division debut
At least one fighter has thin recent sample coverage behind the proxy stats
The matchup has uneven recent sample coverage between the fighters
Probability is adjusted against historical outcome bins; no live track record has been published yet.

02Lightweight

guarded

Fighter A

Axel Sola

Winner

Div #40P4P #27136M 3-1-0

Win vs Fares Ziam • KO/TKO • Sep 5, 2026

2-fight win streak

Fighter B

Fares Ziam

lean

Div #28P4P #18136M 4-2-0

Loss vs Axel Sola • KO/TKO • Sep 5, 2026

2-fight losing streak

34%

model lean

Fares Ziam

66%

model leanFares Ziam

66% model win probability for the current lean, but guarded by volatility or weak-regime caveats

Official result: Axel Sola

KO/TKO • R1 • 1:40

why the model leans this way

Fares Ziam projects ahead on current measurable form and matchup profile. Fares Ziam has the stronger proven sample in this division. Fares Ziam has shown more recent division stability. Division-transition caution: Proxy-stat sample coverage is only moderate for this matchup; The matchup has uneven recent sample coverage between the fighters.

Risk flags

Both fighters carry high finish volatility

Uncertainty / caveats

High-volatility matchup: finish variance is elevated and certainty should be discounted.
Proxy-stat sample coverage is only moderate for this matchup
The matchup has uneven recent sample coverage between the fighters
Probability is adjusted against historical outcome bins; no live track record has been published yet.

03Middleweight

guarded

Fighter A

Nursulton Ruziboev

Div #23P4P #19436M 4-2-0

Loss vs Michael Page • Decision - Unanimous • Sep 5, 2026

Fighter B

Michael Page

Winner

lean

Div #6P4P #3236M 5-1-0

Win vs Nursulton Ruziboev • Decision - Unanimous • Sep 5, 2026

4-fight win streak

44%

model lean

Michael Page

56%

model leanMichael Page

56% model win probability for the current lean, but guarded by volatility or weak-regime caveats

Official result: Michael Page

Decision - Unanimous • R3 • 5:00

why the model leans this way

Michael Page projects ahead on current measurable form and matchup profile. Division-transition caution: Michael Page is moving up in weight; One fighter is moving up against a stable incumbent.

Risk flags

Both fighters carry high finish volatility
Michael Page moving up in weight

Uncertainty / caveats

Known weak regime: stable-incumbent-versus-mover fights remain less trustworthy than the overall stack.
High-volatility matchup: finish variance is elevated and certainty should be discounted.
Michael Page is moving up in weight
One fighter is moving up against a stable incumbent
Probability is adjusted against historical outcome bins; no live track record has been published yet.

04Welterweight

guarded

Fighter A

Punahele Soriano

Div #39P4P #26336M 4-2-0

Loss vs Daniil Donchenko • Decision - Unanimous • Sep 5, 2026

Fighter B

Daniil Donchenko

Winner

lean

Div #27P4P #15336M 4-0-0

Win vs Punahele Soriano • Decision - Unanimous • Sep 5, 2026

4-fight win streak

34%

model lean

Daniil Donchenko

66%

model leanDaniil Donchenko

66% model win probability for the current lean, but guarded by volatility or weak-regime caveats

Official result: Daniil Donchenko

Decision - Unanimous • R3 • 5:00

why the model leans this way

Daniil Donchenko projects ahead on current measurable form and matchup profile. Daniil Donchenko holds the clearer form edge. Daniil Donchenko holds the clearer activity edge. Division-transition caution: Proxy-stat sample coverage is only moderate for this matchup; The matchup has uneven recent sample coverage between the fighters.

Daniil Donchenko shows the clearer form edge
Daniil Donchenko shows the clearer activity edge

Risk flags

Both fighters carry high finish volatility

Uncertainty / caveats

High-volatility matchup: finish variance is elevated and certainty should be discounted.
Proxy-stat sample coverage is only moderate for this matchup
The matchup has uneven recent sample coverage between the fighters
Probability is adjusted against historical outcome bins; no live track record has been published yet.

05Featherweight

guarded

Fighter A

Trevor Peek

Div #88P4P #66536M 1-3-0

Loss vs Kurtis Campbell • Submission • Sep 5, 2026

3-fight losing streak

Fighter B

Kurtis Campbell

Winner

lean

Div #61P4P #47736M 2-1-0

Win vs Trevor Peek • Submission • Sep 5, 2026

49%

model lean

Kurtis Campbell

51%

model leanKurtis Campbell

51% model win probability for the current lean, but guarded by volatility or weak-regime caveats

Official result: Kurtis Campbell

Submission • R3 • 3:07

why the model leans this way

Kurtis Campbell projects ahead on current measurable form and matchup profile. Kurtis Campbell holds the clearer form edge. Kurtis Campbell holds the clearer activity edge. Kurtis Campbell holds the clearer grappling edge. Kurtis Campbell has the stronger proven sample in this division. Kurtis Campbell has the clearer incumbency edge in this division. Kurtis Campbell has shown more recent division stability. Division-transition caution: Trevor Peek is making a division debut; Trevor Peek is moving down in weight.

Kurtis Campbell shows the clearer form edge
Kurtis Campbell shows the clearer activity edge
Kurtis Campbell shows the clearer grappling edge

Risk flags

Trevor Peek long layoff
Both fighters carry high finish volatility
Trevor Peek division debut
Trevor Peek moving down in weight

Uncertainty / caveats

High-volatility matchup: finish variance is elevated and certainty should be discounted.
Trevor Peek is making a division debut
Trevor Peek is moving down in weight
At least one fighter has thin recent sample coverage behind the proxy stats
Probability is adjusted against historical outcome bins; no live track record has been published yet.

06Featherweight

guarded

Fighter A

Losene Keita

Winner

Div #60P4P #45936M 1-1-0

Win vs Muhammad Naimov • KO/TKO • Sep 5, 2026

Fighter B

Muhammad Naimov

lean

Div #44P4P #35236M 4-3-0

Loss vs Losene Keita • KO/TKO • Sep 5, 2026

2-fight losing streak

38%

model lean

Muhammad Naimov

62%

model leanMuhammad Naimov

62% model win probability for the current lean, but guarded by volatility or weak-regime caveats

Official result: Losene Keita

KO/TKO • R1 • 2:54

why the model leans this way

Muhammad Naimov projects ahead on current measurable form and matchup profile. Muhammad Naimov holds the clearer form edge. Muhammad Naimov holds the clearer grappling edge. Muhammad Naimov has the stronger proven sample in this division. Muhammad Naimov has the clearer incumbency edge in this division. Division-transition caution: Losene Keita is only in a second fight in this division; At least one fighter has thin recent sample coverage behind the proxy stats.

Muhammad Naimov shows the clearer form edge
Muhammad Naimov shows the clearer grappling edge

Risk flags

Losene Keita low recent sample

Uncertainty / caveats

Losene Keita is only in a second fight in this division
At least one fighter has thin recent sample coverage behind the proxy stats
The matchup has uneven recent sample coverage between the fighters
Probability is adjusted against historical outcome bins; no live track record has been published yet.

07Featherweight

guarded

Fighter A

Morgan Charriere

even

Div #49P4P #38936M 2-4-0

Loss vs Felipe Lima • Decision - Unanimous • Sep 5, 2026

2-fight losing streak

Fighter B

Felipe Lima

Winner

even

Div #24P4P #21736M 3-1-0

Win vs Morgan Charriere • Decision - Unanimous • Sep 5, 2026

50%

model read

Toss-up

50%

model readToss-up

Even 50/50 model read, no lean on this bout, but guarded by volatility or weak-regime caveats

Official result: Felipe Lima

Decision - Unanimous • R3 • 5:00

what the model sees

The model splits this bout evenly between Morgan Charriere and Felipe Lima. Neither fighter projects ahead on the measured dimensions, so there is no lean to justify.

Risk flags

Felipe Lima long layoff
Both fighters carry high finish volatility
Felipe Lima moving up in weight

Uncertainty / caveats

Known weak regime: stable-incumbent-versus-mover fights remain less trustworthy than the overall stack.
High-volatility matchup: finish variance is elevated and certainty should be discounted.
Felipe Lima is moving up in weight
One fighter is moving up against a stable incumbent
Proxy-stat sample coverage is only moderate for this matchup

08Heavyweight

guarded

Fighter A

Mario Pinto

Winner

lean

Div #12P4P #12536M 5-0-0

Win vs Ryan Spann • KO/TKO • Sep 5, 2026

5-fight win streak

Fighter B

Ryan Spann

Div #24P4P #26236M 3-3-0

Loss vs Mario Pinto • KO/TKO • Sep 5, 2026

66%

model lean

Mario Pinto

34%

model leanMario Pinto

66% model win probability for the current lean, but guarded by volatility or weak-regime caveats

Official result: Mario Pinto

KO/TKO • R2 • 0:55

why the model leans this way

Mario Pinto projects ahead on current measurable form and matchup profile. Mario Pinto holds the clearer form edge. Mario Pinto holds the clearer striking edge. Mario Pinto has shown more recent division stability.

Mario Pinto shows the clearer form edge
Mario Pinto shows the clearer striking edge

Risk flags

Both fighters carry high finish volatility

Uncertainty / caveats

High-volatility matchup: finish variance is elevated and certainty should be discounted.
Probability is adjusted against historical outcome bins; no live track record has been published yet.

09Light Heavyweight

guarded

Fighter A

Oumar Sy

lean

Div #29P4P #38836M 3-3-0

Loss vs Modestas Bukauskas • KO/TKO • Sep 5, 2026

2-fight losing streak

Fighter B

Modestas Bukauskas

Winner

Div #15P4P #14536M 6-2-0

Win vs Oumar Sy • KO/TKO • Sep 5, 2026

2-fight win streak

55%

model lean

Oumar Sy

45%

model leanOumar Sy

55% model win probability for the current lean, but guarded by volatility or weak-regime caveats

Official result: Modestas Bukauskas

KO/TKO • R2 • 3:57

why the model leans this way

Oumar Sy projects ahead on current measurable form and matchup profile. Oumar Sy holds the clearer grappling edge.

Oumar Sy shows the clearer grappling edge

Risk flags

Both fighters carry high finish volatility

Uncertainty / caveats

High-volatility matchup: finish variance is elevated and certainty should be discounted.
Probability is adjusted against historical outcome bins; no live track record has been published yet.

10Featherweight

guarded

Fighter A

Nathaniel Wood

lean

Div #19P4P #17236M 4-2-0

Loss vs Pavel Andrusca • Decision - Unanimous • Sep 5, 2026

Fighter B

Pavel Andrusca

Winner

Div #29P4P #25036M 1-0-0

Win vs Nathaniel Wood • Decision - Unanimous • Sep 5, 2026

66%

model lean

Nathaniel Wood

34%

model leanNathaniel Wood

66% model win probability for the current lean, but guarded by volatility or weak-regime caveats

Official result: Pavel Andrusca

Decision - Unanimous • R3 • 5:00

why the model leans this way

Nathaniel Wood projects ahead on current measurable form and matchup profile. Nathaniel Wood holds the clearer grappling edge. Nathaniel Wood has the stronger proven sample in this division. Nathaniel Wood has the clearer incumbency edge in this division. Division-transition caution: Pavel Andrusca is making a division debut; At least one fighter has thin recent sample coverage behind the proxy stats.

Nathaniel Wood shows the clearer grappling edge

Risk flags

Pavel Andrusca low recent sample
Pavel Andrusca division debut

Uncertainty / caveats

Pavel Andrusca is making a division debut
At least one fighter has thin recent sample coverage behind the proxy stats
The matchup has uneven recent sample coverage between the fighters
Probability is adjusted against historical outcome bins; no live track record has been published yet.

11Featherweight

guarded

Fighter A

Nathaniel Wood

lean

Div #19P4P #17236M 4-2-0

Loss vs Pavel Andrusca • Decision - Unanimous • Sep 5, 2026

Fighter B

Mairon Santos

Div #15P4P #12736M 4-0-0

Win vs Muhammad Naimov • KO/TKO • Dec 6, 2025

4-fight win streak

66%

model lean

Nathaniel Wood

34%

model leanNathaniel Wood

66% model win probability for the current lean, but guarded by volatility or weak-regime caveats

why the model leans this way

Nathaniel Wood projects ahead on current measurable form and matchup profile. Nathaniel Wood holds the clearer grappling edge. Nathaniel Wood has the stronger proven sample in this division. Nathaniel Wood has shown more recent division stability. Division-transition caution: Proxy-stat sample coverage is only moderate for this matchup.

Nathaniel Wood shows the clearer grappling edge

Risk flags

Both fighters carry high finish volatility

Uncertainty / caveats

High-volatility matchup: finish variance is elevated and certainty should be discounted.
Proxy-stat sample coverage is only moderate for this matchup
Probability is adjusted against historical outcome bins; no live track record has been published yet.

12Flyweight

guarded

Fighter A

Michael Aljarouj

lean

Div #55P4P #75836M 0-1-0

Loss vs Fabia Sintes • U-DEC • Sep 5, 2026

Fighter B

Fabia Sintes

Winner

Div #37P4P #51236M 1-0-0

Win vs Michael Aljarouj • U-DEC • Sep 5, 2026

51%

model lean

Michael Aljarouj

49%

model leanMichael Aljarouj

51% model win probability for the current lean, but guarded by volatility or weak-regime caveats

Official result: Fabia Sintes

U-DEC • R3 • 5:00

why the model leans this way

Michael Aljarouj projects ahead on current measurable form and matchup profile. The matchup looks relatively balanced on current measurable form. Division-transition caution: Michael Aljarouj is making a division debut; Fabia Sintes is making a division debut.

Risk flags

Michael Aljarouj low recent sample
Fabia Sintes low recent sample
Michael Aljarouj division debut
Fabia Sintes division debut

Uncertainty / caveats

Michael Aljarouj is making a division debut
Fabia Sintes is making a division debut
At least one fighter has thin recent sample coverage behind the proxy stats
Probability is adjusted against historical outcome bins; no live track record has been published yet.

13Women's Bantamweight

guarded

Fighter A

Klaudia Sygula

lean

Div #21P4P #52036M 2-2-0

Loss vs Nora Cornolle • Decision - Unanimous • Sep 5, 2026

Fighter B

Nora Cornolle

Winner

Div #13P4P #35336M 3-3-0

Win vs Klaudia Sygula • Decision - Unanimous • Sep 5, 2026

66%

model lean

Klaudia Sygula

34%

model leanKlaudia Sygula

66% model win probability for the current lean, but guarded by volatility or weak-regime caveats

Official result: Nora Cornolle

Decision - Unanimous • R3 • 5:00

why the model leans this way

Klaudia Sygula projects ahead on current measurable form and matchup profile. Klaudia Sygula holds the clearer form edge.

Klaudia Sygula shows the clearer form edge

Risk flags

Both fighters carry high finish volatility

Uncertainty / caveats

High-volatility matchup: finish variance is elevated and certainty should be discounted.
Probability is adjusted against historical outcome bins; no live track record has been published yet.

14Middleweight

guarded

Fighter A

Luis Felipe Dias

lean

Div #66P4P #57336M 2-1-0

Loss vs Matthieu Duclos • KO/TKO • Sep 5, 2026

Fighter B

Matthieu Duclos

Winner

Div #63P4P #55036M 1-1-0

Win vs Luis Felipe Dias • KO/TKO • Sep 5, 2026

66%

model lean

Luis Felipe Dias

34%

model leanLuis Felipe Dias

66% model win probability for the current lean, but guarded by volatility or weak-regime caveats

Official result: Matthieu Duclos

KO/TKO • R1 • 4:35

why the model leans this way

Luis Felipe Dias projects ahead on current measurable form and matchup profile. Luis Felipe Dias holds the clearer form edge. Luis Felipe Dias holds the clearer activity edge. Luis Felipe Dias holds the clearer grappling edge. Division-transition caution: Matthieu Duclos is only in a second fight in this division; At least one fighter has thin recent sample coverage behind the proxy stats.

Luis Felipe Dias shows the clearer form edge
Luis Felipe Dias shows the clearer activity edge
Luis Felipe Dias shows the clearer grappling edge

Risk flags

Matthieu Duclos long layoff
Matthieu Duclos low recent sample

Uncertainty / caveats

Matthieu Duclos is only in a second fight in this division
At least one fighter has thin recent sample coverage behind the proxy stats
Probability is adjusted against historical outcome bins; no live track record has been published yet.

15Women's Strawweight

guarded

Fighter A

Delphine Benouaich

Winner

lean

Div #34P4P #57236M 1-0-0

Win vs Sofia Montenegro • SUB • Sep 5, 2026

Fighter B

Sofia Montenegro

Div #50P4P #76636M 0-2-0

Loss vs Delphine Benouaich • SUB • Sep 5, 2026

2-fight losing streak

51%

model lean

Delphine Benouaich

49%

model leanDelphine Benouaich

51% model win probability for the current lean, but guarded by volatility or weak-regime caveats

Official result: Delphine Benouaich

SUB • R2 • 4:22

why the model leans this way

Delphine Benouaich projects ahead on current measurable form and matchup profile. Division-transition caution: Delphine Benouaich is making a division debut; Sofia Montenegro is making a division debut.

Risk flags

Delphine Benouaich low recent sample
Sofia Montenegro low recent sample
Delphine Benouaich division debut
Sofia Montenegro division debut
Sofia Montenegro moving down in weight

Uncertainty / caveats

Delphine Benouaich is making a division debut
Sofia Montenegro is making a division debut
Sofia Montenegro is moving down in weight
Sofia Montenegro is an unproven mover in this division context
At least one fighter has thin recent sample coverage behind the proxy stats