Event· Apr 4, 2026

UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Duncan

The fight card and the model read for every bout, together. Each read shows the probability split, the reasons behind the lean, and the caveats that matter. The model is early-stage and no live track record has been published yet.

Las Vegas, Nevada, USACompleted eventPartial slate live13 of 14 bouts with a model read1 without a read (UFC debut)Published Mar 26, 2026 · 8d before the card

Receipt

Read first published: Mar 26, 2026
Lead time: 8 days before the card
Read last refreshed: Never
Card last checked: May 12, 2026, 8:00 AM UTC
Card vs read: In sync

Shown unedited since first publication.

Bouts

Model reads

Partial slate live

Toss-ups

Within half a point of 50/50

Completed

Official results recorded

Scored receipt

Model 7 of 11

Every bout with a published read, scored against the official result. One card is a small sample; the running record is what counts.

Bout	Model	Winner
Thomas Petersen vs Guilherme Pat	Guilherme Pat66%Wrong	Thomas Petersen
Brendson Ribeiro vs Abdul Rakhman Yakhyaev	Abdul Rakhman Yakhyaev66%Right	Abdul Rakhman Yakhyaev
Tresean Gore vs Azamat Bekoev	Azamat Bekoev62%Wrong	Tresean Gore
Darrius Flowers vs Lando Vannata	Lando Vannata59%Wrong	Darrius Flowers
Renato Moicano vs Chris Duncan	Renato Moicano51%Right	Renato Moicano
Robert Ruchala vs Jose Delano	Jose Delano66%Right	Jose Delano
Tommy McMillen vs Manolo Zecchini	Tommy McMillen66%Right	Tommy McMillen
Rafael Estevam vs Ethyn Ewing	Ethyn Ewing66%Right	Ethyn Ewing
Stewart Nicoll vs Alessandro Costa	Alessandro Costa66%Right	Alessandro Costa
Hailey Cowan vs Alice Pereira	Alice Pereira51%Right	Alice Pereira
Dione Barbosa vs Melissa Gatto	Toss-up50%	Dione Barbosa
Virna Jandiroba vs Tabatha Ricci	Tabatha Ricci63%Wrong	Virna Jandiroba

Partial governed prediction coverage

13 of 14 bouts currently have governed model outputs. 1 bout still render as unavailable until refresh completes.

01Heavyweight

guarded

Fighter A

Thomas Petersen

Winner

Div #26P4P #33536M 3-4-0

Loss vs Valter Walker • SUB • Jul 25, 2026

Fighter B

Guilherme Pat

lean

Div #47P4P #64736M 1-2-0

Loss vs Steven Asplund • U-DEC • Aug 8, 2026

2-fight losing streak

34%

model lean

Guilherme Pat

66%

model leanGuilherme Pat

66% model win probability for the current lean, but guarded by volatility or weak-regime caveats

Official result: Thomas Petersen

M-DEC • R3 • 5:00

why the model leans this way

Guilherme Pat projects ahead on current measurable form and matchup profile. Guilherme Pat holds the clearer form edge. Division-transition caution: Guilherme Pat is only in a second fight in this division; At least one fighter has thin recent sample coverage behind the proxy stats.

Guilherme Pat shows the clearer form edge

Risk flags

Guilherme Pat low recent sample

Uncertainty / caveats

Guilherme Pat is only in a second fight in this division
At least one fighter has thin recent sample coverage behind the proxy stats
The matchup has uneven recent sample coverage between the fighters
Probability is adjusted against historical outcome bins; no live track record has been published yet.

02Light Heavyweight

guarded

Fighter A

Brendson Ribeiro

Div #32P4P #42236M 3-6-0

Win vs Felipe Franco • Submission • Oct 10, 2026

Fighter B

Abdul Rakhman Yakhyaev

Winner

lean

Div #20P4P #27836M 4-0-0

Win vs Julius Walker • KO/TKO • Jun 27, 2026

4-fight win streak

34%

model lean

Abdul Rakhman Yakhyaev

66%

model leanAbdul Rakhman Yakhyaev

66% model win probability for the current lean, but guarded by volatility or weak-regime caveats

Official result: Abdul Rakhman Yakhyaev

SUB • R1 • 2:52

why the model leans this way

Abdul Rakhman Yakhyaev projects ahead on current measurable form and matchup profile. Abdul Rakhman Yakhyaev holds the clearer form edge. Abdul Rakhman Yakhyaev holds the clearer striking edge. Division-transition caution: At least one fighter has thin recent sample coverage behind the proxy stats; The matchup has uneven recent sample coverage between the fighters.

Abdul Rakhman Yakhyaev shows the clearer form edge
Abdul Rakhman Yakhyaev shows the clearer striking edge

Risk flags

Both fighters carry high finish volatility

Uncertainty / caveats

High-volatility matchup: finish variance is elevated and certainty should be discounted.
At least one fighter has thin recent sample coverage behind the proxy stats
The matchup has uneven recent sample coverage between the fighters
Probability is adjusted against historical outcome bins; no live track record has been published yet.

03Middleweight

guarded

Fighter A

Tresean Gore

Winner

Div #41P4P #33936M 3-2-0

Win vs Vicente Luque • Decision - Unanimous • Aug 15, 2026

2-fight win streak

Fighter B

Azamat Bekoev

lean

Div #65P4P #56936M 2-2-0

Loss vs Tresean Gore • SUB • Apr 4, 2026

2-fight losing streak

38%

model lean

Azamat Bekoev

62%

model leanAzamat Bekoev

62% model win probability for the current lean, but guarded by volatility or weak-regime caveats

Official result: Tresean Gore

SUB • R3 • 3:27

why the model leans this way

Azamat Bekoev projects ahead on current measurable form and matchup profile. Azamat Bekoev holds the clearer form edge.

Azamat Bekoev shows the clearer form edge

Risk flags

Both fighters carry high finish volatility

Uncertainty / caveats

High-volatility matchup: finish variance is elevated and certainty should be discounted.
Probability is adjusted against historical outcome bins; no live track record has been published yet.

04Welterweight

guarded

Fighter A

Jose Henrique

Div #73P4P #62836M 1-0-0

Win vs Ding Meng • S-DEC • May 30, 2026

Fighter B

Charles Radtke

lean

Div #40P4P #31036M 4-2-0

Win vs Francisco Prado • U-DEC • Apr 11, 2026

2-fight win streak

34%

model lean

Charles Radtke

66%

model leanCharles Radtke

66% model win probability for the current lean, but guarded by volatility or weak-regime caveats

why the model leans this way

Charles Radtke projects ahead on current measurable form and matchup profile. Charles Radtke holds the clearer grappling edge. Charles Radtke has the stronger proven sample in this division. Charles Radtke has the clearer incumbency edge in this division. Division-transition caution: Jose Henrique is making a division debut; At least one fighter has thin recent sample coverage behind the proxy stats.

Charles Radtke shows the clearer grappling edge

Risk flags

Jose Henrique low recent sample
Jose Henrique division debut

Uncertainty / caveats

Jose Henrique is making a division debut
At least one fighter has thin recent sample coverage behind the proxy stats
The matchup has uneven recent sample coverage between the fighters
Probability is adjusted against historical outcome bins; no live track record has been published yet.

05Lightweight

guarded

Fighter A

Darrius Flowers

Winner

Div #90P4P #61636M 1-2-0

Win vs Lando Vannata • KO/TKO • Apr 4, 2026

Fighter B

Lando Vannata

lean

Div #97P4P #69036M 0-1-0

Loss vs Darrius Flowers • KO/TKO • Apr 4, 2026

3-fight losing streak

41%

model lean

Lando Vannata

59%

model leanLando Vannata

59% model win probability for the current lean, but guarded by volatility or weak-regime caveats

Official result: Darrius Flowers

KO/TKO • R2 • 0:52

why the model leans this way

Lando Vannata projects ahead on current measurable form and matchup profile. Lando Vannata has the stronger proven sample in this division. Lando Vannata has the clearer incumbency edge in this division. This matchup carries a clear incumbent-versus-unproven-mover dynamic. Lando Vannata has shown more recent division stability. Division-transition caution: Darrius Flowers is only in a second fight in this division; Darrius Flowers is moving down in weight.

Risk flags

Darrius Flowers long layoff
Lando Vannata long layoff
Lando Vannata low recent sample
Darrius Flowers moving down in weight

Uncertainty / caveats

Known weak regime: stable-incumbent-versus-mover fights remain less trustworthy than the overall stack.
Incumbent-versus-unproven-mover dynamic: this regime remains structurally fragile for the model.
Darrius Flowers is only in a second fight in this division
Darrius Flowers is moving down in weight
Darrius Flowers is an unproven mover in this division context

06Lightweight

no read

Dakota Hope

Div #119P4P #83236M 0-1-0

Loss vs Kai Kamaka III • S-DEC • Apr 4, 2026

Kai Kamaka III

Winner

Div #84P4P #63136M 1-2-0

Loss vs Andre Fili • KO/TKO • Oct 10, 2026

2-fight losing streak

Official result: Kai Kamaka III

S-DEC • R3 • 5:00

No read on this bout

Dakota Hope has no UFC history. FightIndex does not predict a debut on no data, so the record only carries reads that had evidence behind them.

07Lightweight

guarded

Fighter A

Renato Moicano

Winner

lean

Div #8P4P #5436M 4-2-0

Win vs Chris Duncan • SUB • Apr 4, 2026

Fighter B

Chris Duncan

Div #23P4P #15936M 4-2-0

Loss vs Renato Moicano • SUB • Apr 4, 2026

51%

model lean

Renato Moicano

49%

model leanRenato Moicano

51% model win probability for the current lean, but guarded by volatility or weak-regime caveats

Official result: Renato Moicano

SUB • R2 • 3:14

why the model leans this way

Renato Moicano projects ahead on current measurable form and matchup profile.

Risk flags

Both fighters carry high finish volatility

Uncertainty / caveats

High-volatility matchup: finish variance is elevated and certainty should be discounted.
Probability is adjusted against historical outcome bins; no live track record has been published yet.

08Featherweight

guarded

Fighter A

Robert Ruchala

Div #95P4P #70436M 0-2-0

Loss vs Jose Delano • U-DEC • Apr 4, 2026

2-fight losing streak

Fighter B

Jose Delano

Winner

lean

Div #56P4P #42836M 2-0-0

Win vs Robert Ruchala • U-DEC • Apr 4, 2026

2-fight win streak

34%

model lean

Jose Delano

66%

model leanJose Delano

66% model win probability for the current lean, but guarded by volatility or weak-regime caveats

Official result: Jose Delano

U-DEC • R3 • 5:00

why the model leans this way

Jose Delano projects ahead on current measurable form and matchup profile. Jose Delano holds the clearer form edge. Division-transition caution: Robert Ruchala is only in a second fight in this division; Jose Delano is only in a second fight in this division.

Jose Delano shows the clearer form edge

Risk flags

Robert Ruchala low recent sample
Jose Delano low recent sample

Uncertainty / caveats

Robert Ruchala is only in a second fight in this division
Jose Delano is only in a second fight in this division
At least one fighter has thin recent sample coverage behind the proxy stats
Probability is adjusted against historical outcome bins; no live track record has been published yet.

09Featherweight

guarded

Fighter A

Tommy McMillen

Winner

lean

Div #20P4P #17836M 4-0-0

Win vs Marwan Rahiki • Decision - Unanimous • Sep 12, 2026

4-fight win streak

Fighter B

Manolo Zecchini

Div #103P4P #74936M 0-1-0

Loss vs Tommy McMillen • KO/TKO • Apr 4, 2026

2-fight losing streak

66%

model lean

Tommy McMillen

34%

model leanTommy McMillen

66% model win probability for the current lean, but guarded by volatility or weak-regime caveats

Official result: Tommy McMillen

KO/TKO • R1 • 3:57

why the model leans this way

Tommy McMillen projects ahead on current measurable form and matchup profile. Tommy McMillen holds the clearer form edge. Tommy McMillen holds the clearer activity edge. Division-transition caution: Tommy McMillen is only in a second fight in this division; Manolo Zecchini is only in a second fight in this division.

Tommy McMillen shows the clearer form edge
Tommy McMillen shows the clearer activity edge

Risk flags

Manolo Zecchini long layoff
Tommy McMillen low recent sample
Manolo Zecchini low recent sample

Uncertainty / caveats

Tommy McMillen is only in a second fight in this division
Manolo Zecchini is only in a second fight in this division
At least one fighter has thin recent sample coverage behind the proxy stats
Probability is adjusted against historical outcome bins; no live track record has been published yet.

10Bantamweight

guarded

Fighter A

Rafael Estevam

Div #32P4P #28536M 3-1-0

Loss vs Ethyn Ewing • KO/TKO • Apr 4, 2026

Fighter B

Ethyn Ewing

Winner

lean

Div #18P4P #16236M 2-0-0

Win vs Rafael Estevam • KO/TKO • Apr 4, 2026

2-fight win streak

34%

model lean

Ethyn Ewing

66%

model leanEthyn Ewing

66% model win probability for the current lean, but guarded by volatility or weak-regime caveats

Official result: Ethyn Ewing

KO/TKO • R3 • 1:44

why the model leans this way

Ethyn Ewing projects ahead on current measurable form and matchup profile. Division-transition caution: Rafael Estevam is making a division debut; Rafael Estevam is moving up in weight.

Risk flags

Ethyn Ewing low recent sample
Rafael Estevam division debut
Ethyn Ewing division debut
Rafael Estevam moving up in weight
Ethyn Ewing moving down in weight

Uncertainty / caveats

Both fighters show recent division movement, which weakens historical comparability.
Rafael Estevam is making a division debut
Rafael Estevam is moving up in weight
Ethyn Ewing is making a division debut
Ethyn Ewing is moving down in weight

11Flyweight

low

Fighter A

Stewart Nicoll

Div #51P4P #70736M 0-4-0

Loss vs Alden Coria • U-DEC • Jul 18, 2026

4-fight losing streak

Fighter B

Alessandro Costa

Winner

lean

Div #21P4P #30436M 4-2-0

Win vs Cody Durden • SUB • Jul 11, 2026

3-fight win streak

34%

model lean

Alessandro Costa

66%

model leanAlessandro Costa

66% model win probability for the current lean

Official result: Alessandro Costa

KO/TKO • R2 • 4:56

why the model leans this way

Alessandro Costa projects ahead on current measurable form and matchup profile. Alessandro Costa holds the clearer form edge. Alessandro Costa has the stronger proven sample in this division. Division-transition caution: At least one fighter has thin recent sample coverage behind the proxy stats.

Alessandro Costa shows the clearer form edge

Uncertainty / caveats

At least one fighter has thin recent sample coverage behind the proxy stats
Probability is adjusted against historical outcome bins; no live track record has been published yet.

12Women's Bantamweight

guarded

Fighter A

Hailey Cowan

Div #28P4P #72136M 0-3-0

Loss vs Nina Milosevic • KO/TKO • Aug 1, 2026

4-fight losing streak

Fighter B

Alice Pereira

Winner

lean

Div #18P4P #48836M 2-1-0

Win vs Daria Zhelezniakova • KO/TKO • Oct 10, 2026

2-fight win streak

49%

model lean

Alice Pereira

51%

model leanAlice Pereira

51% model win probability for the current lean, but guarded by volatility or weak-regime caveats

Official result: Alice Pereira

KO/TKO • R2 • 4:24

why the model leans this way

Alice Pereira projects ahead on current measurable form and matchup profile. Alice Pereira holds the clearer activity edge. Division-transition caution: Alice Pereira is only in a second fight in this division; At least one fighter has thin recent sample coverage behind the proxy stats.

Alice Pereira shows the clearer activity edge

Risk flags

Alice Pereira low recent sample

Uncertainty / caveats

Alice Pereira is only in a second fight in this division
At least one fighter has thin recent sample coverage behind the proxy stats
Probability is adjusted against historical outcome bins; no live track record has been published yet.

13Women's Flyweight

guarded

Fighter A

Dione Barbosa

Winner

even

Div #15P4P #29736M 4-2-0

Win vs Anna Melisano • SUB • Jul 18, 2026

2-fight win streak

Fighter B

Melissa Gatto

even

Div #28P4P #56536M 1-1-1

Draw vs Ernesta Kareckaite • Decision - Majority • Oct 10, 2026

50%

model read

Toss-up

50%

model readToss-up

Even 50/50 model read, no lean on this bout, but guarded by volatility or weak-regime caveats

Official result: Dione Barbosa

M-DEC • R3 • 5:00

what the model sees

The model splits this bout evenly between Dione Barbosa and Melissa Gatto. Neither fighter projects ahead on the measured dimensions, so there is no lean to justify.

Risk flags

Melissa Gatto long layoff
Both fighters carry high finish volatility
Melissa Gatto moving down in weight

Uncertainty / caveats

Known weak regime: stable-incumbent-versus-mover fights remain less trustworthy than the overall stack.
High-volatility matchup: finish variance is elevated and certainty should be discounted.
Melissa Gatto is moving down in weight
One fighter is moving down against a stable incumbent
Proxy-stat sample coverage is only moderate for this matchup

14Women's Strawweight

guarded

Fighter A

Virna Jandiroba

Winner

Div #2P4P #9636M 4-1-0

Win vs Tabatha Ricci • U-DEC • Apr 4, 2026

Fighter B

Tabatha Ricci

lean

Div #12P4P #26436M 3-4-0

Loss vs Fatima Kline • U-DEC • Jul 18, 2026

2-fight losing streak

37%

model lean

Tabatha Ricci

63%

model leanTabatha Ricci

63% model win probability for the current lean, but guarded by volatility or weak-regime caveats

Official result: Virna Jandiroba

U-DEC • R3 • 5:00

why the model leans this way

Tabatha Ricci projects ahead on current measurable form and matchup profile.

Risk flags

Both fighters carry high finish volatility

Uncertainty / caveats

High-volatility matchup: finish variance is elevated and certainty should be discounted.
Probability is adjusted against historical outcome bins; no live track record has been published yet.