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Event· Oct 31, 2026

UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Nolan

The fight card and the model read for every bout, together. Each read shows the probability split, the reasons behind the lean, and the caveats that matter. The model is early-stage and no live track record has been published yet.

Las Vegas, Nevada, USAUpcoming eventPartial slate live10 of 11 bouts with a model read1 without a read (UFC debut)Published Sep 29, 2026 · 31d before the card
Receipt
Read first published
Sep 29, 2026
Lead time
31 days before the card
Read last refreshed
Oct 2, 2026
Card last checked
Sep 30, 2026, 11:03 AM UTC
Card vs read
In sync

Shown unedited since first publication. The date above is the first publication, not the refresh.

Bouts
11
Model reads
10
Partial slate live
Toss-ups
0
Within half a point of 50/50
Guarded
6
Volatility or weak-regime caveat
Partial governed prediction coverage
10 of 11 bouts currently have governed model outputs. 1 bout still render as unavailable until refresh completes.
01Lightweight
medium
Fighter A
Tom Nolan
lean
Div #29P4P #18236M 5-1-0
Win vs Fares Ziam • U-DEC • Jun 6, 2026
5-fight win streak
vs
Fighter B
Renato Moicano
Div #8P4P #5436M 4-2-0
Win vs Chris Duncan • SUB • Apr 4, 2026
59%
41%
model leanTom Nolan

59% model win probability for the current lean

Read published Oct 16, 2026 · revision 3
  • Earlier read (rev 1, Sep 29, 2026): Tom Nolan 59% vs Renato Moicano 41%; superseded Oct 9, 2026 because the model re-ran.
  • Earlier read (rev 2, Oct 9, 2026): Tom Nolan 59% vs Renato Moicano 41%; superseded Oct 16, 2026 because the model re-ran.
why the model leans this way

Tom Nolan projects ahead at 58.7%.

  • Tom Nolan has the edge on age
  • Tom Nolan has the edge on recent form
  • Tom Nolan has the edge on knockout losses on the record
Uncertainty / caveats
  • Winner-only read: this model does not call the method, the round, or whether the fight goes the distance.
02Welterweight
low
Fighter A
Carlos Leal
Div #44P4P #32136M 2-2-0
Win vs Chidi Njokuani • U-DEC • Feb 21, 2026
vs
Fighter B
Randy Brown
lean
Div #22P4P #13336M 3-3-0
Loss vs Kevin Holland • U-DEC • Apr 11, 2026
2-fight losing streak
48%
52%
model leanRandy Brown

52% model win probability for the current lean

Read published Oct 16, 2026 · revision 3
  • Earlier read (rev 1, Oct 2, 2026): Carlos Leal 48% vs Randy Brown 52%; superseded Oct 9, 2026 because the model re-ran.
  • Earlier read (rev 2, Oct 9, 2026): Carlos Leal 48% vs Randy Brown 52%; superseded Oct 16, 2026 because the model re-ran.
why the model leans this way

Randy Brown projects ahead at 52.4%.

  • Randy Brown has the edge on strikes absorbed per minute
  • Randy Brown has the edge on proven rating
  • Randy Brown has the edge on finishes won
Uncertainty / caveats
  • Winner-only read: this model does not call the method, the round, or whether the fight goes the distance.
03Women's Bantamweight
locked
Luana Santos
Div #3P4P #17036M 5-1-0
Win vs Karol Rosa • U-DEC • Jun 20, 2026
3-fight win streak
vs
Yana Santos
Div #6P4P #18536M 3-0-0
Win vs Macy Chiasson • U-DEC • Oct 4, 2025
3-fight win streak
Model probabilities hiddenGet all picks free
04Welterweight
locked
Farman Hasanov
Div #69P4P #55636M 1-0-0
Win vs Eric Nolan • U-DEC • Jun 27, 2026
vs
Jean-Paul Lebosnoyani
Div #28P4P #15436M 3-0-0
Win vs Seokhyeon Ko • U-DEC • Jul 18, 2026
3-fight win streak
Model probabilities hiddenGet all picks free
05Featherweight
locked
Francis Marshall
Div #58P4P #40736M 3-1-0
Win vs Lucas Brennan • U-DEC • Apr 25, 2026
2-fight win streak
vs
Gaston Bolanos
Div #75P4P #57036M 2-2-0
Win vs Michael Aswell Jr. • U-DEC • Jun 20, 2026
Model probabilities hiddenGet all picks free
06Middleweight
locked
Andre Petroski
Div #48P4P #37636M 3-4-0
Loss vs Cody Brundage • KO/TKO • May 16, 2026
3-fight losing streak
vs
Azamat Bekoev
Div #65P4P #56936M 2-2-0
Loss vs Tresean Gore • SUB • Apr 4, 2026
2-fight losing streak
Model probabilities hiddenGet all picks free
07Welterweight
locked
Rodrigo Sezinando
Div #89P4P #79136M 0-1-0
Loss vs Daniil Donchenko • KO/TKO • Sep 13, 2025
vs
Theodor Berggren
Div #82P4P #70536M 0-1-0
Loss vs Daniil Donchenko • KO/TKO • Jun 27, 2026
Model probabilities hiddenGet all picks free
08Featherweight
locked
JeongYeong Lee
Div #62P4P #48436M 1-2-0
Loss vs Daniel Santos • U-DEC • May 10, 2025
2-fight losing streak
vs
Julian Erosa
Div #34P4P #27736M 3-2-0
Loss vs Lerryan Douglas • KO/TKO • Mar 28, 2026
2-fight losing streak
Model probabilities hiddenGet all picks free
09Middleweight
locked
Joe Kropschot
Div #59P4P #51436M 1-0-0
Win vs Jon Kunneman • U-DEC • Aug 11, 2026
vs
Nick Klein
Div #76P4P #65936M 1-2-0
Loss vs Andrey Pulyaev • KO/TKO • Aug 2, 2025
2-fight losing streak
Model probabilities hiddenGet all picks free
10Women's Strawweight
locked
Piera Rodriguez
Div #14P4P #27236M 3-1-0
Win vs Sam Hughes • U-DEC • Mar 14, 2026
3-fight win streak
vs
Talita Alencar
Div #17P4P #30036M 4-1-0
Win vs Julia Polastri • U-DEC • Apr 25, 2026
3-fight win streak
Model probabilities hiddenGet all picks free
11Women's Flyweight
no read
Lucia Szabova
vs
Tainara Lisboa
Div #27P4P #67836M 0-2-0
Loss vs Melissa Croden • KO/TKO • Oct 18, 2025
2-fight losing streak
No read on this bout

Lucia Szabova has no UFC history. FightIndex does not predict a debut on no data, so the record only carries reads that had evidence behind them.

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8 more bouts on this card

The full slate, with model probabilities, confidence, and the reasoning behind each lean, is published here by Friday for Saturday cards and goes out by email before the card.

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