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Event· Jun 6, 2026

UFC Fight Night: Muhammad vs. Bonfim

The fight card and the model read for every bout, together. Each read shows the probability split, the reasons behind the lean, and the caveats that matter. The model is early-stage and no live track record has been published yet.

Las Vegas, Nevada, USACompleted eventPartial slate live12 of 16 bouts with a model readPublished Mar 26, 2026 · 71d before the card
Receipt
Read first published
Mar 26, 2026
Lead time
71 days before the card
Read last refreshed
Apr 25, 2026
Card last checked
Aug 27, 2026, 2:15 AM UTC
Card vs read
In sync

Shown unedited since first publication. The date above is the first publication, not the refresh.

Bouts
16
Model reads
12
Partial slate live
Toss-ups
0
Within half a point of 50/50
Completed
12
Official results recorded
Scored receipt
Model 4 of 8

Every bout with a published read, scored against the official result. One card is a small sample; the running record is what counts.

BoutModelWinner
Gabriel Bonfim vs Belal MuhammadBelal Muhammad66%WrongGabriel Bonfim
Brendan Allen vs Edmen ShahbazyanBrendan Allen65%RightBrendan Allen
Fares Ziam vs Tom NolanFares Ziam66%WrongTom Nolan
Bruno Silva vs Edgar ChairezBruno Silva62%WrongEdgar Chairez
Chelsea Chandler vs Priscila CachoeiraPriscila Cachoeira62%WrongChelsea Chandler
Joanderson Brito vs Jordan LeavittJoanderson Brito66%RightJoanderson Brito
Jeisla Chaves vs Yuneisy DubenJeisla Chaves66%RightJeisla Chaves
Ketlen Souza vs Ariane CarnelossiKetlen Souza66%RightKetlen Souza
Partial governed prediction coverage
12 of 16 bouts currently have governed model outputs. 4 bouts still render as unavailable until refresh completes.
01Welterweight
guarded
Fighter A
Gabriel Bonfim
Winner
Div #7P4P #3536M 5-1-0
Win vs Belal Muhammad • U-DEC • Jun 6, 2026
5-fight win streak
vs
Fighter B
Belal Muhammad
lean
Div #14P4P #7936M 1-3-0
Loss vs Gabriel Bonfim • U-DEC • Jun 6, 2026
3-fight losing streak
34%
66%
model leanBelal Muhammad

66% model win probability for the current lean, but guarded by volatility or weak-regime caveats

Official result: Gabriel Bonfim
U-DEC • R5 • 5:00
why the model leans this way

Belal Muhammad projects ahead on current measurable form and matchup profile. Belal Muhammad has the stronger proven sample in this division.

Risk flags
  • Both fighters carry high finish volatility
Uncertainty / caveats
  • High-volatility matchup: finish variance is elevated and certainty should be discounted.
  • Probability is adjusted against historical outcome bins; no live track record has been published yet.
02Light Heavyweight
guarded
Fighter A
Billy Elekana
Div #26P4P #34136M 3-1-0
Win vs Junior Tafa • SUB • Jan 31, 2026
3-fight win streak
vs
Fighter B
Iwo Baraniewski
lean
Div #24P4P #31136M 4-1-0
Loss vs Alonzo Menifield • Decision - Split • Sep 19, 2026
37%
63%
model leanIwo Baraniewski

63% model win probability for the current lean, but guarded by volatility or weak-regime caveats

why the model leans this way

Iwo Baraniewski projects ahead on current measurable form and matchup profile. Iwo Baraniewski holds the clearer form edge.

  • Iwo Baraniewski shows the clearer form edge
Risk flags
  • Both fighters carry high finish volatility
Uncertainty / caveats
  • High-volatility matchup: finish variance is elevated and certainty should be discounted.
  • Probability is adjusted against historical outcome bins; no live track record has been published yet.
03Middleweight
guarded
Fighter A
Brendan Allen
Winner
lean
Div #4P4P #2036M 6-2-0
Win vs Christian Leroy Duncan • SUB • Oct 10, 2026
4-fight win streak
vs
Fighter B
Edmen Shahbazyan
Div #16P4P #11636M 5-2-0
Win vs Brunno Ferreira • U-DEC • Sep 19, 2026
65%
35%
model leanBrendan Allen

65% model win probability for the current lean, but guarded by volatility or weak-regime caveats

Official result: Brendan Allen
U-DEC • R3 • 5:00
why the model leans this way

Brendan Allen projects ahead on current measurable form and matchup profile. Brendan Allen holds the clearer grappling edge. Brendan Allen has the stronger proven sample in this division.

  • Brendan Allen shows the clearer grappling edge
Risk flags
  • Both fighters carry high finish volatility
Uncertainty / caveats
  • High-volatility matchup: finish variance is elevated and certainty should be discounted.
  • Probability is adjusted against historical outcome bins; no live track record has been published yet.
04Lightweight
guarded
Fighter A
Fares Ziam
lean
Div #28P4P #18136M 4-2-0
Loss vs Axel Sola • KO/TKO • Sep 5, 2026
2-fight losing streak
vs
Fighter B
Tom Nolan
Winner
Div #29P4P #18236M 5-1-0
Win vs Fares Ziam • U-DEC • Jun 6, 2026
5-fight win streak
66%
34%
model leanFares Ziam

66% model win probability for the current lean, but guarded by volatility or weak-regime caveats

Official result: Tom Nolan
U-DEC • R3 • 5:00
why the model leans this way

Fares Ziam projects ahead on current measurable form and matchup profile. Fares Ziam holds the clearer form edge. Fares Ziam has the stronger proven sample in this division.

  • Fares Ziam shows the clearer form edge
Risk flags
  • Both fighters carry high finish volatility
Uncertainty / caveats
  • High-volatility matchup: finish variance is elevated and certainty should be discounted.
  • Probability is adjusted against historical outcome bins; no live track record has been published yet.
05Flyweight
guarded
Fighter A
Matt Schnell
Div #41P4P #52736M 1-4-0
Loss vs Alessandro Costa • KO/TKO • Jun 6, 2026
2-fight losing streak
vs
Fighter B
Imanol Rodriguez
lean
Div #14P4P #24336M 3-0-0
Win vs Alden Coria • KO/TKO • Oct 3, 2026
3-fight win streak
34%
66%
model leanImanol Rodriguez

66% model win probability for the current lean, but guarded by volatility or weak-regime caveats

why the model leans this way

Imanol Rodriguez projects ahead on current measurable form and matchup profile. Imanol Rodriguez holds the clearer form edge. Division-transition caution: At least one fighter has thin recent sample coverage behind the proxy stats.

  • Imanol Rodriguez shows the clearer form edge
Risk flags
  • Both fighters carry high finish volatility
Uncertainty / caveats
  • High-volatility matchup: finish variance is elevated and certainty should be discounted.
  • At least one fighter has thin recent sample coverage behind the proxy stats
  • Probability is adjusted against historical outcome bins; no live track record has been published yet.
06Bantamweight
pending
Fighter A
Bryce Mitchell
Winner
Div #15P4P #11936M 3-2-0
Win vs Santiago Luna • SUB • Jun 6, 2026
2-fight win streak
vs
Fighter B
Santiago Luna
Div #57P4P #47436M 2-1-0
Loss vs Bryce Mitchell • SUB • Jun 6, 2026
—
—
model leanNo lean available

Prediction unavailable

Official result: Bryce Mitchell
SUB • R3 • 4:52
why the model leans this way

No model summary available for this bout yet.

No governed model output is available for this bout yet. Treat the card as incomplete rather than inferring confidence.
07Light Heavyweight
pending
Fighter A
Iwo Baraniewski
Winner
Div #24P4P #31136M 4-1-0
Loss vs Alonzo Menifield • Decision - Split • Sep 19, 2026
vs
Fighter B
Junior Tafa
Div #42P4P #57936M 2-5-0
Loss vs Iwo Baraniewski • KO/TKO • Jun 6, 2026
—
—
model leanNo lean available

Prediction unavailable

Official result: Iwo Baraniewski
KO/TKO • R1 • 1:25
why the model leans this way

No model summary available for this bout yet.

No governed model output is available for this bout yet. Treat the card as incomplete rather than inferring confidence.
08Catch Weight
pending
Fighter A
Alessandro Costa
Winner
Div #21P4P #30436M 4-2-0
Win vs Cody Durden • SUB • Jul 11, 2026
3-fight win streak
vs
Fighter B
Matt Schnell
Div #41P4P #52736M 1-4-0
Loss vs Alessandro Costa • KO/TKO • Jun 6, 2026
2-fight losing streak
—
—
model leanNo lean available

Prediction unavailable

Official result: Alessandro Costa
KO/TKO • R1 • 2:28
why the model leans this way

No model summary available for this bout yet.

No governed model output is available for this bout yet. Treat the card as incomplete rather than inferring confidence.
09Bantamweight
guarded
Fighter A
Bryce Mitchell
Div #15P4P #11936M 3-2-0
Win vs Santiago Luna • SUB • Jun 6, 2026
2-fight win streak
vs
Fighter B
Victor Henry
lean
36M 2-1-0
Win vs Pedro Falcao • U-DEC • Apr 5, 2025
34%
66%
model leanVictor Henry

66% model win probability for the current lean, but guarded by volatility or weak-regime caveats

why the model leans this way

Victor Henry projects ahead on current measurable form and matchup profile. Victor Henry has the stronger proven sample in this division. Victor Henry has the clearer incumbency edge in this division. Victor Henry has shown more recent division stability. Division-transition caution: Bryce Mitchell is only in a second fight in this division; Proxy-stat sample coverage is only moderate for this matchup.

Risk flags
  • Victor Henry long layoff
  • Both fighters carry high finish volatility
Uncertainty / caveats
  • High-volatility matchup: finish variance is elevated and certainty should be discounted.
  • Bryce Mitchell is only in a second fight in this division
  • Proxy-stat sample coverage is only moderate for this matchup
  • Probability is adjusted against historical outcome bins; no live track record has been published yet.
10Bantamweight
pending
Fighter A
John Yannis
Div #78P4P #64536M 1-2-0
Loss vs Marcus McGhee • U-DEC • Jun 6, 2026
vs
Fighter B
Marcus McGhee
Winner
Div #19P4P #16536M 4-1-0
Win vs Anthony Romero • KO/TKO • Oct 3, 2026
2-fight win streak
—
—
model leanNo lean available

Prediction unavailable

Official result: Marcus McGhee
U-DEC • R3 • 5:00
why the model leans this way

No model summary available for this bout yet.

No governed model output is available for this bout yet. Treat the card as incomplete rather than inferring confidence.
11Bantamweight
guarded
Fighter A
Jakub Wiklacz
Div #38P4P #32536M 2-0-0
Win vs Muin Gafurov • SUB • Feb 7, 2026
2-fight win streak
vs
Fighter B
Marcus McGhee
lean
Div #19P4P #16536M 4-1-0
Win vs Anthony Romero • KO/TKO • Oct 3, 2026
2-fight win streak
38%
62%
model leanMarcus McGhee

62% model win probability for the current lean, but guarded by volatility or weak-regime caveats

why the model leans this way

Marcus McGhee projects ahead on current measurable form and matchup profile. Marcus McGhee has the stronger proven sample in this division. Division-transition caution: At least one fighter has thin recent sample coverage behind the proxy stats.

Risk flags
  • Both fighters carry high finish volatility
Uncertainty / caveats
  • High-volatility matchup: finish variance is elevated and certainty should be discounted.
  • At least one fighter has thin recent sample coverage behind the proxy stats
  • Probability is adjusted against historical outcome bins; no live track record has been published yet.
12Flyweight
guarded
Fighter A
Bruno Silva
lean
Div #28P4P #41636M 2-4-0
Loss vs Edgar Chairez • SUB • Jun 6, 2026
2-fight losing streak
vs
Fighter B
Edgar Chairez
Winner
Div #22P4P #37336M 4-2-0
Loss vs Tim Elliott • U-DEC • Sep 12, 2026
62%
38%
model leanBruno Silva

62% model win probability for the current lean, but guarded by volatility or weak-regime caveats

Official result: Edgar Chairez
SUB • R1 • 4:13
why the model leans this way

Bruno Silva projects ahead on current measurable form and matchup profile. Bruno Silva holds the clearer grappling edge. Bruno Silva has the stronger proven sample in this division.

  • Bruno Silva shows the clearer grappling edge
Risk flags
  • Both fighters carry high finish volatility
Uncertainty / caveats
  • High-volatility matchup: finish variance is elevated and certainty should be discounted.
  • Probability is adjusted against historical outcome bins; no live track record has been published yet.
13Women's Bantamweight
guarded
Fighter A
Chelsea Chandler
Winner
Div #14P4P #36136M 3-2-0
Win vs Melissa Croden • SUB • Oct 17, 2026
2-fight win streak
vs
Fighter B
Priscila Cachoeira
lean
Div #25P4P #60736M 1-4-0
Loss vs Chelsea Chandler • SUB • Jun 6, 2026
3-fight losing streak
38%
62%
model leanPriscila Cachoeira

62% model win probability for the current lean, but guarded by volatility or weak-regime caveats

Official result: Chelsea Chandler
SUB • R1 • 3:42
why the model leans this way

Priscila Cachoeira projects ahead on current measurable form and matchup profile. Priscila Cachoeira holds the clearer activity edge. Priscila Cachoeira has the stronger proven sample in this division.

  • Priscila Cachoeira shows the clearer activity edge
Risk flags
  • Chelsea Chandler long layoff
  • Both fighters carry high finish volatility
Uncertainty / caveats
  • High-volatility matchup: finish variance is elevated and certainty should be discounted.
  • Probability is adjusted against historical outcome bins; no live track record has been published yet.
14Featherweight
guarded
Fighter A
Joanderson Brito
Winner
lean
Div #14P4P #10236M 5-2-0
Win vs Giga Chikadze • KO/TKO • Sep 19, 2026
3-fight win streak
vs
Fighter B
Jordan Leavitt
Div #45P4P #36236M 2-2-0
Loss vs Joanderson Brito • SUB • Jun 6, 2026
66%
34%
model leanJoanderson Brito

66% model win probability for the current lean, but guarded by volatility or weak-regime caveats

Official result: Joanderson Brito
SUB • R1 • 4:19
why the model leans this way

Joanderson Brito projects ahead on current measurable form and matchup profile. Joanderson Brito holds the clearer grappling edge. Joanderson Brito has the stronger proven sample in this division. Joanderson Brito has the clearer incumbency edge in this division. Joanderson Brito has shown more recent division stability. Division-transition caution: Jordan Leavitt is only in a second fight in this division; At least one fighter has thin recent sample coverage behind the proxy stats.

  • Joanderson Brito shows the clearer grappling edge
Risk flags
  • Both fighters carry high finish volatility
Uncertainty / caveats
  • High-volatility matchup: finish variance is elevated and certainty should be discounted.
  • Jordan Leavitt is only in a second fight in this division
  • At least one fighter has thin recent sample coverage behind the proxy stats
  • The matchup has uneven recent sample coverage between the fighters
  • Probability is adjusted against historical outcome bins; no live track record has been published yet.
15Women's Flyweight
guarded
Fighter A
Jeisla Chaves
Winner
lean
Div #26P4P #54836M 2-1-0
Loss vs Carli Judice • KO/TKO • Aug 22, 2026
vs
Fighter B
Yuneisy Duben
Div #34P4P #70136M 1-2-0
Loss vs Jeisla Chaves • S-DEC • Jun 6, 2026
2-fight losing streak
66%
34%
model leanJeisla Chaves

66% model win probability for the current lean, but guarded by volatility or weak-regime caveats

Official result: Jeisla Chaves
S-DEC • R3 • 5:00
why the model leans this way

Jeisla Chaves projects ahead on current measurable form and matchup profile. Jeisla Chaves holds the clearer form edge. Jeisla Chaves holds the clearer activity edge. Division-transition caution: Jeisla Chaves is only in a second fight in this division; At least one fighter has thin recent sample coverage behind the proxy stats.

  • Jeisla Chaves shows the clearer form edge
  • Jeisla Chaves shows the clearer activity edge
Risk flags
  • Yuneisy Duben long layoff
  • Jeisla Chaves low recent sample
  • Both fighters carry high finish volatility
Uncertainty / caveats
  • High-volatility matchup: finish variance is elevated and certainty should be discounted.
  • Jeisla Chaves is only in a second fight in this division
  • At least one fighter has thin recent sample coverage behind the proxy stats
  • Probability is adjusted against historical outcome bins; no live track record has been published yet.
16Women's Strawweight
guarded
Fighter A
Ketlen Souza
Winner
lean
Div #20P4P #35836M 4-3-0
Loss vs Loopy Godinez • U-DEC • Oct 10, 2026
vs
Fighter B
Ariane Carnelossi
Div #42P4P #62036M 1-2-0
Loss vs Ketlen Souza • KO/TKO • Jun 6, 2026
2-fight losing streak
66%
34%
model leanKetlen Souza

66% model win probability for the current lean, but guarded by volatility or weak-regime caveats

Official result: Ketlen Souza
KO/TKO • R1 • 1:34
why the model leans this way

Ketlen Souza projects ahead on current measurable form and matchup profile. The matchup looks relatively balanced on current measurable form. Division-transition caution: Proxy-stat sample coverage is only moderate for this matchup; The matchup has uneven recent sample coverage between the fighters.

Risk flags
  • Both fighters carry high finish volatility
Uncertainty / caveats
  • High-volatility matchup: finish variance is elevated and certainty should be discounted.
  • Proxy-stat sample coverage is only moderate for this matchup
  • The matchup has uneven recent sample coverage between the fighters
  • Probability is adjusted against historical outcome bins; no live track record has been published yet.