Event· Sep 26, 2026

UFC Fight Night: Rosas Jr. vs. Barcelos

The fight card and the model read for every bout, together. Each read shows the probability split, the reasons behind the lean, and the caveats that matter. The model is early-stage and no live track record has been published yet.

Las Vegas, Nevada, USACompleted eventFull slate live12 of 12 bouts with a model readPublished Aug 28, 2026 · 28d before the card

Receipt

Read first published: Aug 28, 2026
Lead time: 28 days before the card
Read last refreshed: Sep 25, 2026
Card last checked: Oct 9, 2026, 10:02 AM UTC
Card vs read: In sync

Shown unedited since first publication. The date above is the first publication, not the refresh.

Bouts

Model reads

Full slate live

Toss-ups

Within half a point of 50/50

Completed

Official results recorded

Scored receipt

Model 7 of 12

Every bout with a published read, scored against the official result. One card is a small sample; the running record is what counts.

Bout	Model	Winner
Raoni Barcelos vs Raul Rosas Jr.	Raoni Barcelos66%Wrong	Raul Rosas Jr.
Ailin Perez vs Norma Dumont	Norma Dumont51%Wrong	Ailin Perez
Sedriques Dumas vs Luis Hernandez	Luis Hernandez51%Right	Luis Hernandez
Ilimbek Akylbek vs Mahammadali Osmanli	Ilimbek Akylbek51%Right	Ilimbek Akylbek
Melissa Amaya vs Tina Black	Tina Black51%Right	Tina Black
Brady Hiestand vs Rinya Nakamura	Rinya Nakamura66%Wrong	Brady Hiestand
Rodolfo Vieira vs Robert Bryczek	Rodolfo Vieira62%Right	Rodolfo Vieira
Rodolfo Bellato vs Christian Edwards	Rodolfo Bellato66%Wrong	Christian Edwards
Elves Brener vs Josiah Harrell	Elves Brener59%Right	Elves Brener
Ricky Simon vs Montel Jackson	Montel Jackson65%Right	Montel Jackson
Alatengheili vs John Castaneda	John Castaneda62%Wrong	Alatengheili
Vanessa Demopoulos vs Yazmin Jauregui	Yazmin Jauregui59%Right	Yazmin Jauregui

01Bantamweight

guarded

Fighter A

Raoni Barcelos

lean

Div #12P4P #9136M 5-1-0

Loss vs Raul Rosas Jr. • KO/TKO • Sep 26, 2026

Fighter B

Raul Rosas Jr.

Winner

Div #13P4P #10536M 5-0-0

Win vs Raoni Barcelos • KO/TKO • Sep 26, 2026

6-fight win streak

66%

model lean

Raoni Barcelos

34%

model leanRaoni Barcelos

66% model win probability for the current lean, but guarded by volatility or weak-regime caveats

Official result: Raul Rosas Jr.

KO/TKO • R5 • 1:38

why the model leans this way

Raoni Barcelos projects ahead on current measurable form and matchup profile. holds the clearer grappling edge. Raoni Barcelos has the stronger proven sample in this division.

Risk flags

Both fighters carry high finish volatility

Uncertainty / caveats

High-volatility matchup: finish variance is elevated and certainty should be discounted.
Probability is adjusted against historical outcome bins; no live track record has been published yet.

02Women's Bantamweight

guarded

Fighter A

Ailin Perez

Winner

Div #2P4P #9936M 6-0-0

Win vs Norma Dumont • U-DEC • Sep 26, 2026

7-fight win streak

Fighter B

Norma Dumont

lean

Div #4P4P #17536M 3-2-0

Loss vs Ailin Perez • U-DEC • Sep 26, 2026

2-fight losing streak

49%

model lean

Norma Dumont

51%

model leanNorma Dumont

51% model win probability for the current lean, but guarded by volatility or weak-regime caveats

Official result: Ailin Perez

U-DEC • R3 • 5:00

why the model leans this way

Norma Dumont projects ahead on current measurable form and matchup profile.

Risk flags

Both fighters carry high finish volatility

Uncertainty / caveats

High-volatility matchup: finish variance is elevated and certainty should be discounted.
Probability is adjusted against historical outcome bins; no live track record has been published yet.

03Light Heavyweight

guarded

Fighter A

Sedriques Dumas

Div #40P4P #56836M 2-5-0

Loss vs Luis Hernandez • Submission • Sep 26, 2026

4-fight losing streak

Fighter B

Luis Hernandez

Winner

lean

Div #30P4P #41436M 2-0-0

Win vs Sedriques Dumas • Submission • Sep 26, 2026

2-fight win streak

49%

model lean

Luis Hernandez

51%

model leanLuis Hernandez

51% model win probability for the current lean, but guarded by volatility or weak-regime caveats

Official result: Luis Hernandez

Submission • R1 • 0:57

why the model leans this way

Luis Hernandez projects ahead on current measurable form and matchup profile. Luis Hernandez holds the clearer form edge. Luis Hernandez holds the clearer activity edge. Division-transition caution: Sedriques Dumas is making a division debut; Sedriques Dumas is moving up in weight.

Luis Hernandez shows the clearer form edge
Luis Hernandez shows the clearer activity edge

Risk flags

Luis Hernandez low recent sample
Both fighters carry high finish volatility
Sedriques Dumas division debut
Luis Hernandez division debut
Sedriques Dumas moving up in weight

Uncertainty / caveats

High-volatility matchup: finish variance is elevated and certainty should be discounted.
Sedriques Dumas is making a division debut
Sedriques Dumas is moving up in weight
Luis Hernandez is making a division debut
At least one fighter has thin recent sample coverage behind the proxy stats

04Ultimate Fighter 34 Bantamweight Tournament TitleTitle fight

guarded

Fighter A

Ilimbek Akylbek

Winner

lean

Div #61P4P #50636M 1-0-0

Win vs Mahammadali Osmanli • DQ • Sep 26, 2026

Fighter B

Mahammadali Osmanli

Div #95P4P #75236M 0-1-0

Loss vs Ilimbek Akylbek • DQ • Sep 26, 2026

51%

model lean

Ilimbek Akylbek

49%

model leanIlimbek Akylbek

51% model win probability for the current lean, but guarded by volatility or weak-regime caveats

Official result: Ilimbek Akylbek

DQ • R1 • 2:19

why the model leans this way

Ilimbek Akylbek projects ahead on current measurable form and matchup profile. The matchup looks relatively balanced on current measurable form. Division-transition caution: Ilimbek Akylbek is making a division debut; Mahammadali Osmanli is making a division debut.

Risk flags

Ilimbek Akylbek low recent sample
Mahammadali Osmanli low recent sample
Ilimbek Akylbek division debut
Mahammadali Osmanli division debut

Uncertainty / caveats

Ilimbek Akylbek is making a division debut
Mahammadali Osmanli is making a division debut
At least one fighter has thin recent sample coverage behind the proxy stats
Probability is adjusted against historical outcome bins; no live track record has been published yet.

05Ultimate Fighter 34 Women's Strawweight Tournament TitleTitle fight

guarded

Fighter A

Melissa Amaya

Div #51P4P #83936M 0-1-0

Loss vs Tina Black • KO/TKO • Sep 26, 2026

Fighter B

Tina Black

Winner

lean

Div #35P4P #58036M 1-0-0

Win vs Melissa Amaya • KO/TKO • Sep 26, 2026

49%

model lean

Tina Black

51%

model leanTina Black

51% model win probability for the current lean, but guarded by volatility or weak-regime caveats

Official result: Tina Black

KO/TKO • R2 • 3:19

why the model leans this way

Tina Black projects ahead on current measurable form and matchup profile. The matchup looks relatively balanced on current measurable form. Division-transition caution: Melissa Amaya is making a division debut; Tina Black is making a division debut.

Risk flags

Tina Black long layoff
Melissa Amaya low recent sample
Tina Black low recent sample
Melissa Amaya division debut
Tina Black division debut

Uncertainty / caveats

Melissa Amaya is making a division debut
Tina Black is making a division debut
At least one fighter has thin recent sample coverage behind the proxy stats
Probability is adjusted against historical outcome bins; no live track record has been published yet.

06Bantamweight

guarded

Fighter A

Brady Hiestand

Winner

Div #28P4P #23836M 2-0-0

Win vs Rinya Nakamura • Submission • Sep 26, 2026

4-fight win streak

Fighter B

Rinya Nakamura

lean

Div #50P4P #45136M 2-2-0

Loss vs Brady Hiestand • Submission • Sep 26, 2026

34%

model lean

Rinya Nakamura

66%

model leanRinya Nakamura

66% model win probability for the current lean, but guarded by volatility or weak-regime caveats

Official result: Brady Hiestand

Submission • R2 • 4:07

why the model leans this way

Rinya Nakamura projects ahead on current measurable form and matchup profile. Rinya Nakamura holds the clearer activity edge. Rinya Nakamura has the stronger proven sample in this division. Division-transition caution: At least one fighter has thin recent sample coverage behind the proxy stats.

Rinya Nakamura shows the clearer activity edge

Risk flags

Brady Hiestand long layoff
Rinya Nakamura long layoff
Brady Hiestand low recent sample
Both fighters carry high finish volatility

Uncertainty / caveats

High-volatility matchup: finish variance is elevated and certainty should be discounted.
At least one fighter has thin recent sample coverage behind the proxy stats
Probability is adjusted against historical outcome bins; no live track record has been published yet.

07Middleweight

guarded

Fighter A

Rodolfo Vieira

Winner

lean

Div #40P4P #33036M 3-3-0

Win vs Robert Bryczek • U-DEC • Sep 26, 2026

Fighter B

Robert Bryczek

Div #69P4P #59536M 1-3-0

Loss vs Rodolfo Vieira • U-DEC • Sep 26, 2026

2-fight losing streak

62%

model lean

Rodolfo Vieira

38%

model leanRodolfo Vieira

62% model win probability for the current lean, but guarded by volatility or weak-regime caveats

Official result: Rodolfo Vieira

U-DEC • R3 • 5:00

why the model leans this way

Rodolfo Vieira projects ahead on current measurable form and matchup profile. Rodolfo Vieira holds the clearer grappling edge. Rodolfo Vieira has the stronger proven sample in this division. Division-transition caution: Proxy-stat sample coverage is only moderate for this matchup.

Rodolfo Vieira shows the clearer grappling edge

Risk flags

Both fighters carry high finish volatility

Uncertainty / caveats

High-volatility matchup: finish variance is elevated and certainty should be discounted.
Proxy-stat sample coverage is only moderate for this matchup
Probability is adjusted against historical outcome bins; no live track record has been published yet.

08Light Heavyweight

guarded

Fighter A

Rodolfo Bellato

lean

Div #35P4P #46936M 2-2-1

Loss vs Christian Edwards • KO/TKO • Sep 26, 2026

Fighter B

Christian Edwards

Winner

Div #38P4P #52136M 1-1-0

Win vs Rodolfo Bellato • KO/TKO • Sep 26, 2026

66%

model lean

Rodolfo Bellato

34%

model leanRodolfo Bellato

66% model win probability for the current lean, but guarded by volatility or weak-regime caveats

Official result: Christian Edwards

KO/TKO • R3 • 1:47

why the model leans this way

Rodolfo Bellato projects ahead on current measurable form and matchup profile. Rodolfo Bellato holds the clearer form edge. Rodolfo Bellato holds the clearer grappling edge. Rodolfo Bellato has the stronger proven sample in this division. Rodolfo Bellato has the clearer incumbency edge in this division. Rodolfo Bellato has shown more recent division stability. Division-transition caution: Christian Edwards is making a division debut; At least one fighter has thin recent sample coverage behind the proxy stats.

Rodolfo Bellato shows the clearer form edge
Rodolfo Bellato shows the clearer grappling edge

Risk flags

Christian Edwards low recent sample
Christian Edwards division debut

Uncertainty / caveats

Christian Edwards is making a division debut
At least one fighter has thin recent sample coverage behind the proxy stats
The matchup has uneven recent sample coverage between the fighters
Probability is adjusted against historical outcome bins; no live track record has been published yet.

09Lightweight

guarded

Fighter A

Elves Brener

Winner

lean

Div #52P4P #36936M 2-3-0

Win vs Josiah Harrell • KO/TKO • Sep 26, 2026

Fighter B

Josiah Harrell

Div #98P4P #69636M 0-2-0

Loss vs Elves Brener • KO/TKO • Sep 26, 2026

2-fight losing streak

59%

model lean

Elves Brener

41%

model leanElves Brener

59% model win probability for the current lean, but guarded by volatility or weak-regime caveats

Official result: Elves Brener

KO/TKO • R1 • 4:14

why the model leans this way

Elves Brener projects ahead on current measurable form and matchup profile. Elves Brener holds the clearer form edge. Elves Brener holds the clearer grappling edge. Elves Brener has the stronger proven sample in this division. Elves Brener has the clearer incumbency edge in this division. This matchup carries a clear incumbent-versus-unproven-mover dynamic. Elves Brener has shown more recent division stability. Division-transition caution: Josiah Harrell is making a division debut; Josiah Harrell is moving down in weight.

Elves Brener shows the clearer form edge
Elves Brener shows the clearer grappling edge

Risk flags

Elves Brener long layoff
Josiah Harrell low recent sample
Josiah Harrell division debut
Josiah Harrell moving down in weight

Uncertainty / caveats

Known weak regime: stable-incumbent-versus-mover fights remain less trustworthy than the overall stack.
Incumbent-versus-unproven-mover dynamic: this regime remains structurally fragile for the model.
Josiah Harrell is making a division debut
Josiah Harrell is moving down in weight
Josiah Harrell is an unproven mover in this division context

10Bantamweight

guarded

Fighter A

Ricky Simon

Div #31P4P #26536M 2-4-1

Loss vs Montel Jackson • KO/TKO • Sep 26, 2026

2-fight losing streak

Fighter B

Montel Jackson

Winner

lean

Div #16P4P #12836M 3-2-0

Win vs Ricky Simon • KO/TKO • Sep 26, 2026

35%

model lean

Montel Jackson

65%

model leanMontel Jackson

65% model win probability for the current lean, but guarded by volatility or weak-regime caveats

Official result: Montel Jackson

KO/TKO • R2 • 2:39

why the model leans this way

Montel Jackson projects ahead on current measurable form and matchup profile. Montel Jackson holds the clearer form edge.

Montel Jackson shows the clearer form edge

Risk flags

Both fighters carry high finish volatility

Uncertainty / caveats

High-volatility matchup: finish variance is elevated and certainty should be discounted.
Probability is adjusted against historical outcome bins; no live track record has been published yet.

11Bantamweight

guarded

Fighter A

Alatengheili

Winner

Div #41P4P #34536M 2-1-0

Win vs John Castaneda • S-DEC • Sep 26, 2026

Fighter B

John Castaneda

lean

Div #58P4P #48536M 1-3-1

Loss vs Alatengheili • S-DEC • Sep 26, 2026

3-fight losing streak

38%

model lean

John Castaneda

62%

model leanJohn Castaneda

62% model win probability for the current lean, but guarded by volatility or weak-regime caveats

Official result: Alatengheili

S-DEC • R3 • 5:00

why the model leans this way

John Castaneda projects ahead on current measurable form and matchup profile. John Castaneda holds the clearer activity edge. Division-transition caution: Proxy-stat sample coverage is only moderate for this matchup.

John Castaneda shows the clearer activity edge

Risk flags

Alatengheili long layoff
Both fighters carry high finish volatility

Uncertainty / caveats

High-volatility matchup: finish variance is elevated and certainty should be discounted.
Proxy-stat sample coverage is only moderate for this matchup
Probability is adjusted against historical outcome bins; no live track record has been published yet.

12Women's Strawweight

guarded

Fighter A

Vanessa Demopoulos

Div #39P4P #61036M 1-4-0

Loss vs Yazmin Jauregui • KO/TKO • Sep 26, 2026

4-fight losing streak

Fighter B

Yazmin Jauregui

Winner

lean

Div #28P4P #47236M 2-1-0

Win vs Vanessa Demopoulos • KO/TKO • Sep 26, 2026

41%

model lean

Yazmin Jauregui

59%

model leanYazmin Jauregui

59% model win probability for the current lean, but guarded by volatility or weak-regime caveats

Official result: Yazmin Jauregui

KO/TKO • R1 • 1:02

why the model leans this way

Yazmin Jauregui projects ahead on current measurable form and matchup profile. Division-transition caution: Vanessa Demopoulos is moving down in weight; One fighter is moving down against a stable incumbent.

Risk flags

Vanessa Demopoulos long layoff
Yazmin Jauregui long layoff
Both fighters carry high finish volatility
Vanessa Demopoulos moving down in weight

Uncertainty / caveats

Known weak regime: stable-incumbent-versus-mover fights remain less trustworthy than the overall stack.
High-volatility matchup: finish variance is elevated and certainty should be discounted.
Vanessa Demopoulos is moving down in weight
One fighter is moving down against a stable incumbent
Proxy-stat sample coverage is only moderate for this matchup