Event· Jun 14, 2026

UFC Freedom 250

The fight card and the model read for every bout, together. Each read shows the probability split, the reasons behind the lean, and the caveats that matter. The model is early-stage and no live track record has been published yet.

Washington, DC, USACompleted eventFull slate live7 of 7 bouts with a model readPublished Mar 26, 2026 · 79d before the card

Receipt

Read first published: Mar 26, 2026
Lead time: 79 days before the card
Read last refreshed: Apr 25, 2026
Card last checked: Aug 27, 2026, 2:15 AM UTC
Card vs read: In sync

Shown unedited since first publication. The date above is the first publication, not the refresh.

Bouts

Model reads

Full slate live

Toss-ups

Within half a point of 50/50

Completed

Official results recorded

Scored receipt

Model 6 of 7

Every bout with a published read, scored against the official result. One card is a small sample; the running record is what counts.

Bout	Model	Winner
Ilia Topuria vs Justin Gaethje	Justin Gaethje62%Right	Justin Gaethje
Ciryl Gane vs Alex Pereira	Ciryl Gane59%Right	Ciryl Gane
Aiemann Zahabi vs Sean O'Malley	Sean O'Malley62%Right	Sean O'Malley
Josh Hokit vs Derrick Lewis	Josh Hokit66%Right	Josh Hokit
Michael Chandler vs Mauricio Ruffy	Mauricio Ruffy66%Right	Mauricio Ruffy
Bo Nickal vs Kyle Daukaus	Bo Nickal62%Right	Bo Nickal
Steve Garcia vs Diego Lopes	Steve Garcia66%Wrong	Diego Lopes

01Lightweight TitleTitle fight

guarded

Fighter A

Ilia Topuria

Div #1P4P #536M 3-1-0

Loss vs Justin Gaethje • KO/TKO • Jun 14, 2026

Fighter B

Justin Gaethje

Winner

lean

Div #2P4P #736M 3-1-0

Win vs Ilia Topuria • KO/TKO • Jun 14, 2026

3-fight win streak

38%

model lean

Justin Gaethje

62%

model leanJustin Gaethje

62% model win probability for the current lean, but guarded by volatility or weak-regime caveats

Official result: Justin Gaethje

KO/TKO • R4 • 5:00

why the model leans this way

Justin Gaethje projects ahead on current measurable form and matchup profile. Justin Gaethje holds the clearer activity edge. Justin Gaethje has the stronger proven sample in this division. Justin Gaethje has shown more recent division stability. Division-transition caution: Proxy-stat sample coverage is only moderate for this matchup.

Justin Gaethje shows the clearer activity edge

Risk flags

Both fighters carry high finish volatility

Uncertainty / caveats

High-volatility matchup: finish variance is elevated and certainty should be discounted.
Proxy-stat sample coverage is only moderate for this matchup
Probability is adjusted against historical outcome bins; no live track record has been published yet.

02Heavyweight Interim TitleInterim title

guarded

Fighter A

Ciryl Gane

Winner

lean

Div #2P4P #1136M 2-0-0

Win vs Alex Pereira • KO/TKO • Jun 14, 2026

3-fight win streak

Fighter B

Alex Pereira

Div #1P4P #636M 5-2-0

Loss vs Ciryl Gane • KO/TKO • Jun 14, 2026

59%

model lean

Ciryl Gane

41%

model leanCiryl Gane

59% model win probability for the current lean, but guarded by volatility or weak-regime caveats

Official result: Ciryl Gane

KO/TKO • R2 • 1:27

why the model leans this way

Ciryl Gane projects ahead on current measurable form and matchup profile. Ciryl Gane holds the clearer grappling edge. Ciryl Gane has the stronger proven sample in this division. Ciryl Gane has the clearer incumbency edge in this division. Ciryl Gane has shown more recent division stability. Division-transition caution: Alex Pereira is making a division debut; Alex Pereira is moving up in weight.

Ciryl Gane shows the clearer grappling edge

Risk flags

Both fighters carry high finish volatility
Alex Pereira division debut
Alex Pereira moving up in weight

Uncertainty / caveats

Known weak regime: stable-incumbent-versus-mover fights remain less trustworthy than the overall stack.
High-volatility matchup: finish variance is elevated and certainty should be discounted.
Alex Pereira is making a division debut
Alex Pereira is moving up in weight
One fighter is moving up against a stable incumbent

03Bantamweight

guarded

Fighter A

Aiemann Zahabi

Div #9P4P #6336M 4-1-0

Loss vs Sean O'Malley • KO/TKO • Jun 14, 2026

Fighter B

Sean O'Malley

Winner

lean

Div #3P4P #3336M 3-2-0

Win vs Aiemann Zahabi • KO/TKO • Jun 14, 2026

2-fight win streak

38%

model lean

Sean O'Malley

62%

model leanSean O'Malley

62% model win probability for the current lean, but guarded by volatility or weak-regime caveats

Official result: Sean O'Malley

KO/TKO • R2 • 4:02

why the model leans this way

Sean O'Malley projects ahead on current measurable form and matchup profile. Sean O'Malley has the stronger proven sample in this division.

Risk flags

Both fighters carry high finish volatility

Uncertainty / caveats

High-volatility matchup: finish variance is elevated and certainty should be discounted.
Probability is adjusted against historical outcome bins; no live track record has been published yet.

04Heavyweight

guarded

Fighter A

Josh Hokit

Winner

lean

Div #8P4P #5536M 5-0-0

Win vs Derrick Lewis • KO/TKO • Jun 14, 2026

5-fight win streak

Fighter B

Derrick Lewis

Div #14P4P #14936M 2-3-0

Loss vs Josh Hokit • KO/TKO • Jun 14, 2026

2-fight losing streak

66%

model lean

Josh Hokit

34%

model leanJosh Hokit

66% model win probability for the current lean, but guarded by volatility or weak-regime caveats

Official result: Josh Hokit

KO/TKO • R2 • 4:09

why the model leans this way

Josh Hokit projects ahead on current measurable form and matchup profile. Josh Hokit holds the clearer form edge. Josh Hokit holds the clearer grappling edge.

Josh Hokit shows the clearer form edge
Josh Hokit shows the clearer grappling edge

Risk flags

Both fighters carry high finish volatility

Uncertainty / caveats

High-volatility matchup: finish variance is elevated and certainty should be discounted.
Probability is adjusted against historical outcome bins; no live track record has been published yet.

05Lightweight

guarded

Fighter A

Michael Chandler

Div #51P4P #35936M 0-3-0

Loss vs Mauricio Ruffy • KO/TKO • Jun 14, 2026

4-fight losing streak

Fighter B

Mauricio Ruffy

Winner

lean

Div #12P4P #8136M 5-2-0

Loss vs Arman Tsarukyan • KO/TKO • Sep 19, 2026

34%

model lean

Mauricio Ruffy

66%

model leanMauricio Ruffy

66% model win probability for the current lean, but guarded by volatility or weak-regime caveats

Official result: Mauricio Ruffy

KO/TKO • R1 • 4:29

why the model leans this way

Mauricio Ruffy projects ahead on current measurable form and matchup profile. Mauricio Ruffy holds the clearer form edge. Mauricio Ruffy holds the clearer activity edge. Division-transition caution: Proxy-stat sample coverage is only moderate for this matchup; The matchup has uneven recent sample coverage between the fighters.

Mauricio Ruffy shows the clearer form edge
Mauricio Ruffy shows the clearer activity edge

Risk flags

Michael Chandler long layoff

Uncertainty / caveats

Proxy-stat sample coverage is only moderate for this matchup
The matchup has uneven recent sample coverage between the fighters
Probability is adjusted against historical outcome bins; no live track record has been published yet.

06Middleweight

guarded

Fighter A

Bo Nickal

Winner

lean

Div #15P4P #11136M 4-1-0

Win vs Kyle Daukaus • KO/TKO • Jun 14, 2026

2-fight win streak

Fighter B

Kyle Daukaus

Div #46P4P #36836M 2-2-0

Loss vs Marc-Andre Barriault • KO/TKO • Oct 17, 2026

2-fight losing streak

62%

model lean

Bo Nickal

38%

model leanBo Nickal

62% model win probability for the current lean, but guarded by volatility or weak-regime caveats

Official result: Bo Nickal

KO/TKO • R1 • 4:34

why the model leans this way

Bo Nickal projects ahead on current measurable form and matchup profile. Bo Nickal holds the clearer striking edge. Division-transition caution: Proxy-stat sample coverage is only moderate for this matchup.

Bo Nickal shows the clearer striking edge

Risk flags

Both fighters carry high finish volatility

Uncertainty / caveats

High-volatility matchup: finish variance is elevated and certainty should be discounted.
Proxy-stat sample coverage is only moderate for this matchup
Probability is adjusted against historical outcome bins; no live track record has been published yet.

07Featherweight

guarded

Fighter A

Steve Garcia

lean

Div #13P4P #10136M 5-1-0

Loss vs Diego Lopes • KO/TKO • Jun 14, 2026

Fighter B

Diego Lopes

Winner

Div #3P4P #2436M 6-2-0

Win vs Steve Garcia • KO/TKO • Jun 14, 2026

66%

model lean

Steve Garcia

34%

model leanSteve Garcia

66% model win probability for the current lean, but guarded by volatility or weak-regime caveats

Official result: Diego Lopes

KO/TKO • R2 • 2:42

why the model leans this way

Steve Garcia projects ahead on current measurable form and matchup profile. Steve Garcia holds the clearer form edge. Steve Garcia holds the clearer striking edge.

Steve Garcia shows the clearer form edge
Steve Garcia shows the clearer striking edge

Risk flags

Both fighters carry high finish volatility

Uncertainty / caveats

High-volatility matchup: finish variance is elevated and certainty should be discounted.
Probability is adjusted against historical outcome bins; no live track record has been published yet.