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Event· Apr 11, 2026

UFC 327: Prochazka vs. Ulberg

The fight card and the model read for every bout, together. Each read shows the probability split, the reasons behind the lean, and the caveats that matter. The model is early-stage and no live track record has been published yet.

Miami, Florida, USACompleted eventPartial slate live11 of 13 bouts with a model readPublished Mar 26, 2026 · 15d before the card
Receipt
Read first published
Mar 26, 2026
Lead time
15 days before the card
Read last refreshed
Never
Card last checked
May 12, 2026, 8:00 AM UTC
Card vs read
In sync

Shown unedited since first publication.

Bouts
13
Model reads
11
Partial slate live
Toss-ups
0
Within half a point of 50/50
Completed
12
Official results recorded
Scored receipt
Model 4 of 10

Every bout with a published read, scored against the official result. One card is a small sample; the running record is what counts.

BoutModelWinner
Josh Hokit vs Curtis BlaydesJosh Hokit62%RightJosh Hokit
Paulo Costa vs Azamat MurzakanovAzamat Murzakanov59%WrongPaulo Costa
Dominick Reyes vs Johnny WalkerDominick Reyes66%RightDominick Reyes
Vicente Luque vs Kelvin GastelumKelvin Gastelum60%WrongVicente Luque
Kevin Holland vs Randy BrownRandy Brown66%WrongKevin Holland
Esteban Ribovics vs Mateusz GamrotEsteban Ribovics66%WrongMateusz Gamrot
Aaron Pico vs Patricio PitbullPatricio Pitbull66%WrongAaron Pico
Nate Landwehr vs Cub SwansonCub Swanson66%RightCub Swanson
Loopy Godinez vs Tatiana SuarezLoopy Godinez62%WrongTatiana Suarez
Jiri Prochazka vs Carlos UlbergCarlos Ulberg62%RightCarlos Ulberg
Partial governed prediction coverage
11 of 13 bouts currently have governed model outputs. 2 bouts still render as unavailable until refresh completes.
01Heavyweight
guarded
Fighter A
Josh Hokit
Winner
lean
Div #8P4P #5536M 5-0-0
Win vs Derrick Lewis • KO/TKO • Jun 14, 2026
5-fight win streak
vs
Fighter B
Curtis Blaydes
Div #7P4P #5236M 3-2-0
Win vs Waldo Cortes Acosta • Decision - Unanimous • Sep 12, 2026
62%
38%
model leanJosh Hokit

62% model win probability for the current lean, but guarded by volatility or weak-regime caveats

Official result: Josh Hokit
U-DEC • R3 • 5:00
why the model leans this way

Josh Hokit projects ahead on current measurable form and matchup profile. Josh Hokit holds the clearer form edge. Josh Hokit holds the clearer activity edge. Josh Hokit holds the clearer striking edge.

  • Josh Hokit shows the clearer form edge
  • Josh Hokit shows the clearer activity edge
  • Josh Hokit shows the clearer striking edge
Risk flags
  • Both fighters carry high finish volatility
Uncertainty / caveats
  • High-volatility matchup: finish variance is elevated and certainty should be discounted.
  • Probability is adjusted against historical outcome bins; no live track record has been published yet.
02Light Heavyweight
guarded
Fighter A
Paulo Costa
Winner
Div #8P4P #9036M 2-2-0
Win vs Azamat Murzakanov • KO/TKO • Apr 11, 2026
2-fight win streak
vs
Fighter B
Azamat Murzakanov
lean
Div #10P4P #11236M 3-1-0
Loss vs Paulo Costa • KO/TKO • Apr 11, 2026
41%
59%
model leanAzamat Murzakanov

59% model win probability for the current lean, but guarded by volatility or weak-regime caveats

Official result: Paulo Costa
KO/TKO • R3 • 1:23
why the model leans this way

Azamat Murzakanov projects ahead on current measurable form and matchup profile. Azamat Murzakanov holds the clearer form edge. Azamat Murzakanov has the stronger proven sample in this division. Azamat Murzakanov has the clearer incumbency edge in this division. This matchup carries a clear incumbent-versus-unproven-mover dynamic. Azamat Murzakanov has shown more recent division stability. Division-transition caution: Paulo Costa is only in a second fight in this division; Paulo Costa is moving up in weight.

  • Azamat Murzakanov shows the clearer form edge
Risk flags
  • Both fighters carry high finish volatility
  • Paulo Costa moving up in weight
Uncertainty / caveats
  • Known weak regime: stable-incumbent-versus-mover fights remain less trustworthy than the overall stack.
  • High-volatility matchup: finish variance is elevated and certainty should be discounted.
  • Incumbent-versus-unproven-mover dynamic: this regime remains structurally fragile for the model.
  • Paulo Costa is only in a second fight in this division
  • Paulo Costa is moving up in weight
03Light Heavyweight
guarded
Fighter A
Dominick Reyes
Winner
lean
vs
Fighter B
Johnny Walker
Div #13P4P #14636M 2-3-0
Win vs Mick Parkin • KO/TKO • Oct 3, 2026
66%
34%
model leanDominick Reyes

66% model win probability for the current lean, but guarded by volatility or weak-regime caveats

Official result: Dominick Reyes
S-DEC • R3 • 5:00
why the model leans this way

Dominick Reyes projects ahead on current measurable form and matchup profile. Dominick Reyes holds the clearer form edge.

  • Dominick Reyes shows the clearer form edge
Risk flags
  • Both fighters carry high finish volatility
Uncertainty / caveats
  • High-volatility matchup: finish variance is elevated and certainty should be discounted.
  • Probability is adjusted against historical outcome bins; no live track record has been published yet.
04Middleweight
guarded
Fighter A
Vicente Luque
Winner
Div #27P4P #20636M 2-4-0
Loss vs Tresean Gore • Decision - Unanimous • Aug 15, 2026
vs
Fighter B
Kelvin Gastelum
lean
Div #29P4P #21336M 2-3-0
Loss vs Vicente Luque • SUB • Apr 11, 2026
40%
60%
model leanKelvin Gastelum

60% model win probability for the current lean, but guarded by volatility or weak-regime caveats

Official result: Vicente Luque
SUB • R1 • 4:08
why the model leans this way

Kelvin Gastelum projects ahead on current measurable form and matchup profile. Kelvin Gastelum holds the clearer form edge. Kelvin Gastelum has the stronger proven sample in this division. Kelvin Gastelum has the clearer incumbency edge in this division. Kelvin Gastelum has shown more recent division stability. Division-transition caution: Vicente Luque is making a division debut; Vicente Luque is moving up in weight.

  • Kelvin Gastelum shows the clearer form edge
Risk flags
  • Both fighters carry high finish volatility
  • Vicente Luque division debut
  • Vicente Luque moving up in weight
Uncertainty / caveats
  • Known weak regime: stable-incumbent-versus-mover fights remain less trustworthy than the overall stack.
  • High-volatility matchup: finish variance is elevated and certainty should be discounted.
  • Vicente Luque is making a division debut
  • Vicente Luque is moving up in weight
  • One fighter is moving up against a stable incumbent
05Welterweight
pending
Fighter A
Charles Radtke
Winner
Div #40P4P #31036M 4-2-0
Win vs Francisco Prado • U-DEC • Apr 11, 2026
2-fight win streak
vs
Fighter B
Francisco Prado
Div #89P4P #60236M 1-4-0
Win vs Ismael Bonfim • KO/TKO • Oct 10, 2026
—
—
model leanNo lean available

Prediction unavailable

Official result: Charles Radtke
U-DEC • R3 • 5:00
why the model leans this way

No model summary available for this bout yet.

No governed model output is available for this bout yet. Treat the card as incomplete rather than inferring confidence.
06Welterweight
guarded
Fighter A
Kevin Holland
Winner
Div #18P4P #10636M 4-5-0
Win vs Randy Brown • U-DEC • Apr 11, 2026
vs
Fighter B
Randy Brown
lean
Div #22P4P #13336M 3-3-0
Loss vs Kevin Holland • U-DEC • Apr 11, 2026
2-fight losing streak
34%
66%
model leanRandy Brown

66% model win probability for the current lean, but guarded by volatility or weak-regime caveats

Official result: Kevin Holland
U-DEC • R3 • 5:00
why the model leans this way

Randy Brown projects ahead on current measurable form and matchup profile. Randy Brown holds the clearer form edge. Randy Brown has the stronger proven sample in this division. Randy Brown has shown more recent division stability.

  • Randy Brown shows the clearer form edge
Risk flags
  • Both fighters carry high finish volatility
Uncertainty / caveats
  • High-volatility matchup: finish variance is elevated and certainty should be discounted.
  • Probability is adjusted against historical outcome bins; no live track record has been published yet.
07Lightweight
guarded
Fighter A
Esteban Ribovics
lean
Div #13P4P #9436M 5-2-0
Win vs King Green • KO/TKO • Oct 3, 2026
2-fight win streak
vs
Fighter B
Mateusz Gamrot
Winner
Div #10P4P #7436M 3-3-0
Loss vs Quillan Salkilld • SUB • Aug 8, 2026
66%
34%
model leanEsteban Ribovics

66% model win probability for the current lean, but guarded by volatility or weak-regime caveats

Official result: Mateusz Gamrot
SUB • R2 • 4:19
why the model leans this way

Esteban Ribovics projects ahead on current measurable form and matchup profile. Esteban Ribovics holds the clearer form edge.

  • Esteban Ribovics shows the clearer form edge
Risk flags
  • Both fighters carry high finish volatility
Uncertainty / caveats
  • High-volatility matchup: finish variance is elevated and certainty should be discounted.
  • Probability is adjusted against historical outcome bins; no live track record has been published yet.
08Lightweight
pending
Fighter A
Chris Padilla
Div #14P4P #9736M 5-0-1
Win vs Nasrat Haqparast • SUB • Aug 22, 2026
5-fight win streak
vs
Fighter B
MarQuel Mederos
Div #27P4P #17436M 4-0-1
Win vs Mason Jones • KO/TKO • Aug 22, 2026
5-fight win streak
—
—
model leanNo lean available

Prediction unavailable

Official result
M-DEC • R3 • 5:00
why the model leans this way

No model summary available for this bout yet.

No governed model output is available for this bout yet. Treat the card as incomplete rather than inferring confidence.
09Featherweight
guarded
Fighter A
Aaron Pico
Winner
Div #58P4P #43336M 1-1-0
Win vs Patricio Pitbull • U-DEC • Apr 11, 2026
vs
Fighter B
Patricio Pitbull
lean
Div #39P4P #32236M 2-2-0
Win vs Dooho Choi • KO/TKO • Sep 19, 2026
34%
66%
model leanPatricio Pitbull

66% model win probability for the current lean, but guarded by volatility or weak-regime caveats

Official result: Aaron Pico
U-DEC • R3 • 5:00
why the model leans this way

Patricio Freire projects ahead on current measurable form and matchup profile. Patricio Freire holds the clearer form edge. Patricio Freire holds the clearer grappling edge. Division-transition caution: Aaron Pico is only in a second fight in this division; At least one fighter has thin recent sample coverage behind the proxy stats.

Risk flags
  • Aaron Pico low recent sample
Uncertainty / caveats
  • Aaron Pico is only in a second fight in this division
  • At least one fighter has thin recent sample coverage behind the proxy stats
  • Probability is adjusted against historical outcome bins; no live track record has been published yet.
10Featherweight
guarded
Fighter A
Nate Landwehr
Div #78P4P #53736M 1-4-0
Loss vs Mandel Nallo • KO/TKO • Oct 17, 2026
4-fight losing streak
vs
Fighter B
Cub Swanson
Winner
lean
Div #28P4P #23736M 2-1-0
Win vs Nate Landwehr • KO/TKO • Apr 11, 2026
2-fight win streak
34%
66%
model leanCub Swanson

66% model win probability for the current lean, but guarded by volatility or weak-regime caveats

Official result: Cub Swanson
KO/TKO • R1 • 4:06
why the model leans this way

Cub Swanson projects ahead on current measurable form and matchup profile. Cub Swanson holds the clearer form edge. Cub Swanson has the stronger proven sample in this division.

  • Cub Swanson shows the clearer form edge
Risk flags
  • Cub Swanson long layoff
  • Both fighters carry high finish volatility
Uncertainty / caveats
  • High-volatility matchup: finish variance is elevated and certainty should be discounted.
  • Probability is adjusted against historical outcome bins; no live track record has been published yet.
11Women's Strawweight
guarded
Fighter A
Loopy Godinez
lean
vs
Fighter B
Tatiana Suarez
Winner
Div #1P4P #8736M 2-1-0
Win vs Loopy Godinez • SUB • Apr 11, 2026
2-fight win streak
62%
38%
model leanLoopy Godinez

62% model win probability for the current lean, but guarded by volatility or weak-regime caveats

Official result: Tatiana Suarez
SUB • R2 • 2:29
why the model leans this way

Loopy Godinez projects ahead on current measurable form and matchup profile. Loopy Godinez has the stronger proven sample in this division.

Risk flags
  • Both fighters carry high finish volatility
Uncertainty / caveats
  • High-volatility matchup: finish variance is elevated and certainty should be discounted.
  • Probability is adjusted against historical outcome bins; no live track record has been published yet.
12Flyweight TitleTitle fight
guarded
Fighter A
Joshua Van
lean
Div #1P4P #1736M 10-1-0
Win vs Alexandre Pantoja • Decision - Unanimous • Sep 19, 2026
8-fight win streak
vs
Fighter B
Tatsuro Taira
Div #4P4P #8436M 4-2-0
Loss vs Joshua Van • KO/TKO • May 9, 2026
66%
34%
model leanJoshua Van

66% model win probability for the current lean, but guarded by volatility or weak-regime caveats

why the model leans this way

Joshua Van projects ahead on current measurable form and matchup profile. Joshua Van has the stronger proven sample in this division.

Risk flags
  • Both fighters carry high finish volatility
Uncertainty / caveats
  • High-volatility matchup: finish variance is elevated and certainty should be discounted.
  • Probability is adjusted against historical outcome bins; no live track record has been published yet.
13Light Heavyweight TitleTitle fight
guarded
Fighter A
Jiri Prochazka
Div #3P4P #4536M 3-3-0
Loss vs Carlos Ulberg • KO/TKO • Apr 11, 2026
vs
Fighter B
Carlos Ulberg
Winner
lean
Div #1P4P #1336M 5-0-0
Win vs Jiri Prochazka • KO/TKO • Apr 11, 2026
10-fight win streak
38%
62%
model leanCarlos Ulberg

62% model win probability for the current lean, but guarded by volatility or weak-regime caveats

Official result: Carlos Ulberg
KO/TKO • R1 • 3:45
why the model leans this way

Carlos Ulberg projects ahead on current measurable form and matchup profile. Carlos Ulberg holds the clearer form edge. Carlos Ulberg has the stronger proven sample in this division.

  • Carlos Ulberg shows the clearer form edge
Risk flags
  • Both fighters carry high finish volatility
Uncertainty / caveats
  • High-volatility matchup: finish variance is elevated and certainty should be discounted.
  • Probability is adjusted against historical outcome bins; no live track record has been published yet.