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Event· Nov 14, 2026

UFC 334: Gane vs. Hokit

The fight card and the model read for every bout, together. Each read shows the probability split, the reasons behind the lean, and the caveats that matter. The model is early-stage and no live track record has been published yet.

New York City, New York, USAUpcoming eventFull slate live12 of 12 bouts with a model readPublished Sep 29, 2026 · 45d before the card
Receipt
Read first published
Sep 29, 2026
Lead time
45 days before the card
Read last refreshed
Never
Card last checked
Sep 20, 2026, 10:04 AM UTC
Card vs read
In sync

Shown unedited since first publication.

Bouts
12
Model reads
12
Full slate live
Toss-ups
0
Within half a point of 50/50
Guarded
7
Volatility or weak-regime caveat
01Heavyweight TitleTitle fight
low
Fighter A
Ciryl Gane
lean
Div #2P4P #1136M 2-0-0
Win vs Alex Pereira • KO/TKO • Jun 14, 2026
3-fight win streak
vs
Fighter B
Josh Hokit
Div #8P4P #5536M 5-0-0
Win vs Derrick Lewis • KO/TKO • Jun 14, 2026
5-fight win streak
54%
46%
model leanCiryl Gane

54% model win probability for the current lean

Read published Oct 16, 2026 · revision 3
  • Earlier read (rev 1, Sep 29, 2026): Ciryl Gane 54% vs Josh Hokit 46%; superseded Oct 9, 2026 because the model re-ran.
  • Earlier read (rev 2, Oct 9, 2026): Ciryl Gane 54% vs Josh Hokit 46%; superseded Oct 16, 2026 because the model re-ran.
why the model leans this way

Ciryl Gane projects ahead at 54.4%.

  • Ciryl Gane has the edge on reach
  • Ciryl Gane has the edge on proven rating
  • Ciryl Gane has the edge on strikes absorbed per minute
Uncertainty / caveats
  • Winner-only read: this model does not call the method, the round, or whether the fight goes the distance.
02Women's Bantamweight TitleTitle fight
guarded
Fighter A
Kayla Harrison
lean
Div #1P4P #7336M 3-0-0
Win vs Julianna Pena • SUB • Jun 7, 2025
3-fight win streak
vs
Fighter B
Amanda Nunes
Win vs Irene Aldana • U-DEC • Jun 10, 2023
2-fight win streak
60%
40%
model leanKayla Harrison

60% model win probability for the current lean, but guarded by volatility or weak-regime caveats

Read published Oct 16, 2026 · revision 2
  • Earlier read (rev 1, Sep 29, 2026): Kayla Harrison 60% vs Amanda Nunes 40%; superseded Oct 16, 2026 because the model re-ran.
why the model leans this way

Kayla Harrison projects ahead at 60.1%.

  • Kayla Harrison has the edge on recent form
  • Kayla Harrison has the edge on knockout losses on the record
  • Kayla Harrison has the edge on the stance matchup
Risk flags
  • Kayla Harrison long layoff
  • Amanda Nunes long layoff
  • Amanda Nunes low recent sample
Uncertainty / caveats
  • Winner-only read: this model does not call the method, the round, or whether the fight goes the distance.
  • Incomplete inputs: 3 of 56 measured comparisons were unavailable for this matchup, so the read rests on fewer signals than a fully covered bout.
03Middleweight
locked
Caio Borralho
Div #8P4P #4336M 4-1-0
Win vs Reinier de Ridder • U-DEC • Mar 7, 2026
vs
Yousri Belgaroui
Div #21P4P #17636M 4-0-0
Win vs Djorden Santos • KO/TKO • Sep 12, 2026
4-fight win streak
Model probabilities hiddenGet all picks free
04Welterweight
locked
Kevin Holland
Div #18P4P #10636M 4-5-0
Win vs Randy Brown • U-DEC • Apr 11, 2026
vs
Uros Medic
Div #16P4P #9236M 5-2-0
Win vs Daniel Rodriguez • KO/TKO • Aug 1, 2026
4-fight win streak
Model probabilities hiddenGet all picks free
05Flyweight
locked
Bilal Hasan
Div #34P4P #44536M 2-0-0
Win vs Nilson Rojas • KO/TKO • Aug 29, 2026
2-fight win streak
vs
Luis Gurule
Div #65P4P #55836M 2-4-0
Loss vs Rei Tsuruya • SUB • May 30, 2026
Model probabilities hiddenGet all picks free
06Welterweight
locked
Charles Radtke
Div #40P4P #31036M 4-2-0
Win vs Francisco Prado • U-DEC • Apr 11, 2026
2-fight win streak
vs
Stephen Thompson
Div #43P4P #32036M 0-3-0
Loss vs Gabriel Bonfim • S-DEC • Jul 12, 2025
3-fight losing streak
Model probabilities hiddenGet all picks free
07Lightweight
locked
Chris Duncan
Div #23P4P #15936M 4-2-0
Loss vs Renato Moicano • SUB • Apr 4, 2026
vs
Drew Dober
Div #41P4P #27936M 2-3-0
Win vs Michael Johnson • KO/TKO • Mar 7, 2026
2-fight win streak
Model probabilities hiddenGet all picks free
08Lightweight
locked
Jim Miller
Div #33P4P #20036M 3-2-0
Win vs Jared Gordon • SUB • May 9, 2026
vs
Terrance McKinney
Div #45P4P #29236M 3-3-0
Loss vs King Green • KO/TKO • Jul 11, 2026
Model probabilities hiddenGet all picks free
09Middleweight
locked
Baisangur Susurkaev
Div #35P4P #24236M 4-0-0
Win vs Djorden Santos • SUB • May 9, 2026
4-fight win streak
vs
Donte Johnson
Div #26P4P #19936M 4-0-0
Win vs Eric McConico • KO/TKO • Aug 15, 2026
4-fight win streak
Model probabilities hiddenGet all picks free
10Women's Bantamweight
locked
Bia Mesquita
Div #10P4P #28036M 3-0-0
Win vs Melissa Mullins • SUB • Jun 20, 2026
3-fight win streak
vs
Macy Chiasson
Div #15P4P #36436M 2-3-0
Loss vs Ailin Perez • U-DEC • Feb 28, 2026
3-fight losing streak
Model probabilities hiddenGet all picks free
11Bantamweight
locked
Adrian Yanez
Div #30P4P #25936M 2-1-1
Win vs Cody Garbrandt • KO/TKO • Jul 11, 2026
vs
Juan Diaz
Div #39P4P #33636M 2-0-0
Win vs Malcolm Wellmaker • SUB • May 16, 2026
2-fight win streak
Model probabilities hiddenGet all picks free
12Lightweight
locked
Jefferson Nascimento
Div #87P4P #76536M 0-1-0
Loss vs Tahir Abdullayev • KO/TKO • Jun 27, 2026
vs
Nazim Sadykhov
Div #50P4P #35136M 2-2-1
Loss vs Matheus Camilo • KO/TKO • Jun 27, 2026
2-fight losing streak
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10 more bouts on this card

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