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Event· Dec 12, 2026

UFC 335: Oliveira vs. Lopes

The fight card and the model read for every bout, together. Each read shows the probability split, the reasons behind the lean, and the caveats that matter. The model is early-stage and no live track record has been published yet.

Las Vegas, Nevada, USAUpcoming eventPartial slate live5 of 6 bouts with a model readPublished Oct 9, 2026 · 63d before the card
Receipt
Read first published
Oct 9, 2026
Lead time
63 days before the card
Read last refreshed
Oct 16, 2026
Card last checked
Oct 15, 2026, 11:02 AM UTC
Card vs read
In sync

Shown unedited since first publication. The date above is the first publication, not the refresh.

Bouts
6
Model reads
5
Partial slate live
Toss-ups
0
Within half a point of 50/50
Guarded
1
Volatility or weak-regime caveat
Partial governed prediction coverage
5 of 6 bouts currently have governed model outputs. 1 bout still render as unavailable until refresh completes.
01Lightweight
guarded
Fighter A
Charles Oliveira
Div #4P4P #1636M 3-2-0
Win vs Max Holloway • U-DEC • Mar 7, 2026
2-fight win streak
vs
Fighter B
Diego Lopes
lean
Div #3P4P #2436M 6-2-0
Win vs Steve Garcia • KO/TKO • Jun 14, 2026
39%
61%
model leanDiego Lopes

61% model win probability for the current lean, but guarded by volatility or weak-regime caveats

Read published Oct 16, 2026 · revision 2
  • Earlier read (rev 1, Oct 9, 2026): Charles Oliveira 39% vs Diego Lopes 61%; superseded Oct 16, 2026 because the model re-ran.
why the model leans this way

Diego Lopes projects ahead at 60.6%.

  • Diego Lopes has the edge on knockout losses on the record
  • Diego Lopes has the edge on age
  • Diego Lopes has the edge on experience in this division
Risk flags
  • Diego Lopes division debut
  • Diego Lopes moving up in weight
Uncertainty / caveats
  • Winner-only read: this model does not call the method, the round, or whether the fight goes the distance.
  • Incomplete inputs: 2 of 56 measured comparisons were unavailable for this matchup, so the read rests on fewer signals than a fully covered bout.
02Heavyweight
medium
Fighter A
Alex Pereira
vs
Fighter B
Sergei Pavlovich
lean
Div #6P4P #4736M 3-2-0
Win vs Tallison Teixeira • KO/TKO • May 30, 2026
3-fight win streak
43%
57%
model leanSergei Pavlovich

57% model win probability for the current lean

Read published Oct 16, 2026 · revision 2
  • Earlier read (rev 1, Oct 9, 2026): Alex Pereira 43% vs Sergei Pavlovich 57%; superseded Oct 16, 2026 because the model re-ran.
why the model leans this way

Sergei Pavlovich projects ahead at 57.1%.

  • Sergei Pavlovich has the edge on age
  • Sergei Pavlovich has the edge on readiness after a division move
  • Sergei Pavlovich has the edge on reach
Uncertainty / caveats
  • Winner-only read: this model does not call the method, the round, or whether the fight goes the distance.
  • Incomplete inputs: 1 of 56 measured comparisons were unavailable for this matchup, so the read rests on fewer signals than a fully covered bout.
03Middleweight
locked
Bo Nickal
Div #15P4P #11136M 4-1-0
Win vs Kyle Daukaus • KO/TKO • Jun 14, 2026
2-fight win streak
vs
Joe Pyfer
Div #10P4P #5936M 4-1-0
Win vs Israel Adesanya • KO/TKO • Mar 28, 2026
4-fight win streak
Model probabilities hiddenGet all picks free
04Flyweight
locked
Brandon Moreno
Div #7P4P #14236M 3-3-0
Win vs Joseph Morales • S-DEC • Sep 12, 2026
vs
Charles Johnson
Model probabilities hiddenGet all picks free
05Women's Flyweight
locked
Carli Judice
Div #19P4P #34436M 4-1-0
Win vs Jeisla Chaves • KO/TKO • Aug 22, 2026
4-fight win streak
vs
Maycee Barber
Model probabilities hiddenGet all picks free
06Light Heavyweight
pending
Fighter A
Junior Tafa
Div #42P4P #57936M 2-5-0
Loss vs Iwo Baraniewski • KO/TKO • Jun 6, 2026
vs
Fighter B
Quentin Pasley
Div #37P4P #51136M 1-0-0
Win vs Arlind Berisha • KO/TKO • Sep 8, 2026
—
—
model leanNo lean available

Prediction unavailable

why the model leans this way

No model summary available for this bout yet.

No governed model output is available for this bout yet. Treat the card as incomplete rather than inferring confidence.
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