All events
Event· May 30, 2026

UFC Fight Night: Song vs. Figueiredo

The fight card and the model read for every bout, together. Each read shows the probability split, the reasons behind the lean, and the caveats that matter. The model is early-stage and no live track record has been published yet.

Macau, ChinaCompleted eventPartial slate live13 of 16 bouts with a model read1 without a read (UFC debut)Published Mar 26, 2026 · 64d before the card
Receipt
Read first published
Mar 26, 2026
Lead time
64 days before the card
Read last refreshed
May 6, 2026
Card last checked
Aug 27, 2026, 2:15 AM UTC
Card vs read
In sync

Shown unedited since first publication. The date above is the first publication, not the refresh.

Bouts
16
Model reads
13
Partial slate live
Toss-ups
0
Within half a point of 50/50
Completed
13
Official results recorded
Scored receipt
Model 6 of 9

Every bout with a published read, scored against the official result. One card is a small sample; the running record is what counts.

BoutModelWinner
Deiveson Figueiredo vs Song YadongSong Yadong66%RightSong Yadong
Zhang Mingyang vs Alonzo MenifieldAlonzo Menifield51%RightAlonzo Menifield
Tallison Teixeira vs Sergei PavlovichSergei Pavlovich63%RightSergei Pavlovich
Cameron Smotherman vs Kai AsakuraCameron Smotherman59%WrongKai Asakura
Sumudaerji vs Alex PerezSumudaerji62%No winner
Luis Felipe Dias vs YiSak LeeLuis Felipe Dias66%RightLuis Felipe Dias
Jose Souza vs Ding MengDing Meng66%WrongJose Souza
Aoriqileng vs Cody HaddonCody Haddon66%RightCody Haddon
Xiong Jingnan vs Angela HillAngela Hill66%RightAngela Hill
Loma Lookboonmee vs Jaqueline AmorimLoma Lookboonmee66%WrongJaqueline Amorim
Partial governed prediction coverage
13 of 16 bouts currently have governed model outputs. 3 bouts still render as unavailable until refresh completes.
01Bantamweight
guarded
Fighter A
Deiveson Figueiredo
Div #11P4P #7036M 4-5-0
Loss vs Payton Talbott • KO/TKO • Oct 3, 2026
3-fight losing streak
vs
Fighter B
Song Yadong
Winner
lean
Div #5P4P #3636M 4-2-0
Win vs Umar Nurmagomedov • KO/TKO • Aug 29, 2026
2-fight win streak
34%
66%
model leanSong Yadong

66% model win probability for the current lean, but guarded by volatility or weak-regime caveats

Official result: Song Yadong
SUB • R2 • 4:42
why the model leans this way

Song Yadong projects ahead on current measurable form and matchup profile. Song Yadong has the stronger proven sample in this division.

Risk flags
  • Both fighters carry high finish volatility
Uncertainty / caveats
  • High-volatility matchup: finish variance is elevated and certainty should be discounted.
  • Probability is adjusted against historical outcome bins; no live track record has been published yet.
02Light Heavyweight
guarded
Fighter A
Zhang Mingyang
Div #25P4P #31736M 3-2-0
Loss vs Alonzo Menifield • KO/TKO • May 30, 2026
2-fight losing streak
vs
Fighter B
Alonzo Menifield
Winner
lean
Div #9P4P #10836M 5-3-0
Win vs Iwo Baraniewski • Decision - Split • Sep 19, 2026
2-fight win streak
49%
51%
model leanAlonzo Menifield

51% model win probability for the current lean, but guarded by volatility or weak-regime caveats

Official result: Alonzo Menifield
KO/TKO • R1 • 4:15
why the model leans this way

Alonzo Menifield projects ahead on current measurable form and matchup profile. Alonzo Menifield has the stronger proven sample in this division.

Risk flags
  • Both fighters carry high finish volatility
Uncertainty / caveats
  • High-volatility matchup: finish variance is elevated and certainty should be discounted.
  • Probability is adjusted against historical outcome bins; no live track record has been published yet.
03Heavyweight
guarded
Fighter A
Tallison Teixeira
Div #23P4P #25836M 3-2-0
Loss vs Sergei Pavlovich • KO/TKO • May 30, 2026
vs
Fighter B
Sergei Pavlovich
Winner
lean
Div #6P4P #4736M 3-2-0
Win vs Tallison Teixeira • KO/TKO • May 30, 2026
3-fight win streak
37%
63%
model leanSergei Pavlovich

63% model win probability for the current lean, but guarded by volatility or weak-regime caveats

Official result: Sergei Pavlovich
KO/TKO • R1 • 0:39
why the model leans this way

Sergei Pavlovich projects ahead on current measurable form and matchup profile. Sergei Pavlovich has the stronger proven sample in this division.

Risk flags
  • Both fighters carry high finish volatility
Uncertainty / caveats
  • High-volatility matchup: finish variance is elevated and certainty should be discounted.
  • Probability is adjusted against historical outcome bins; no live track record has been published yet.
04Bantamweight
guarded
Fighter A
Cameron Smotherman
lean
Div #84P4P #66836M 1-3-0
Loss vs Kai Asakura • KO/TKO • May 30, 2026
3-fight losing streak
vs
Fighter B
Kai Asakura
Winner
Div #53P4P #46036M 2-2-0
Win vs Aoriqileng • KO/TKO • Aug 29, 2026
2-fight win streak
59%
41%
model leanCameron Smotherman

59% model win probability for the current lean, but guarded by volatility or weak-regime caveats

Official result: Kai Asakura
KO/TKO • R1 • 1:50
why the model leans this way

Cameron Smotherman projects ahead on current measurable form and matchup profile. Cameron Smotherman holds the clearer form edge. Cameron Smotherman has the stronger proven sample in this division. Cameron Smotherman has the clearer incumbency edge in this division. Cameron Smotherman has shown more recent division stability. Division-transition caution: Kai Asakura is making a division debut; Kai Asakura is moving up in weight.

  • Cameron Smotherman shows the clearer form edge
Risk flags
  • Kai Asakura division debut
  • Kai Asakura moving up in weight
Uncertainty / caveats
  • Known weak regime: stable-incumbent-versus-mover fights remain less trustworthy than the overall stack.
  • Kai Asakura is making a division debut
  • Kai Asakura is moving up in weight
  • One fighter is moving up against a stable incumbent
  • At least one fighter has thin recent sample coverage behind the proxy stats
05Welterweight
guarded
Fighter A
Muslim Salikhov
Div #32P4P #22036M 3-3-0
Loss vs Ignacio Bahamondes • Decision - Unanimous • Sep 12, 2026
2-fight losing streak
vs
Fighter B
Jake Matthews
lean
Div #21P4P #12936M 4-2-0
Win vs Carlston Harris • U-DEC • May 30, 2026
34%
66%
model leanJake Matthews

66% model win probability for the current lean, but guarded by volatility or weak-regime caveats

why the model leans this way

Jake Matthews projects ahead on current measurable form and matchup profile. Jake Matthews holds the clearer form edge. Jake Matthews holds the clearer grappling edge. Jake Matthews has the stronger proven sample in this division.

  • Jake Matthews shows the clearer form edge
  • Jake Matthews shows the clearer grappling edge
Risk flags
  • Both fighters carry high finish volatility
Uncertainty / caveats
  • High-volatility matchup: finish variance is elevated and certainty should be discounted.
  • Probability is adjusted against historical outcome bins; no live track record has been published yet.
06Welterweight
pending
Fighter A
Carlston Harris
Div #60P4P #48236M 0-3-0
Loss vs Jake Matthews • U-DEC • May 30, 2026
3-fight losing streak
vs
Fighter B
Jake Matthews
Winner
Div #21P4P #12936M 4-2-0
Win vs Carlston Harris • U-DEC • May 30, 2026
—
—
model leanNo lean available

Prediction unavailable

Official result: Jake Matthews
U-DEC • R3 • 5:00
why the model leans this way

No model summary available for this bout yet.

No governed model output is available for this bout yet. Treat the card as incomplete rather than inferring confidence.
07Flyweight
guarded
Fighter A
Sumudaerji
lean
Div #18P4P #27636M 4-2-0
Win vs Alex Perez • Decision - Unanimous • Aug 29, 2026
4-fight win streak
vs
Fighter B
Alex Perez
Div #20P4P #28836M 2-4-0
Loss vs Sumudaerji • Decision - Unanimous • Aug 29, 2026
62%
38%
model leanSumudaerji

62% model win probability for the current lean, but guarded by volatility or weak-regime caveats

Official result
CNC • R2 • 1:45
why the model leans this way

Sumudaerji projects ahead on current measurable form and matchup profile. Sumudaerji holds the clearer form edge.

  • Sumudaerji shows the clearer form edge
Risk flags
  • Both fighters carry high finish volatility
Uncertainty / caveats
  • High-volatility matchup: finish variance is elevated and certainty should be discounted.
  • Probability is adjusted against historical outcome bins; no live track record has been published yet.
08Middleweight
guarded
Fighter A
Luis Felipe Dias
Winner
lean
Div #66P4P #57336M 2-1-0
Loss vs Matthieu Duclos • KO/TKO • Sep 5, 2026
vs
Fighter B
YiSak Lee
Div #80P4P #73536M 0-1-0
Loss vs Luis Felipe Dias • KO/TKO • May 30, 2026
66%
34%
model leanLuis Felipe Dias

66% model win probability for the current lean, but guarded by volatility or weak-regime caveats

Official result: Luis Felipe Dias
KO/TKO • R1 • 3:40
why the model leans this way

Luis Felipe Dias projects ahead on current measurable form and matchup profile. Luis Felipe Dias holds the clearer grappling edge. Luis Felipe Dias has the clearer incumbency edge in this division. Division-transition caution: Luis Felipe Dias is only in a second fight in this division; YiSak Lee is making a division debut.

  • Luis Felipe Dias shows the clearer grappling edge
Risk flags
  • Luis Felipe Dias low recent sample
  • YiSak Lee low recent sample
  • YiSak Lee division debut
Uncertainty / caveats
  • Luis Felipe Dias is only in a second fight in this division
  • YiSak Lee is making a division debut
  • At least one fighter has thin recent sample coverage behind the proxy stats
  • Probability is adjusted against historical outcome bins; no live track record has been published yet.
09Welterweight
guarded
Fighter A
Jose Souza
Winner
Div #73P4P #62836M 1-0-0
Win vs Ding Meng • S-DEC • May 30, 2026
vs
Fighter B
Ding Meng
lean
Div #93P4P #82636M 0-3-0
Loss vs Cam Nelson • Decision - Unanimous • Aug 29, 2026
3-fight losing streak
34%
66%
model leanDing Meng

66% model win probability for the current lean, but guarded by volatility or weak-regime caveats

Official result: Jose Souza
S-DEC • R3 • 5:00
why the model leans this way

Ding Meng projects ahead on current measurable form and matchup profile. Jose Henrique holds the clearer activity edge. Ding Meng holds the clearer grappling edge. Division-transition caution: Ding Meng is only in a second fight in this division; At least one fighter has thin recent sample coverage behind the proxy stats.

  • Ding Meng shows the clearer grappling edge
Risk flags
  • Ding Meng long layoff
  • Jose Henrique low recent sample
  • Ding Meng low recent sample
Uncertainty / caveats
  • Ding Meng is only in a second fight in this division
  • At least one fighter has thin recent sample coverage behind the proxy stats
  • Probability is adjusted against historical outcome bins; no live track record has been published yet.
10Bantamweight
guarded
Fighter A
Aoriqileng
Div #68P4P #58336M 1-3-0
Loss vs Kai Asakura • KO/TKO • Aug 29, 2026
2-fight losing streak
vs
Fighter B
Cody Haddon
Winner
lean
Div #36P4P #31836M 3-0-0
Win vs Aoriqileng • KO/TKO • May 30, 2026
3-fight win streak
34%
66%
model leanCody Haddon

66% model win probability for the current lean, but guarded by volatility or weak-regime caveats

Official result: Cody Haddon
KO/TKO • R2 • 2:11
why the model leans this way

Cody Haddon projects ahead on current measurable form and matchup profile. Cody Haddon holds the clearer form edge. Cody Haddon holds the clearer grappling edge. Division-transition caution: At least one fighter has thin recent sample coverage behind the proxy stats; The matchup has uneven recent sample coverage between the fighters.

  • Cody Haddon shows the clearer form edge
  • Cody Haddon shows the clearer grappling edge
Risk flags
  • Cody Haddon long layoff
  • Both fighters carry high finish volatility
Uncertainty / caveats
  • High-volatility matchup: finish variance is elevated and certainty should be discounted.
  • At least one fighter has thin recent sample coverage behind the proxy stats
  • The matchup has uneven recent sample coverage between the fighters
  • Probability is adjusted against historical outcome bins; no live track record has been published yet.
11Bantamweight
pending
Fighter A
Luis Gurule
Div #65P4P #55836M 2-4-0
Loss vs Rei Tsuruya • SUB • May 30, 2026
vs
Fighter B
Rei Tsuruya
Winner
Div #12P4P #20536M 4-1-0
Win vs Kevin Borjas • Submission • Aug 29, 2026
2-fight win streak
—
—
model leanNo lean available

Prediction unavailable

Official result: Rei Tsuruya
SUB • R1 • 3:19
why the model leans this way

No model summary available for this bout yet.

No governed model output is available for this bout yet. Treat the card as incomplete rather than inferring confidence.
12Flyweight
guarded
Fighter A
Rei Tsuruya
Div #12P4P #20536M 4-1-0
Win vs Kevin Borjas • Submission • Aug 29, 2026
2-fight win streak
vs
Fighter B
Jesus Aguilar
lean
Div #31P4P #42536M 3-2-0
Loss vs Sumudaerji • U-DEC • Mar 7, 2026
45%
55%
model leanJesus Aguilar

55% model win probability for the current lean, but guarded by volatility or weak-regime caveats

why the model leans this way

Jesus Aguilar projects ahead on current measurable form and matchup profile. Jesus Aguilar holds the clearer activity edge. Jesus Aguilar has the stronger proven sample in this division.

  • Jesus Aguilar shows the clearer activity edge
Risk flags
  • Rei Tsuruya long layoff
  • Both fighters carry high finish volatility
Uncertainty / caveats
  • High-volatility matchup: finish variance is elevated and certainty should be discounted.
  • Probability is adjusted against historical outcome bins; no live track record has been published yet.
13Women's Strawweight
guarded
Fighter A
Xiong Jingnan
Div #46P4P #71536M 0-2-0
Loss vs Julia Polastri • KO/TKO • Aug 29, 2026
2-fight losing streak
vs
Fighter B
Angela Hill
Winner
lean
Div #18P4P #30536M 4-3-0
Win vs Xiong Jingnan • U-DEC • May 30, 2026
34%
66%
model leanAngela Hill

66% model win probability for the current lean, but guarded by volatility or weak-regime caveats

Official result: Angela Hill
U-DEC • R3 • 5:00
why the model leans this way

Angela Hill projects ahead on current measurable form and matchup profile. Angela Hill holds the clearer grappling edge. Angela Hill has the stronger proven sample in this division. Angela Hill has the clearer incumbency edge in this division. Division-transition caution: Xiong Jingnan is making a division debut; At least one fighter has thin recent sample coverage behind the proxy stats.

  • Angela Hill shows the clearer grappling edge
Risk flags
  • Xiong Jingnan low recent sample
  • Xiong Jingnan division debut
Uncertainty / caveats
  • Xiong Jingnan is making a division debut
  • At least one fighter has thin recent sample coverage behind the proxy stats
  • The matchup has uneven recent sample coverage between the fighters
  • Probability is adjusted against historical outcome bins; no live track record has been published yet.
14Featherweight
no read
Rodrigo Vera
Winner
Div #42P4P #33736M 1-0-0
Win vs Zhu Kangjie • KO/TKO • May 30, 2026
vs
Zhu Kangjie
Div #51P4P #39736M 3-1-0
Loss vs Rodrigo Vera • KO/TKO • May 30, 2026
Official result: Rodrigo Vera
KO/TKO • R1 • 1:50
No read on this bout

Rodrigo Vera has no UFC history. FightIndex does not predict a debut on no data, so the record only carries reads that had evidence behind them.

15Featherweight
guarded
Fighter A
Zhu Kangjie
lean
Div #51P4P #39736M 3-1-0
Loss vs Rodrigo Vera • KO/TKO • May 30, 2026
vs
Fighter B
Ramon Taveras
Div #81P4P #60636M 1-2-0
Loss vs Jack Jenkins • U-DEC • Sep 27, 2025
2-fight losing streak
66%
34%
model leanZhu Kangjie

66% model win probability for the current lean, but guarded by volatility or weak-regime caveats

why the model leans this way

Zhu Kangjie projects ahead on current measurable form and matchup profile. Zhu Kangjie holds the clearer form edge. Zhu Kangjie holds the clearer activity edge. Zhu Kangjie has the stronger proven sample in this division. Zhu Kangjie has the clearer incumbency edge in this division. Zhu Kangjie has shown more recent division stability. Division-transition caution: Ramon Taveras is only in a second fight in this division; Proxy-stat sample coverage is only moderate for this matchup.

  • Zhu Kangjie shows the clearer form edge
  • Zhu Kangjie shows the clearer activity edge
Risk flags
  • Both fighters carry high finish volatility
Uncertainty / caveats
  • High-volatility matchup: finish variance is elevated and certainty should be discounted.
  • Ramon Taveras is only in a second fight in this division
  • Proxy-stat sample coverage is only moderate for this matchup
  • Probability is adjusted against historical outcome bins; no live track record has been published yet.
16Women's Strawweight
guarded
Fighter A
Loma Lookboonmee
lean
Div #30P4P #48136M 2-2-0
Loss vs Jaqueline Amorim • SUB • May 30, 2026
2-fight losing streak
vs
Fighter B
Jaqueline Amorim
Winner
Div #13P4P #26836M 4-1-0
Win vs Loma Lookboonmee • SUB • May 30, 2026
66%
34%
model leanLoma Lookboonmee

66% model win probability for the current lean, but guarded by volatility or weak-regime caveats

Official result: Jaqueline Amorim
SUB • R1 • 4:04
why the model leans this way

Loma Lookboonmee projects ahead on current measurable form and matchup profile. Loma Lookboonmee has the stronger proven sample in this division.

Risk flags
  • Both fighters carry high finish volatility
Uncertainty / caveats
  • High-volatility matchup: finish variance is elevated and certainty should be discounted.
  • Probability is adjusted against historical outcome bins; no live track record has been published yet.